Mr. Samuel Greenholtz

GLG News by Mr. Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

GLG News is now G+ Insights

G+ is a community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs to connect through online discussions and in-person meetings. You will continue to see G+ Insights (formerly GLG News) here as well as on the G+ website, where you can share and discuss the G+ Insights you read.

Telecom Pragmatics' Hardball: What Market Recovery?

June 27, 2010

While both AT&T and Verizon have indicated that their CAPEX budgets are flexible (translate that to mean cuts) they have tried to remain active in building out wireline networks, according to Telecom Pragmatics.   However, it has become increasingly clear that the recovery forecasted for this year is not happening in any substantial manner.  The latest blow to both companies came with the announcement that the secondary housing market lost ground in the last month.

Telecom Pragmatics’ Hardball: Infinera’s Choice

June 12, 2010

To continue to pursue 40G on a PIC would not allow Infinera to make the statement that “this change is neutral to OpEx in 2010, and we intend to continue to bring R&D as a percent of revenue down year over year assuming moderate revenue growth.”  At the same time, there will be a price to pay in terms of customers’ confidence in the future development of the chip.   On the positive side, Infinera continues to offer novel solutions for problems from the engineers’ perspective.

Telecom Pragmatics’ Hardball: Intel $ Directly Tied to Clearwire City Turn-Ups?

June 4, 2010

It seems that how much money Clearwire gets from Intel depends on how many cities it turns up at a particular time, according to Telecom Pragmatics.   Evidently, the wireless carrier has a clear incentive to penetrate more cities rather than fewer. Therefore, there could be an increased chance of Clearwire overextending itself in the market.

Telecom Pragmatics’ Hardball: Follow FiOS Map for Bulk of VZ LTE Cities

May 30, 2010

The first 25 to 30 4G cities are expected to be operating by second quarter of 2011 for Verizon Wireless, according to Telecom Pragmatics.  Mainly the FiOS cities, including those outside of its incumbent landline territory, will be targeted.   In the past, we have written about the long-term strategic importance of Verizon ultimately tying its LTE network with FiOS. 

Telecom Pragmatics’ Hardball: Apple’s iPhone Remaining Exclusive to AT&T?

May 22, 2010

We wrote in a recent Hardball article that “the latest indications are that Apple has no current intentions of doing business with Verizon on a 4G device.  One problem is that Verizon’s top leadership has apparently been highly arrogant in its dealings with Apple."  Yet, the bigger reason for potentially passing a 2nd time on the iPhone (including one that works on 3G) is that it is a big bandwidth hog and Verizon’s network could be adversely affected with consumers downloading videos, etc.

Telecom Pragmatics Hardball: Shift to 3G EVDO Rev B by Verizon Wireless

May 15, 2010

Our company, Telecom Pragmatics, is finding it increasingly difficult to find people at Verizon that do not believe that the wireless service provider is going with Rev B.   The only individuals that seem to be in the dark about it are the public relations people at the company.  In fact, it is not out of the question that a Rev B upgrade could occur as quickly as the start of next year.

Hardball 4/29/10: CenturyTel Blindsided Frontier Communications on Qwest?

April 29, 2010

Just as SBC blindsided Verizon with the acquisition of BellSouth, it appears that the timing of CenturyTel’s purchase of Qwest shocked Frontier. Although Frontier apparently had it eyes set on Qwest, it never fathomed that CenturyTel would pull the trigger before closing the Embarq acquisition. The more important point is that the integration of two large IOCs with one RBOC is unprecedented and will be a tremendous challenge.

Hardball: 4/29/10: Verizon’s FiOS Likely Cutting Back to 16M Homes Passed

April 29, 2010

Apparently, the current plan at Verizon is to not reach the original goal of 18 million homes passed for FiOS. At the moment, jobs are just being completed and no new work is being requested. The RBOC may be finishing up for several years into the future.

Hardball 4/29/10: What could Jumpstart Verizon’s FiOS?

April 29, 2010

It is widely believed that if Verizon gets between 35–40% take-rate of existing FiOS infrastructure, then it would expand into new areas, but still remain out of those locations that are considered rural.  There would not be a rapid build-out – it would be slow-paced with minimal CAPEX budget requirements.  Copper network replacement would be a more likely candidate for new FiOS installations than an overbuild.

Hardball 4/29/10: Calix Gets its Tier 1 Customer with CenturyTel/Qwest Merger

April 29, 2010

Some industry observers believe that Calix was going to make an acquisition for a vendor in the cable TV space in order to get a solid Tier 1 presence.   We believe this idea is questionable because the CEO’s philosophy has been that the only reason to pay for consolidation of competition is to acquire a technology that allows the supplier to better compete. Calix appears to have at least adequate solutions for the CATV space.

Hardball 4/29/10: Verizon Wireless Hurting Big Time Now?

April 29, 2010

Astonishingly, there appears to be cracks at the top of the Verizon management over whether its full plans for 4G are guaranteed. Apparently, some thought is being given to 3G being better in the long run – going to Rev B and Rev C of EVDO.  One of the reasons for concern is that AT&T seems to be actually serious about upgrading about 13,000 cell sites this year to a full 3G capability.

Hardball 3/28/10: Ciena’s “What’s Next is Now” Campaign is Pathetic

March 28, 2010

There is a very short video of Ciena’s CEO that is repetitive and meaningless.  It does not provide the following: “explain why this acquisition is transformational for the industry, how it expands Ciena's global influence, and what you can expect next for your network.” While the video uses all of the appropriate marketing-hype code words, “converged,” “focused," etc., it does not provide any concrete details on how Ciena’s acquisition will make more money for itself or for its customers.

Hardball 3/28/10: Ciena’s New “Whipping Boy”?

March 28, 2010

Analysis of:Ciena/Nortel Product Plans Revealed | www.lightreading.com

Ciena’s CEO appears to have the board, the marketing department, and the CFO firmly under his control. Now it seems that product R&D will likely be run with the appointment of an outside executive. If the rationalization of Ciena’s product lines does not go very well, which is quite likely, the ex-Nortel President of MEN will make a convenient scapegoat.

Hardball 3/28/10: Calix’s Successful IPO

March 28, 2010

Calix’s IPO was a success partially because the stock of the price did not go down. It was given an adequate amount of room to run. The institutional investors and Calix’s CEO appear to have bent over backwards to come out with a very conservative offering.

Hardball 3/28/10: Amateur Hour at the FCC

March 28, 2010

The new FCC National Broadband Plan appears to be a joke. Spending about $15 billion is not nearly sufficient. A minimum of $100 billion is probably necessary for any plan to be taken seriously.

Hardball 3/22/10: CAPEX Budget Update

March 22, 2010

Has the telecom market recovered from the latest recession? While the market picked up significantly to end 2009 with a very strong fourth quarter, the first quarter of 2010 has seen a less than booming business.  Early predictions of growth in the CAPEX budgets have been replaced with a tempered view of matching that of last year.

Hardball 3/19/10: My Personal Outage with Verizon

March 19, 2010

Verizon has been seemingly cruising along on a path of solid returns and continuing expansion of new services.   However, some recent personal experiences may indicate things are not going as well as one might think.  My home telephone (landline) went out of service the other day.

Hardball 3/18/10: AT&T’s Domain Vendors

March 18, 2010

Analysis of:A peak inside AT&T’s preferred ‘domain’ supplier list | blog.connectedplanetonline.com

1) In retrospect, AT&T should have divided up the IP domain into two – core and edge. 2) It would make sense for Nokia Siemens Networks to partner with Fujitsu because the former is an incumbent at the service provider on the long-haul DWDM side.  3) We continue to believe that Ciena’s optical switches will get the lion’s share of sales at the carrier, regardless of the second vendor.

Hardball 3/18/10: Verizon Never Really Had Small-Town FiOS Plans

March 18, 2010

Analysis of:Has Verizon scaled back its FiOS (especially small-town) plans? | blog.connectedplanetonline.com

Where is it actually documented that Verizon ever had a strategy that would include small towns? Is not the RBOC trying to rid itself of as many of these lines as possible? One needs again to go back to the original game plan established in the 1980s.

Hardball 3/15/10: Ciena Desperate for Customers Again?

March 15, 2010

Ciena substantially overpaid for Nortel’s optical assets. It is beginning to take on debt. Yet, its recent announcements of customer wins hardly provide a great deal of confidence for a company that has supposedly entered the big leagues.

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