GLG News by Airline Industry Experts (EU)

David JarachManaging PartnerDiciottofebbraio Srl

Both AF-KL and Air One look as second-best partners for Alitalia, LH would have been the best

December 12, 2007

Analysis of:Air France, Air One lead charge for Alitalia; Lufthansa opts out | www.atwonline.com

At the end of the process, only AF-KL and tiny Air One have remained as the alternatives for the Italian Government to go ahead with Alitalia's sale. It is however quite doubtful that any of the two ones are really good partners for the troubled Italian carrier, given their historical strategic fit (AF-KL) and their limited business range (Air One). Lufthansa, that decided to stay out, would have been the real best-in-class choice to turnaround the Italian carrier, provided a full support from politicians and unions that eventually the German carrier was probably not able to get.

David JarachManaging PartnerDiciottofebbraio Srl

Increasing complexity for European LCC industry

August 30, 2007

Analysis of:Are European low-cost carriers entering maturity in their revenue and profit generation? | www.ft.com

- profit warnings from European LCCs leaders (Ryanair, Easyjet, Air Berlin) evidence increasing difficulties in shareholders' value generation in the cluster of the airline industry; - on the other hand, smaller players, like Vueling, are expanding their losses; - consolidation looks as reasonable to offset overcapacity, stop a downward pressure over yield and to rejuvinate economies of scale;

David JarachManaging PartnerDiciottofebbraio Srl

Alitalia case as a minor actor in a major European airline industry shakeout

July 23, 2007

Analysis of:Italian Government has to find another solution for Alitalia | www.ft.com

After the collapse of the Alitalia's sale process, with the last one of original 10 bidders having abandoned the game, it's now time for tough choices for the Italian Government. The past months showed that there is really little financial interest on the international market for Alitalia, most definitely as the Italian airline faces strong structural inefficinces due to union powers, mismanagement and an obsolete fleet asset. Although the Italian carrier has still some liquidity into pockets, cash will be burst as on December next. The most likely solution will be a direct negotiation by the Italian Government, which still owns 49.9% of Alitalia, with some players like Air France, Lufthansa, TPG or Air One. As Air France is currently implementing a bid for Spain's Iberia, Lufthansa may surprisingly bid the first one to be contacted, most definitely as the German carrier has proved effective in managing a multi-hubbing strategy with its Frankfurt, Munich and Zurich hubs.

David JarachManaging PartnerDiciottofebbraio Srl

US Military budget improves Boeing profitability

May 7, 2007

Analysis of:Boeing earnings 12% above expectations | www.bloggingstocks.com

- Boeing is performing better than direct competitor Airbus in the civilian market, where B777s and B787s are winning competition over the A350 and where B747ng is also promising better than A380;
- In the military market, Boeing is benefiting from improvement of US military budget;
- MRO business and aircraft conversions (from passenger to cargo, i.e.) is also growing as well.

David JarachManaging PartnerDiciottofebbraio Srl

airports as major sources for investors' focus

October 30, 2006

Analysis of:airport marketing | www.aerlines.nl

. airports are traditional local monopolies;
. improved competition from either new comers or reconverted sites have taken innovators to reengineer their value proposition;
. state-of-the-art managerial solutions have a dramatic impact over EBITDA values;
. this transtion may be easily supported with advisory tools.

David JarachManaging PartnerDiciottofebbraio Srl

positive outlook for the airline industry

October 27, 2006

Analysis of:Bullish Outlook For Airline Industry | www.forbes.com

. the industry should turn all positive in 2006 instead than 2007
. the industry seems to be quite immune from terroristic threats
. further consolidation might be on the road

Tim CoombsManaging DirectorAviation Economics

Alitalia - International partnership not a solution

September 21, 2006

Analysis of:Italian national airline needs int'l partner: Deputy PM | english.people.com.cn

The problems faced by Alitalia are high costs and operational inefficiency.
An international partner will in no way address these fundamental problems.
The chances of finding such a partner are remote, and likely to be a management distraction from the main task of delivering the necessary restructuring.

Tim CoombsManaging DirectorAviation Economics

A win-win model for low cost carriers

September 21, 2006

Analysis of:Sri Lanka's first ever budget airline ties up with Asia's best | www.asiantribune.com

Franchisee gets the benefit of brand, reputation and operational experience which gives comfort to passengers and also the regulatory authorities.
The airline providing the brand gains access to markets which would otherwise be inaccessible due to restrictive air service agreements and revenue from the licensing agreement.
A model to possibly be adopted in the future by leading low cost carriers.

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