GLG News by Aluminum Experts

Paul GlantzPresidentMetal Recycling Consultants

Science, not Politics, Will Lead the Way

January 26, 2010

Analysis of:Analysts says frac rules unlikely | www.upstreamonline.com

The analysts conclusion that ExxonMobil and other shale-gas producers will not be subject to extra costs to comply with environmental regulations and restrictions is either at least very premature, or at most wrong.

Brian ShellOwnerGO Auto Recycling

Steel Mills and Foundries will fare differently due to stamping supply reductions

June 3, 2009

Analysis of:Scrap Facing Hit from GM Stamping Plant Closings | amm.com

As we read about the Chrysler and GM bankruptcies one must wonder what affect these historical filings will have on their many suppliers.  For foundry suppliers, they face a double whammy.  The reduced flow of scrap out of auto manufacturing operations could be especially harmful to US ductile iron makers.

Brian ShellOwnerGO Auto Recycling

'Cash for Clunkers' Program Offers Few Real Benefits

May 26, 2009

Analysis of:Senate offers up alternative 'Cash for Clunkers' proposal | amm.com

As the US government seeks creative ways to spur new car buying, the side effects to those that will ultimately administer the program are an after thought.  Ultimately the consumer will pay for this program through taxes or by limiting repair options and forcing them into newer vehicles. 

Paul GlantzPresidentMetal Recycling Consultants

Indicators Show Base Metal Prices are Establishing a Floor

December 11, 2008

Analysis of:Rio Cuts 14,000 Jobs, Spending as Demand Falters | www.bloomberg.com

Rio announcing major job cuts and expense reduction has major bullish inclination to base metal pricing.

Paul GlantzPresidentMetal Recycling Consultants

Base Metal Prices May be at a Turning Point

July 30, 2008

Analysis of:Gold futures drop $36 in three days | www.marketwatch.com

Base metal prices have been somewhat bearish as of late as have other commodity prices such as oil and gas.  Speculators often react and overreact to daily news items forcing large swings in commodity pricing. However the greatest real effect on commodity prices will be whether Chinese buyers come back strong following the Olympics in August.

Paul GlantzPresidentMetal Recycling Consultants

They Have Arrived (Metal ETF’s that is)

April 29, 2008

Analysis of:The Best and Worst Natural Resource Funds | www.thestreet.com

While reviewing the performance of resource funds for the first quarter of 2008,  I realized that there is now an availability of buying or selling specific commodities for actual users as a 'hedge' against price volatility.

Paul GlantzPresidentMetal Recycling Consultants

Traditional Future Metal Price Analysis is for the Birds

February 28, 2008

Analysis of:Survey of Forecasts (of Metal Prices) | www.recycling-magazine.com

As published in Recycling Magazine Feb 2007, “Survey of Forecasts”, basemetals.com compiled price predictions of 22 analysts. These analysts are paid researchers that spend their time analyzing the metal markets.   In order to determine the price prediction, in this case in one year, the analyst compiles the list of facts he desires, and computes in a formula and possibly graph detail where the price will be in a predetermined time period.   All the facts are available to all the analysts, yet each come up with a different result. This may be because of the weighting factor each one uses for their determination. Or, an analyst may throw caution to the wind and make a prediction on his intuition.   But, I believe, we have entered a new era of pricing that is much less predictable because of the investment community.

Paul GlantzPresidentMetal Recycling Consultants

A Unique Perspective on the Base Metals Market

December 13, 2007

Analysis of:The Base Metals Market Briefing | www.gfms-metalsconsulting.com

Being an actual metal trader, selling scrap metal to mills and refiners, I believe I have a unique perspective on the base metals market. When selling scrap to a mill or refinery, the price is most often calculated using a mathematical formula.   Changes to the formula indicate changes in interest, i.e., demand.

Neil BuxtonManaging DirectorGFMS Metals Consulting

Where are we in the supercycle?

December 12, 2007

Analysis of:The Base Metals Market Briefing | www.gfms-metalsconsulting.com

Base metal prices have come under pressure on the back of weak demand, not only in in the US, but also increasingly in Europe and Japan.  This threatens to overshadow, in the short-term, the still strong demand growth from China.   Nickel and zinc prices have already fallen by 50% from their bull market peaks.  Is this a harbinger of things to come for the base metals sector?

Paul GlantzPresidentMetal Recycling Consultants

Bold Prediction of $4 Copper May Be Premature

August 23, 2007

Analysis of:Copper to Peak Near $4 Per Pound this Fall, As Chinese Demand Remains Steady | gold.seekingalpha.com

The fp trading desk has made a bold prediction on short term copper prices which expects a price increase of 20% in a matter of one or two months. Their use of recent historic economic data does not tell the whole story.

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