Asian stocks struggle to gain ground
Published at: www.ft.com
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Marshall MaysFounder & DirectorEmerging Alpha Advisors, Ltd.
Perpetual mispricing machine - Durable misconceptions about Asia’s markets
July 1, 2009
1. China's growth, a two-decade-old story, has been rewarding on average to those allowed to tap it, but access price has been high and the disappointments painful. We face huge risk of another one now, at a time other exporters and financial investors can least afford it. When might a publicly disclosed slow-down arise? Will bank performance be the symptom or the cause? 2. Japan is clearly more linked to China's growth than other rich countries, so China's problems are Japan's. Can the accumulation of improvements in Japan make up for the weight of a continued slow-down in PRC demand? 3. If the current risk is no worse than that elsewhere, what about the long term prospects? Are they superior to those elsewhere? Are current earnings multiples justified? If not now, when?
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