GLG News by CPG Consultants

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Organic and Natural Food Growth Stalls with Increased Commodity Costs

April 28, 2008

Analysis of:Naturally,Super Valu Customers Want More Options | www.forbes.com

Increasing commodity costs are having a negative impact to the growth of organic and natural foods.As commodities increase consumers are being more selective and price sensitive in their grocery shopping.This trend does not bode well for retailers like Whole Foods (WFMI) and the manufacturers that supply items to the leader in the organic and natural foods segment.

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Apple's Superior Brand Strategy Leads to Strong Results

April 24, 2008

Analysis of:Apple's 2Q Results Beat Wall Street Views | biz.yahoo.com

Apple once again delivered very strong results in the face of hesitant consumers under recessionary pressures.Total revenue growth for the latest quarter was +36% led by the Mac brand in personal computers at +51%.The MP3 segment led by the I Pod brand delivered growth of +1% while the I-Phone sold 1.7 mm units.   So how is Apple able to deliver consistent sales and profit growth in tough recessionary times with premium pricing while many of its competitors deliver poor results.In a phrase --it's their superior branding strategy.  

Brian StevensonPrincipalB. Stevenson Associates

U.S. Corn Acres needed, but Yield is most important!!

April 10, 2008

Analysis of:Corn Acres Adjustments | online.wsj.com

1.  Prospective corn planted acres by USDA are at 86 million2.  If realized, expected harvested acres are 79 million3.  Usage of Corn continues to rise with Ethanol production plus emerging middle class diet improvement in South/East Asia4. In the end, Yields will be the most important factor for this year's crop5.  Expect extremely volatile commodity markets this year.6.  The markets may be forced to find a price at which corn usage is actually rationed.

Brian StevensonPrincipalB. Stevenson Associates

Brazilian Sugar Ethanol May be a Big Player in U.S. Ethanol Supply Soon

April 10, 2008

Analysis of:Biofuel startup slow going as slow as molasses | www.chron.com

1.  Corn is used in 97 pct of Ethanol Production in the U.S.2   Corn Prices are at record high levels at around $6.00 per bushel3.  Expected Planted acres are below what may be needed to provide corn for all uses during the next year.4.  Sugar Ethanol is much cheaper to produce than is Corn Ethanol5.  Brazil has surplus Sugar and surplus Ethanol capacity6.  Ethanol Import tariffs may be in question with a new administration7.  Imported Ethanol may help solve some of the Food verses Fuel debate.

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Commodity Hedging-The Double Edged Sword

March 31, 2008

Analysis of:Against the Grain: Food Firms Hedge Costs | online.wsj.com

With ever rising commodity costs food companies that have hedged their key commodity purchases with forward buying have done quite well over the last year.Several key manufacturers have announced that they have hedged their raw materials by forward buying 60-70% of their 2008 needs.Lost in the discussion has been the potential for commodity prices to go down in the latter half of 2008.

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Kraft and Sara Lee turnaround ? Real or wishful thinking ?

March 14, 2008

Analysis of:Kraft, Sara Lee say turnaround efforts are succeeding | www.chicagotribune.com

Kraft and Sara Lee executives recently spoke at analyst conference concerning their recent improvements to drive sales growth and improve operating margins.Both suggested the progress is real and sustainable.   Kraft highlighted new products and headcount reduction as keys to their progress.New products are clearly needed and our key to drive future sales growth.The job cuts they mentioned are real and should help them provide a lower cost basis to expand marketing and potentially improve margins at the same time.  Sara Lee also touted new product innovation and organizational restructuring as means to improve their growth and enhance profitability.Pricing is also key at both companies as they face strong headwinds in the face of commodity inflation.  Do we believe both CEO's assertions and are better days ahead for both companies ?

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Who wins , who loses from rising food prices ? Part 2 --Retailers

January 11, 2008

Analysis of:Higher Food Prices Start to Pinch Consumers | online.wsj.com

As commodity prices increase, food manufacturers will be required to pass on higher raw material costs to their consumers.Over time these higher prices will put pressure on premium priced branded products and shift share to private label and value brands.Will this same pressure apply to retailers and hurt overall category sales ? Which retailers will benefit the most? Which retailers will be hurt on sales volume ?

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Who wins , who loses with higher food prices ?

January 10, 2008

Analysis of:Higher Food prices Start to Pinch Consumers | online.wsj.com

Commodity prices continue to rise driving prices higher in the grocery aisle.Wheat ,corn,dairy and oil prices continue to climb creating a very challenging environment for food manufacturers and retailers.The rising prices begs the question of who will this benefit and who will this hurt over 2008 ? There are several distinct categories of companies that rising food costs will impact: --Branded Food Manufacturers (Kraft,General Mills,Kellogg's etc) --Value Food Manufacturers (Private Label producers,value priced branded companies) --Restaurants and Foodservice manufacturers --Grocery Retailers

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Organic and Natural Foods Go Mainstream

December 5, 2007

Analysis of:Hot Cereal , Hey It's All Natural | www.nytimes.com

Large consumer packaged goods companies are finally waking up and embracing the volume opportunity in Organic and Natural Foods.For years ,most of the top selling products at Whole Foods and other Natural stores were made by small manufacturers.Large CPG companies were not quick to offer products because the volume was still small and there are greater difficulties in the manufacturing process to produce Natural and especially Organic products. Times are changing with many key retailers now starting to embrace Organic and Natural Foods.If their retail customers want these products its important that the large CPG companies offer them as part of their product portfolio.

Rick SheaPresidentShea Marketing Consulting Inc.

Who Will Buy Wonder Bread ?

November 8, 2007

Analysis of:Twinkies Baker Opens Door To Bids | www.reuters.com

The recent article on Interstate Bakeries bankruptcy hearings now officially puts the company in play.IBC struggling from high plant and route costs and the unprecedented rise in flour costs has been attempting to emerge from bankruptcy.IBC Management has stated that their proposal values the company at  a value of at least $580mm.Yucaipa and Bimbo (Mexican bread retailer and owner of the Oroweat brand) have formed a group to propose an alternative deal.The result has been to effectively put IBC up for sale to all competing companies.

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