Mr. Toby Kolstad

GLG News^SM Analyses by Toby Kolstad

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Railcar builders to enjoy another great year

January 30, 2012

Analysis of:North American Fourth Quarter Rail Freight Car Orders | www.bloomberg.com

Railcar orders stayed relatively close to deliveries during the fourth quarter of 2011, and the backlog stayed above 64,000 cars. Although many of the backlogged orders are for delivery beyond 2012, most will be built this year, propelling builder deliveries well beyond the 47,000 rail cars manufactured in 2011.

Environmentalists and the EPA are likely to stop U.S. West Coast coal exports through 2012

January 19, 2012

Analysis of:Two coal companies want to export coal through the Port of St. Helens | www.oregonlive.com

Powder River Basin coal is currently being transported by railroad to Vancouver BC for export to China, but an export terminal on the Columbia River between Washington and Oregon could capture this traffic and allow for even more tonnage to be exported.  The Pacific Northwest is “greenie” territory, however, and environmentalists have been very successful to date in blocking the permitting of any new coal terminals in “their” region.

Railroad intermodal traffic predicted to continue growing

August 30, 2011

Analysis of:Big shippers see continued demand slowdown | www.dcvelocity.com

A recent survey of shippers indicated that a modal shift from trucking to railroad may be boosting railroad traffic more than lackluster economic and import growth would suggest. The recent surge in orders for new 53’ well cars from The Greenbrier Companies may continue if truck traffic continues to migrate to railroad.

Railroad profitability probably won't limit freight rate increases

August 24, 2011

Analysis of:Union Pacific crosses profitability threshold | www.ft.com

For the first time, Union Pacific Railroad earned more on its invested capital in 2010 than its total cost of capital, and the other major U.S. railroads most likely did the same. However, if the experience of the Norfolk Southern Railroad is any guide, freight rate increases are not likely to slow. That railroad has earned more than its cost of capital in almost every year since 2003 and yet its freight rate increases resembled other railroads.

Industrial Sand: New boom for rail traffic and railcar builders

August 19, 2011

Analysis of:Natural Gas Extraction Creates A Boom For Sand | www.npr.org

Industrial sand is used in the hydro-fracking method of oil and gas extraction from shale rock formations and demand is exploding as energy companies develop new wells. Demand for the small cube covered hoppers used to transport the material is also booming, taking up the slack from the decline in ethanol car production. Shipments of Industrial Sand could soon match those of Ethanol which are beginning to peak after climbing in a short time from almost nothing to about 2% of all railroad carloads.

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