Mr. Thomas Merrick

GLG News^SM Analyses by Thomas Merrick

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The next wave of nukes

December 21, 2007

Analysis of:Duke plans to spend $160B next year on nuke plant | www.bizjournals.com

A "new wave" of nuclear power reactors has arrived.  Submittal of license applications by five major Utility companies and the anticipated submittal of 14-15 more will jump start the next round of nuclear power in the US.  Coupled with the worldwide growth of the industry, the impact on the suppliers in value chain of the industry will be substantial.  In the US alone, this represents 25-30 new reactors to be started soon with a total value of almost $100B.  Worldwide, there are over 30 reactors under construction and over 100 more in the planning stage.  Most are GEN III reactors patterned after the Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) and Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) that successfully and safely produce 16% of the world's electricity.  Global warming concerns will p[probably accelerate the current trends.  Solar/thermal plants and wind farms will play a role in the future of clean energy, but only nuclear can provide 24/7 base load that will meet power demands. 

Uranium's Wild Ride - Where it Has Been and Where it is Going

October 11, 2007

Analysis of:The Economics of Nuclear Power | www.uic.com.au

The  nuclear power industry became accustomed to low cost Uranium.  During the past year, this has changed as extraordinary heights were reached.  Those high prices have recently dropped and will erode more by 2010-2013 as new mines come on line.  Entry barriers are low, exploration and development is preceding rapidly and political opposition is disappearing.  Uranium is ubiquitous on the earth's crust and reserves can be expected to increase with current prices and increased exploration.  It may be too early to predict where Uranium prices will go but it is likely that long term prices will be determined by the structural characteristics of the industry.  Even with ownership concentration, production and operating costs will become the major determinant for pricing.  Thus, very efficient and large mines, with good ore bodies located near the surface, will eventually set market prices.  In the short term, a few market entrants will be highly profitable, but that will not last long.

The Total Energy Solution

February 14, 2007

Analysis of:Alternative Approaches | online.wsj.com

There are several initiatives that the US must take, in parallel, to achieve limited "Security Independence".  First, we must recognize that what is really needed is energy security, not independence which is realistically impossible.  What is possible is energy resilience and reduced vulnerability.

This can be achieved with higher ethanol production using cellulosis, more nuclear power, better use of hybrids and battery powered cars, increased use of domestic oil and gas assets, improved use of renewables, greater conservation and eventually, a shift to a Hydrogen economy.  The major factors which must be considered are discussed below.

Nuclear Power Comeback

October 10, 2006

Analysis of:IUC buys Denison to form $1-billion player | www.theglobeandmail.com

Major increases in nuclear power generation are underway for the following three reasons:

    -Nuclear power produces no airborne pollution;

    -It can be less expensive than other energy generation systems;

    -It has proven to be safe and reliable.

The Comeback of Nuclear Power

May 23, 2006

Analysis of:Nuclear power splits EU despite common-policy bid | news.yahoo.com

After Chernobyl, Three Mile Island and the movie entitled “The China Syndrome”, most people thought nuclear power was a dead issue. Of course, they were apparently unaware that 103 operating nuclear power plants in the United States were quietly and safely generating 20% of our electrical power demand. Of perhaps more importance, France’s Electricite de France (EDF) was generating over 80% of its electricity from 59 nuclear reactors and doing it so efficiently that significant amounts of electricity were being exported from France to Italy and the UK over high energy transmission lines. Similarly, significant nuclear power generation capabilities have been demonstrated at more than a dozen nations around the world