July 26, 2011
Megadeal Unites Drug Rivals | online.wsj.com
I give the Express Scripts / Medco Health Solutions deal a 60% chance of being approved by the Federal Trade Commission. I think it’s going to be a very tough fight for antitrust approval, but perhaps not for the reasons you think. The Agreement and Plan of Merger filed on Friday gives us a peek at the companies’ strategy for clearing the antitrust hurdles. But note that there is no termination fee if the companies don’t get antitrust clearance.
ESRX-MHS: Strategic and Market Analysis
July 25, 2011
The Express Scripts / Medco Health Solutions deal makes sense given the dynamics of the PBM industry. At the same time, a successful transaction would signal the end of the PBM industry's major growth opportunities and the transition to a more mature, highly consolidated market. The post-2015 world looks much less rosy for PBMs as the generic wave crests and the government crowds out private payers.
What's Behind Teva's Cephalon Deal
May 3, 2011
Teva to Buy Cephalon in $6.8b Transaction | www.bloomberg.com
This is a great, albeit expensive, strategic move by Teva. Management clearly recognizes the business model problem looming ahead for the generic drug business. The deal boosts Teva's brand business while maintaining a broadly diversified revenue base, positioning Teva as the "anti-Pfizer."The pharma industry of tomorrow will be about expensive drugs for small patient populations and cheap drugs for large populations. I wonder how many manufacturers will be ready.
2011 Part D Market Share: A Win for Humana and Walmart
April 29, 2011
Next Monday, Humana will report results for the first quarter of 2011. Based on my independent analysis of CMS data on Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plans (PDPs), the company will have a lot to brag about next week for its Retail segment: Humana had a net gain of about 570,000 PDP enrollees, more than any other organization in 2011. The Humana Walmart-Preferred Rx Plan, a preferred pharmacy network PDP launched in October 2010, is now the fifth-largest PDP in the U.S.
Express Scripts' Disruptive Specialty Strategy
April 14, 2011
Express Scripts is ahead of its PBM peers with an innovative and risky strategy for absorbing the buy-and-bill specialty drug spending from health care providers. If successful, the company will become the clear leader in a big new addressable market for PBM services. It also puts them on a collision course with AmerisourceBergen and McKesson for control over specialty channels to physician offices and clinics.
Rx Savings with Generic vs Branded Medications
March 28, 2011
Buying Brand-Name Drugs Over Generics Raises Medicaid Costs | www.bloomberg.com
With dollar shortfalls for Rx benefits, controlling drug costs is imperative. By utilizing a strict formulary of covered products, along with clear, real time messaging to the pharmacies, the generic fill rate (GFR) will rise. With a higher GFR, savings is attained.
Thoughts on the Catalyst-Walgreen Deal
March 10, 2011
Walgreen to Sell Unit for $525 Million | online.wsj.com
This is a big move for Catalyst, which vaults ahead of its competitors to become the fifth largest PBM behind the Big 3 PBMs—CVS Caremark , Express Scripts , and Medco Health Solutions —and United Health’s Prescription Solutions. Even so, Catalyst will have less than 5% of the total U.S. prescription volume vs. about 70% for the top four. Below I discuss the implications for: Walgreens The PBM industry CVS Caremark
Medtronic Dumps Novation: Why GPOs Should Worry
March 1, 2011
Medtronic Makes Bold Pact-Ending Move Amid Medical-Device Woes | online.wsj.com
Medtronic is questioning the core of a GPO’s business model—pooling member purchase volumes in exchange for lower prices from manufacturers and wholesalers. Medtronic is the first company to make such a bold public move against GPOs, but other manufacturers are rethinking their channel and contracting strategies. Direct contracting is an existential mega-threat facing the GPO industry. A weaker GPO industry would likely be a net positive for wholesalers, particularly Cardinal Health .
CVS Caremark: Still Searching for Synergy
February 8, 2011
In the latest results from CVS Caremark , the company was not even able to meet the lowered expectations for its PBM business that the company had set for itself just three months ago. Unless there is major progress, I still predict a 2012 Caremark spin off for the reasons outlined in When will CVS and Caremark split up? Comments by new CEO Larry Merlo suggest that this scenario is now under active consideration.
Walgreens Joins the Attack on PBM Mail Profits
January 18, 2011
Walgreen aims to fill more 90-day prescriptions | www.chicagobusiness.com
Low-price retail fulfillment of 90-day prescriptions is a threat to PBM profits. Walgreens joins Walmart and CVS Caremark in pursuing strategies that eliminate the traditional out-of-pocket cost difference for consumers between mail and retail pharmacies. Will plan sponsors pay attention and create a strategic vulnerability in the profit model of Express Scripts and Medco Health Solutions ?
February 7, 2012
What do the cloud, collaboration and virtualization have in common?
January 27, 2012
Clinical diagnostic acquisitions dominate 2011 top ten list
January 12, 2012
Gene therapy success threatens drugs for hemophilia and rare diseases
December 13, 2011
Medtech M&A activity accelerates in 2011
November 30, 2011