Mr. Samuel Greenholtz

GLG News by Mr. Samuel Greenholtz, Principal

GLG News is now G+ Insights

G+ is a community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs to connect through online discussions and in-person meetings. You will continue to see G+ Insights (formerly GLG News) here as well as on the G+ website, where you can share and discuss the G+ Insights you read.

Hardball 3/14/10: Recent Court Decision Unlikely to Derail VZ/FTR Deal

March 14, 2010

Both Verizon and Frontier have made tremendous strides in the regulatory communities to get the sale of lines approved. We believe that the Illinois utility commissioners will ultimately support the deal. In the meantime, Verizon will undoubtedly need to come up with a contingency plan just in case.

Hardball 2/26/10: Possible CATV Move from High-Cost CMTS to Control Plane

February 26, 2010

Analysis of:Comcast Proposes Its God Box | www.lightreading.com

Internal studies at the cable companies are causing a lot of concern.  The current network model for CATV companies cannot sustain the projected growth in capacity demand for data solutions. We expect a dramatic increase in CMTS cost that will have to be managed.

Hardball 2/26/10: Alcatel-Lucent Continues to Shine with GPON

February 26, 2010

Analysis of:AlcaLu Unveils New ONTs | www.lightreading.com

Despite all of its difficulties in general, Alcatel-Lucent remains a powerhouse with its GPON business.  In terms of providing the highest level of performance, it seems to still be among the top suppliers. Verizon will continue to use AlcaLu’s GPON solutions in a big way.

Hardball 2/25/10: Can Level 3 Can “Step Up” Its Financial Position?

February 25, 2010

Analysis of:Level 3 Channel Steps Up Its Game | www.phoneplusmag.com

According to the Level 3 executive, “We made it clear to our direct sales team and our partners that we were not going to look at on-net vs. off-net as a good vs. evil battle.” The apparent emphasis away from an aggressive last mile deployment strategy will certainly help operations costs. However, not looking to be less of a me-too CLEC is hardly a good sign for its overall business.

Hardball 2/25/10: Cisco's Stealth Pickup of a Second DPI Vendor

February 25, 2010

Analysis of:Telecom vendor M&A heats up | connectedplanetonline.com

Yes, “Cisco [System‘s]...recent acquisition...of Starent...seems to have kicked off a mini-trend of large vendors swallowing up upstarts to fill key technology holes."  However, one of the gaps for Cisco was supposedly plugged up over six years ago. Its purchase of P-cube appears to have been a bust.

Hardball 2/24/10: CLWR Doesn’t Have Stuff to Compete Against Anyone

February 24, 2010

Analysis of:Handicapping Clearwire | www.lightreading.com

Right at the moment, Clearwire and Sprint do have a monopoly over the 4G space. Its dominant position will be short-lived. Verizon Wireless will do everything that is necessary to dominate the next-generation wireless market.

Hardball 2/23/10: Quarter of AT&T’s IPTV Subs In 2 TX Cities Revealing

February 23, 2010

Analysis of:AT&T Touts U-verse TV Gains In Texas | www.multichannel.com

Dallas happens to be the headquarters for AT&T. One still does not know what percentage of its total IPTV subs are still actually employees of the RBOC. AT&T always had a heavier concentration of FTTP than FTTN in Houston.

Hardball 2/21/10: Other Possibilities for Verizon’s CEO Quiet Period

February 21, 2010

Analysis of:More Pennsylvanians Have Access to Fast, Affordable Verizon High Speed Internet Service | www.marketwatch.com

In the last analysis, we speculated on the reasons for not hearing from Verizon’s CEO in a while. We looked at the possible sale of further landline assets happening earlier, allowing for the full purchase of Verizon Wireless. However, the budget may be a stronger cause.

Hardball 2/20/10: Why is Verizon's CEO Being Kept Under Wraps?

February 20, 2010

Analysis of:Verizon-Frontier: Ohio Approves Sale With Provisions | www.phoneplusmag.com

It has happened before.  Right before a big change at Verizon, Ivan Seidenberg will appear to be sequestered.  What are some of the logical possibilities?

Hardball 2/19/10: Should We Believe AT&T on Wireless CAPEX This Time?

February 19, 2010

Analysis of:AT&T: Improving 3G network the major focus of 2010 | connectedplanetonline.com

AT&T has sat back while its wireless network has not been kept up adequately. Is there any reason to believe that network investments will come before dividends? We believe that AT&T probably knows it is not likely to retain exclusivity on Apple’s iPhone.

Hardball 2/17/10: Time for Alcatel-Lucent to Pack Up Bags in States?

February 17, 2010

Analysis of:Report: Ciena Scores at AT&T | www.lightreading.com

We wrote in May of last year an article titled “Alcatel-Lucent Could Easily Become a Non-Factor in US Soon.” In that piece we said, “Anybody in sourcing at a US large carrier is starting to think about the long-term viability of [the supplier].” Assuming the speculation in the source article is correct, a Ciena win would be a major blow to any hopes of reviving the market space for AlcaLu.

Hardball 1/22/10: For the Last Time -- Google Doesn't Want to be a Telco

January 22, 2010

Analysis of:Has Google found its true calling? | brainstormtech.blogs.fortune.cnn.com

Approaching two years ago we asked: “Why would a company that does an excruciatingly amount of cost analysis be attracted to a high-capital, potentially low-margin business?"  Google has no interest in “disrupting the telecommunications industry.” All of its investments in networks have only one goal -- to allow the users to connect to the cloud.

Hardball 1/15/10: VZ’s New Pricing Focus on Just LTE Types of Subs

January 15, 2010

Analysis of:Verizon Wireless Offers Simple, Affordable Convenience With New Unlimited Voice Plans | www.thestreet.com

The situation is analogous to Verizon on the wireline side in which residential customers that just get POTS are unattractive because they are not profitable for the carrier. In the same way, a bigger proportion of the lower-end wireless subscribers is less likely to pay on time and requires customer support for cheaper handsets. In going from over 80 skews down to a 50-skew lineup – and then reduced significantly from there – the stress is not likely to be on the “simple feature phones.”

Hardball 1/1/3/10: Apple’s 3G iPhone Expected at VZ Starting as Early as June

January 13, 2010

Analysis of:AT&T Gets a Bushel of Apple Bruising | www.thestreet.com

In December of last year we anticipated that Apple’s Tablet will work on Verizon Wireless’ 4G network by the second quarter of 2010. However, it appears that Apple’s iPhone will be used on Verizon’s 3G network starting as early as June. As the Verizon door continues to open further for Apple’s products, one could speculate even more on other future opportunities for the vendor at the wireless carrier. 

Hardball 1/8/10: Never a Better Time to Negotiate with VZ on Equipment?

January 8, 2010

Analysis of:Verizon's Wellbrock on router OC-768 port prices | www.lightwaveonline.com

It is hard to remember Verizon ever making a statement like “the router vendors are asking too much money for OC-768 interfaces.” In other words, the RBOC would not try to put public pressure on vendors, such as Cisco Systems and Juniper Networks, to get pricing down – with the logical expectation that one of the two would be in a position to get additional business. The explanation could be that the sourcing department is currently at a disadvantage.

Hardball 1/7/10: Don’t Underrate Value of Qwest’s LD to Independents

January 7, 2010

Analysis of:Qwest shops its LD network again (with local attached) | telephonyonline.com

Now that Qwest might be shopping itself as a full company, there may be less stress placed on its long-haul network by industry analysts. Certainly, the acquisition of cities, including several Tier 1s, would have the most worth. However, it should be remembered that the biggest reason why the CenturyTel/Embarq merger happened was the former’s interexchange network.

Hardball 1/5/10: Would NSN Need to Make Mr. Smith its CEO to Get a Deal Done?

January 5, 2010

Analysis of:Ciena Shares Soar on Nokia Rumor | www.thestreet.com

It is our understanding that Ciena has a poison pill provision that was put in place a couple of years ago. It would just add to the hostility in the event of a hostile takeover. We just do not believe that Ciena’s CEO, Gary Smith, will be quick to give up his powerful position at the company.

Hardball 1/4/10: Is AT&T Forcing the Filing of an Antitrust Case by the Feds?

January 4, 2010

Analysis of:AT&T and the end of POTS | telephonyonline.com

Last summer, we wrote, “One wonders whether [AT&T’s] CEO would partially welcome [the] prospect [of an antitrust suit] as a way to unload large assets from this unwieldy monstrosity created by his predecessor.” The carrier’s extraordinary response back to the FCC that it wants to dump the PSTN could result in the start of such thinking by the government.  It certainly fits in with well with AT&T’s current mentality that it wants to spend as little as possible on its networks.

Hardball 1/3/10: Expect Google’s Nexus One More Competitive with Apple’s iPhone

January 3, 2010

Analysis of:Google's Very Own Android Launch | www.thestreet.com

There have been questions over whether any handset company could ever rival Apple’s iPhone. We recently wrote: “It appears that Verizon’s Droid just does not reach the level of attraction of the iPhone.”  However, we expect the Nexus One, which will offer a new version of the operating system, to be very much like its arch-competitor. 

Hardball 1/2/10: Calix IPO: Supplier’s 4thQ Should be Impressive

January 2, 2010

Analysis of:Next Year's Big IPO | online.barrons.com

CenturyLink does a large amount of business with Calix. The supplier is having a hard time meeting its ship dates at the moment because it has been slammed with orders from the largest IOC. It is certainly outside of normal production for Calix.

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