The Multichannel Cord Cutting Mystery
February 8, 2011
Hulu Reworks Its Script as Digital Change Hits TV - Hulu Online Cable Move? | online.wsj.com
1. To what extent does the "cord-cutting" phenomenon present a credible threat to the pay TV industry; or has the trend been oversimplified, overhyped and overstated.2. The digital terrestrial transition of 2009 drew many former over-the-air only viewers into the pay TV fold as the multichannel players, such as Comcast, Time Warner Cable and DISH, offered great incentives.
Newsprint's Cash Costs - The Connection With Housing Starts
January 31, 2011
Newsprint mills have traditionally relied on sawmill residuals (chips) from nearby saw mills producing dimension lumber for industrial and residential construction. In 2006/07 housing boomed and saw mills were all operating at 100% capacity with 2 x 4s selling for $375 thousand board feet. Distributors' warehouses filled up as housing starts plummeted. Saw mills began to shut down as prices tumbled to $150/mbf. Now paper mills now must do their own logging (manpower) and chippping (energy).
Rock-Tenn Buying Smurfit-Stone: what a huge chunk to digest!
January 25, 2011
Smurfit-Stone had 14 pulp and paper mills (2 in Canada) at this time last year and 124 box plants. They had, since 2006 closed 26 others. The US market has far too many box plants with some running only at 33% capacity, others at only 50-60%. A couple of the pulp mills are small but for the most part the 14 mills are good sized and versatile. The carton business will grow as the US economy improves but we still have too many box plants. IP had more than 60 and then acquired Weyco's 83.
Nine Dragons, Lee&Man Expansions: A Valuable Leading Indicator?
January 17, 2011
China expects to start up 5.3 million mt/year in 2011, 880,000 mt in the 1Q out of a total 6.6 million buildup for all of Asia....this according to a RISI economist. Nine Dragons will start up 2 new board machines - 700,000mt/year. This expansion will continue to put upward pressure on OCC purchases and prices ( up $15/mt from Nov/Dec) . 64% of all US exports went to China. Obviously future demand (export plus domestic) justifies this. Beijing wants to see domestic demand above 30%.
Rayonier Drops Fluff Pulp In Favor of Specialty Dissolving Pulps
January 17, 2011
This is as strategic move that will substantially effect their P&L. Replacing $950-1040/admt Fluff with $1500-2200/admt high purity (high Alpha) specialty dissolving pulp is painfull for Rayonier's Fluff Pulp customers but a boon to their hard-pressed dissolving pulp customers who have been on strict allocation for two years.Now, will Buckeye follow suit with this same strategy? Time will tell.Most of the other DP mills are producing lower Alpha commodity pulps for rayon.
Thermal Imaging: Koehler's "on/off again" US mill is now back burner
January 6, 2011
Koehler is the world's largest Thermal Imaging paper producer and ships 45-50,000mt annually to the US where they are #2 to Appleton. In 2007 it was rumored they would buy the shut Kimberly, WI mill. Next they considered buying base stock and coating it. Then they considered a greenfield pulp/paper mill in SC. Now that has been postponed. Prices increased 3 times in 2010 and will likely go up again this month. Prices are 9% higher than a year ago. Shipping costs must be absorbed.
Commodity Paper Prices Are Up-And-Down
December 28, 2010
Containerboard is in good balance and an early-2011 price increase is likely. 2010 saw 2 prices increases in January and April but then box makers got a respite.Newsprint prices are up to the break-even/small profit area but future price increases may be hard to come by since there is so much overcapacity.NewPage has had to rescind its announced $20-50/st Jan.price increase on both Uncoated and Coated Freesheet grades.CRB and URB producers had announced 4Q increases but must now wait until Jan.
No Surprise: OCC Prices May Go Higher
December 15, 2010
China, India and Mexico have been the 3 largest export markets. Recent prices are $279/mt delivered to south China ports. Now 5.3 million tons of new containerboard capacity in China will be starting up in 2011. 80-90% will be recycled fiber with 20% expected to come from the US. This equates to a 200,000 increase in demand from US collectors. An additional 1.3 million mt of containerboard will be starting up in India, Viet Nam and Malaysia. US supplies are reduced due to recession.
Hardwood Prices Soften As Inventories Soar
December 10, 2010
Fibria dropped BEK list by $20/admt in Europe (to $850) and $50/admt in China ($820/admt) while delivered prices to US buyers remained unchanged. Inventories surged by 5 days-of-supply causing most buyers to increase pressure on suppliers for lower prices. By contrast softwood prices (i.e.NBSK) remained firm as global demand continues to show strength and inventories stable. Many observers believe this is a temporary situation with 2011 gaining strength with prices rising.
Market Pulp Prices To Remain Stable
December 2, 2010
Softwood will be in tight supply...probably through 2011. In March the former Alabama River Mill now owned by GP will begin producing Fluff Pulp on #2 dryer (1500 mt/day) which will further reduce SBSK supplies. IP is already shipping significant tonnage to IP/Sun Paper it's jv in China. Likewise demand for Hardwood is picking up so there should be no reason for those prices to decline. Acetate Dissolving Pulp demand continues to outstrip supply and $1500/admt is forecast for Jan. 1st.
E-Insurance: When will the insurance industry adopt modern communication tools?
February 14, 2012
ATMs could distribute prepaid Visa cards
January 23, 2012
PayPal can thrive as a standalone company
January 9, 2012
Europe's CO2 Emissions Trading System works, but it can be improved
December 16, 2011
European women wonder why their insurance premiums will increase
December 15, 2011