GLG News by Adhesive and Sealant Experts

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

European Petchem Cracker Margins at 'Top of Cycle Levels' on Supply-Side Issues

July 27, 2011

European petchem cracker margins are at top of cycle levels. But they have been driven by a series of positive impacts on the supply side, not by strong European demand. This makes the outlook more unstable than most investors may realise.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Sinopec's Petrochemical Business 1998 - 2010

July 13, 2011

Chinese company Sinopec will be the world’s largest ethylene producer by 2014. Our new report (available via GLG Research), based on in-depth analysis of its historical performance, demonstrates that its key role is instead to maximise domestic employment by being a reliable supplier of raw materials to manufacturers down the value chain. It is essential reading for anyone wishing to understand how ‘the China factor’ will impact Asian and global petrochemical markets over the next few years.

Kevin BoyleConsultantKEVIN L BOYLE

New Wave of Ethylene Crackers -- This Won’t Happen

July 7, 2011

Analysis of:POLL FINDINGS: Industry forecasts wave of new North America crackers by 2020 | www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com

Hydrocarbon Processing conducted a poll with results finding that 77% of respondents think four or more new ethylene crackers will be built by 2020. An amazing 31% think eight or more will be built. This won’t happen!

Ian DavenportPresidentDavenport Associates

Global Diaper Producers Continue Geographic Growth

July 1, 2011

Analysis of:SCA acquires 50 percent of Turkish hygiene products company | www.cisionwire.com

SCA is acquiring 50 percent of the Turkish hygiene products company Komili from Yildız Holding, which is the largest food group in Turkey. Komili is the 4th largest baby diaper producer in Turkey. This continues a trend of major diaper companies expanding globally by JV & Acquisition as well as organically.

Kevin BoyleConsultantKEVIN L BOYLE

Demand Destruction of Butadiene

June 29, 2011

Analysis of:Asia tyre makers may opt to switch to NR on spiking BR prices | www.icis.com

The reduction in SBR in tire formulations probably represents real demand destruction for butadiene as the minimization has been in place for years. The reduction in butyl rubber could represent further real demand destruction for butadiene. However, this is still flexible, depending on prices. It is not easy to add supply of natural rubber as you have to wait for a tree to grow. Therefore, the give/take of butyl rubber versus natural rubber may go on for some time.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Western BabyBoomers are Changing Chemical Demand Patterns, Again

June 29, 2011

Economists and demographers have failed to talk to each other over the past 20 years. If they had, we would all understand why global growth has recently been slowing. My new eBook, Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – How Western BabyBoomers are Changing Chemical Demand Patterns, Again will help investors make up for lost time.

Kevin BoyleConsultantKEVIN L BOYLE

Butadiene Continues to be Too Tight

June 15, 2011

Analysis of:US Goodyear declares force majeure on SBR | www.icis.com

The butadiene problem is endemic in the U.S. Crude C4 is produced as a coproduct of ethylene when heavier feedstocks are cracked. The easy availability of relatively cheap ethane, enhanced by the new shale gas has driven feedstock slates to ethane, producing very little crude C4 for processing into butadiene.

Kevin BoyleConsultantKEVIN L BOYLE

Ethane from Marcellus—At What Price

June 7, 2011

Analysis of:Shell Plans to Build Ethylene Cracker in Marcellus Region | www.industryweek.com

The pricing of ethane from the Marcellus Shale Play will be a complex mix of interests. Gas producers will welcome the offtake of ethane, but need frac spreads that meet commercial thresholds as a whole. However, to justify the $1-1.5 billion investment in an ethylene cracker, secure supply of ethane and advantaged prices will be necessary. Otherwise, ethylene producers would undertake less capital intensive expansions at U.S. Gulf Coast facilities.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Oil price volatility will challenge chemical company profits

May 8, 2011

Many analysts have taken Q1 chemical company results as an excuse to upgrade their full-year forecasts. This flies in the face of history, which shows that whilst companies do well initially as oil prices rise, they then pay a severe penalty in terms of future profits and volume. With oil prices now under pressure, the rest of 2011 could therefore prove a lot more difficult than expected.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Chemical companies need to warn on the outlook

April 15, 2011

Rising oil prices can lull investors into a dangerous sense of complacency.They appear to lead to a sustained period of robust chemical demand, as buyers rush to protect supplies. This creates a '13 month' year in terms of volumes and profits. But when oil prices stabilise, or fall, this trend reverses, and we have an '11 month year', as buyers destock again.

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