Dr. Michel Leonard

Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, Alliant Insurance | A Blackstone Group Company

Member of the Financial Services Council

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Council Member Biography

Michel Léonard, PhD is Senior Vice President & Chief Economist for Alliant Insurance Services, the insurance brokerage firm and risk advisor owned by the Blackstone Group of Company. Dr. Léonard's expertise is quantifying and translating political and credit risk for specific companies, transactions and portfolios. His ratings and financial models have enabled the completion of $10 billion in corporate expansion, acquisitions and private equity, and contributed to Alpha on more than $100 billion in multi-assets global portfolios. He started his career with Richard Medley, George Soros' former chief policy strategist. In 2004, he joined Aon as the youngest Chief Economist at a Fortune 200. In 2007, he launched Alliant's Global Macro Analytics on Bloomberg. In 2010, his forecasts outperformed 98% of his peers. His work has been featured in the NYT, FT and WSJ. A graduate of McGill, he holds an MTS from Harvard and an MA and PhD in Political Economy from the University of Virginia. (This is me - Update Profile)

Employment History

2006 - Unspecified: Chief Economist & Macro Strategist, Alliant Insurance | A Blackstone Group Company
2004 - 2005: Chief Economist & Head of Consulting, AON CORPORATION
2001 - 2004: Director, MEDLEY GLOBAL ADVISORS

GLG News^SM Analyses by Michel Leonard

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2011 Global Macro Risk Ratings

April 1, 2011

Alliant released its Global Macro Ratings for 2011. These cover political & economic risk in 175 countries. The last several weeks in the Middle East brought back political risk to the fore of global investors and markets. Looking to 2011, we forecasts increased headwinds for Emerging Markets, an increase in the threat of renationalisation in the oil & energy sector, and more sovereign risk contagion from Europe.

EU Sovereign Debt Crisis: From Monetary to Fiscal Union

June 15, 2010

The EU bailout of Greece marks a turning point in Europe's integration. By instructing the ECB to buy sovereign bonds, the EU is moving from monetary to fiscal union with, on one hand, immediate impact on monetary policy and, on the other hand, mid to long-term implications for sovereign debt valuation in the region. The article below provides a framework to anticipate likelihood and depth of sovereign crises, at risk countries in Europe, and quantifies impact on sovereign debt and currencies.

EU Sovereign Crisis: From Monetary to Fiscal Union

May 18, 2010

The EU bailout of Greece marks a turning point in Europe's economic integration. We conducted a review of Europe's balance sheets and identified 8 countries most at risk, including Turkey, Spain and Belgium. Read more about the impact of TARP For Sovereigns on sovereign ratings, the end of the Deutschmark-Euro, and GDP growth in Europe and the US below or contact Dr. Leonard.

2010 Global Economic Outlook: Restructuring Not Recovery

January 21, 2010

Analysis of:IMF Boosts Global 2010 Economic Outlook | online.wsj.com

In its 2010 Global Macro & Strategy Outlook, Dr. Michel Leonard, Alliant's Chief Economist, makes the case for slower than expected growth across the US and G20. With Emerging Markets the only growth markets, Alliant's 2010 Outlook calls on investors to look at Emerging Markets such as Malaysia and the Philippines where growth is driven by domestic demand, as opposed to countries relying on exports and trade such as China and Brazil.

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