GLG News by Asset Backed Securities Experts

David PottsFormer Finance DirectorLLOYDS T S B ASSET FINANCE DIVISION LTD

First repayment for UK bank

June 9, 2009

Analysis of:Lloyds Banking Group boosts Brown with £2.3bn bailout repayment | business.timesonline.co.uk

Is this a sign that the worst of the UK banking crisis is over, it is hard to imagine 3 month ago that a major UK bank could have raised equity in this way. Given that the markets now believe that the capital bases of the UK banks are strong, the banks themselves can continue their increase in lending and the support that they give to the UK and other economies

Justin HupetPrincipal & Managing PartnerFour Peaks Capital LLC

Institutional Investors Participation in Recent Equities Market Rally: A Canadian Perspective

April 20, 2009

Analysis of:financial times ft.com | www.ft.com

The major Canadian equities market index, the S&P/TSX Composite Index, is up 5% YTD (up 25% since March 9th, 2009) ; with the overall value traded down 27%, and volume up roughly 18% compared with the same period last year on a year-over-year basis.  The number of transactions is up 26% YTD vs. the same period last year.  The TSX Venture exchange (which consists of micro and small capitalization companies) is up 24% YTD.  The consensus among institutional investors in Canada, as elsewhere around the globe, remains divided.  A few things likely need to occur before the majority of the naysayers move toward the other camp, such as; a visible and sustainable improvement in the global economy, a broad-based recovery in corporate earnings, a steady and meaningful increase in the prices of commodities, a slowdown or reversal in the recent rate of increase in the unemployment rate, more balanced conditions in the housing market, and a significant positive shift in consumer confidence.

Justin HupetPrincipal & Managing PartnerFour Peaks Capital LLC

Hedge Funds Need A Survival Strategy

March 26, 2009

Analysis of:Pensions seen fueling hedge fund industry growth | www.reuters.com

Hedge funds lost more than $700 billion in second half of 2008, and 2009 might be even worse given the current outlook for the financial and economic environment.  Hedge funds need a survival strategy and more metrics need to be shared on both sides of the conversation between the hedge fund and institutional client.  Those hedge funds that survive need to offer, among other things; repeatable performance, fair fees, top-notch client service, robust risk management, transparency, sound operational infrastructure, and a safety guarantee for custody of and institutions assets.

Justin HupetPrincipal & Managing PartnerFour Peaks Capital LLC

Recent Moves by the FED and Treasury: Do They Raise More Questions Than They Answer?

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:Confidence Returning to Equities | www.bloomberg.com

Critical questions remain unanswered, and these questions will in all likelihood not be cleared up until the plan begins operation, such as:  Will investors (through auction via FDIC) offer high enough bids to entice bankers to sell illiquid assets?  Will regulators force banks to participate regardless of where bids are at?  How quickly will the plan be implemented?  What loans are eligible for the auction?  Is this whole process too bureaucratic?

Justin HupetPrincipal & Managing PartnerFour Peaks Capital LLC

Suncor's Acquisition of Petro-Canada: Merger Creates Canada's Biggest Energy Company with Global Stature

March 23, 2009

Analysis of:Suncor, Petro-Canada agree to $19.2B merger | www.financialpost.com

Merger creates Canada’s biggest energy company with global stature. The new combined entity consists of the largest Oil Sands resource position. Both companies were in need of cutting costs given tough economic and industry conditions. Suncor itself was looking ripe for a takeover given the depressed share valuation (down roughly 35% over the last 12 months) and relatively low price of crude as of late, and is getting a “good deal” with the acquisition of Petro-Canada.

Justin HupetPrincipal & Managing PartnerFour Peaks Capital LLC

Sun Life's Indonesian Acquisition: CIMB Will Boost Presence In Priority Growth Region

March 19, 2009

Analysis of:Acquisition Sun Life, CIMB team up to form joint venture | www.thejakartapost.com

Yes, I think the CIMB acquisition will significantly help Sun Life in tapping into Indonesia’s insurance sector where the company has had a presence since 1995 through P.T. Sun Life Financial Indonesia (which has four telemarketing centers, eight bank partners, and 3,800 agents).  Indonesia remains a key priority geographic region for both large Canadian insurers (i.e., Sun Life and Manulife), as it is one of the fastest growing insurance markets in Asia.  This transaction will increase Sun Life’s presence and reach in Asia, where they intend on continuing to build and grow their franchise consistent with the company's long-term strategy. 

Justin HupetPrincipal & Managing PartnerFour Peaks Capital LLC

Canadian Banks: "Steady As She Goes - Weather-Beaten By The Economic Hurricane But Not Broken"

March 6, 2009

Analysis of:Canada banks' long history of steady dividends | www.financialpost.com

Canada's banking system is currently the soundest and most stable in the world.  For those with patience, the ability to foresee past the current environment and have a longer-term time horizon, shares of Canadian banks represent significant value and upside potential.

Joseph SmithPresident and CEODefault Mitigation Management

Will only owrk if they do something with the mortgages!

December 12, 2008

Analysis of:RBS Promises Borrowers Six-Month Respite Before Foreclosing on Mortgages | www.bloomberg.com

1. Only works if the loans are re-performed. 2. Can be a rat in the snake waiting to pass. 3. Can make the situation worse with failure to reperform 4. There are good and bad modifications

Nicholas KrsnichPresident & Portfolio ManagerJMN Financial LLC

2nd Chance

December 5, 2008

Analysis of:2nd Chance | www.jmnfinancial.com

Patterned after the depressions "New Deal", "2nd Chance" offers suggestions for bank recapitalization, handling of foreclosed homes, and restarting a struggling RMBS securities market.

Joseph SmithPresident and CEODefault Mitigation Management

Blame the models and Risk Based Pricing

September 30, 2008

Analysis of:Why Risk Models Failed to Spot the Credit Crisis by Adam Davidson | www.npr.org

Models only cover certain variables and the crisis involved much more than mortgage pricing and a few macroeconomic issues. Risked based pricing as used in the mortgage industry had an underlying flaw that caused the models to fail. Greed played the other part.

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