Mr. Jeff Gould

GLG News^SM Analyses by Jeff Gould

GLG News is now G+ Insights

G+ is a community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs to connect through online discussions and in-person meetings. You will continue to see G+ Insights (formerly GLG News) here as well as on the G+ website, where you can share and discuss the G+ Insights you read.

Oracle to Red Hat: It’s Not Your Father’s Linux Market Anymore

October 19, 2010

Oracle is having a new go at Red Hat. But this time, instead of a RHEL clone, it’s offering an improved version of Linux designed to optimize the performance of its own hardware and software. Although it won’t deal a knockout blow to Red Hat, Oracle’s Linux will certainly take share in the large Oracle database, middleware and application installed bases (and may further marginalize Suse). Like Google’s Android, it suggests that Linux is beginning to fragment in the same way that Unix did.

Novell opens the kimono on Microsoft deal

November 8, 2006

Analysis of:Novell's SEC filing about Microsoft deal | www.sec.gov

Microsoft is paying Novell $240 million to distribute its brand of Linux. This is equivalent to guaranteeing Novell's current Linux revenue run rate for the next five years. This suggests that the deal is not a PR ploy, but reflects certain market realities.

In a nutshell, Microsoft is doing this because it knows many of its customers will insist on keeping Linux in their datacenters alongside the future Longhorn Server, but it wants to contain the rival OS by getting users to run it on the planned Longhorn virtualization layer (aka Viridian).

The mutual patent covenant part of the deal, which will lead to a net Microsoft payment to Novell of approximately $68 million, seems essentially unrelated to the virtualization angle.

Red Hat comes out swinging – will it be enough?

November 7, 2006

Analysis of:Red Hat: We will be here in one year, Novell will not | searchopensource.techtarget.com

While Red Hat has been careful to measure its words when speaking in public about Oracle (still a valued partner, according to the "Unfakeable Linux" page on Red Hat's web site), it is in no mood to take any lip from pesky Linux competitor Novell. In a rare public interview, Red Hat's senior lawyer slams Novell and goes so far as to predict that its rival will be out of the Linux business a year from now.

Red Hat management's line is that neither the Oracle announcement nor the Microsoft-Novell deal affect the fundamentals of its business, and that its rivals are merely engaging in empty theatrics with the purpose of driving down the price of RHAT stock.

How Microsoft quantifies corporate IT culture to forecast Vista adoption

October 20, 2006

Analysis of:Running The Numbers On Vista | www.informationweek.com

InformationWeek has an interesting story on some recent internal research at Microsoft that attempts to project Vista adoption on corporate desktops.

Despite the delays, missteps and uncertainty that have cast a shadow on Microsoft's long march towards Vista, it would be wrong to assume the company doesn't have a detailed plan for taking the product to the all-important corporate desktop. In typical Microsoft fashion, they have an extremely precise quantitative forecast of who will adopt Vista, when, and why. Their numbers might be wrong, but it's instructive to follow their reasoning.

In a nutshell, based on its surveys of Vista beta testers and its experience with previous big Windows releases (e.g. XP), Microsoft expects that somewhere in the low double digits of companies will convert to Vista desktops in the first year following release, probably 12% to 16%. The takeaway from this is not the number itself (whether you think it is low or high), but the implication that Windows client revenue in FY07 is not as vulnerable to unexpected delays in Vista uptake as one might imagine.

By an interesting analogy, because Vista adoption will be driven partly by the degree to which corporate cultures are ready for high levels of IT automation, the analysis also has implications for the adoption of SOA.