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Nathaniel FinkinManaging Partner and PrincipalFinkin Capital Advisors

UK banking landscape presents potential for new competitors

September 21, 2009

Analysis of:State Bank of India open to acquisitions in UK | www.reuters.com

The large scale nationalization of the UK banking system leaves open the possibility for new players to enter the marketplace and compete.  While American banks are still struggling en masse with capital issues, many foreign banks are not facing those same issues, and are likely to consider the UK for expansion opportunities.

Nathaniel FinkinManaging Partner and PrincipalFinkin Capital Advisors

Higher defaults in a CRE book don't necessarily translate to more losses

September 16, 2009

Analysis of:Wells Fargo, Fifth Third Add to Predictions of Higher Defaults | www.bloomberg.com

One of the most compelling contrasts between the 2007-08 (and still ongoing) meltdown in the residential housing market, vs. the forecast bubble-burst in commercial real estate for 2009-10, is the methodology banks and lenders use to forecast losses.  This contrast will definitely lend itself to more transparency and clarity with this current lending crisis vs. the previous residential and consumer meltdown. 

Nathaniel FinkinManaging Partner and PrincipalFinkin Capital Advisors

Capital One will be pressured along several fronts in 2009

June 11, 2009

Analysis of:Capital One Looks to Adapt to Credit Card Laws | www.washingtonpost.com

1) The CARD act of 2009 will impair fee collection, and absent a new drive to assess annual fees to their better clients it will be challenging if not impossible to recoup those fees. 2) Capital One will be dealing with rising unemployment, which has and will continue to correlate directly to higher delinquency and higher charge offs 3) The response to these events from a risk management perspective will inhibit asset growth and thus compound the earnings issue

Nathaniel FinkinManaging Partner and PrincipalFinkin Capital Advisors

Pensions are a dying breed

April 22, 2009

Analysis of:Employers to close more pension schemes as funding shortfall hits record | www.telegraph.co.uk

1) The nature of the employment landscape has so fundamentally changed over the last 30 years that the retirement vehicles put into place to help employees are nearly obsolete. 2) Pensions, in addition to their nearing obsolecence, are becoming significant liabilities for firms, who are struggling with record violatility in the value of their pension funds 3) Firms are finding and utilizing alternative solutions to provide employees with enhanced retirement benefits

Nathaniel FinkinManaging Partner and PrincipalFinkin Capital Advisors

Look out for regionals in 2009

March 16, 2009

Analysis of:Surge in Bank Failures Expected in '09 | online.wsj.com

1) Regional banks do not have a diverse income stream, and are heavily reliant upon net interest margin and "balance sheet banking" to generate income 2) While bank failures will likely be concentrated in certain marketplaces, the likelyhood of failure or success has more to do with reliance upon loan performance and less to do with size or location 3) Larger banks have mostly divested themselves of toxic assets, and the financial services sector as a whole has largely digested the mortgage meltdown.

Nathaniel FinkinManaging Partner and PrincipalFinkin Capital Advisors

Financials trimming payrolls should be no surprise

October 3, 2008

Analysis of:HSBC Announces 1200 Tops Job Cut | abclive.in

I don't believe that HSBC's decision to eliminate about .3% of its workforce should surprise anyone, nor does it indicate some sort of underlying micro-level weakness at the firm.  Financial firms across the globe have to carefully analyze their most expensive assets - people, in light of the current situation and the short & intermediate term forecasts

Nathaniel FinkinManaging Partner and PrincipalFinkin Capital Advisors

Outright manipulation of the CDS marketplace in action

September 18, 2008

Analysis of:Leveraged Loan Risk Rises on Lehman Auction, LevX Index Shows | www.bloomberg.com

The marketplace for credit default swaps is being affected in part by rumors and irrational conduct, in also in part by a very coordinated effort to capitalized upon the effect of short positions on the perception of a firm's repayment ability.

Nathaniel FinkinManaging Partner and PrincipalFinkin Capital Advisors

The worst is likely still to come for consumer credit delinquency and charge offs

July 14, 2008

Analysis of:Credit Card Delinquency and Write-off Rates Still Below Historic Highs | www.nasdaq.com

While it is true that credit card delinquencies and charge offs are not at their historic peaks, there is considerable evidence that supports the argument that we have not yet seen the bottom of the consumer credit crisis, and that delinquencies and charge offs will likely increase in the next 12 months. While charge offs and delinquencies are not at all-time highs, consumer sentiment and consumer confidence are at or approaching all-time lows.  The impact of the all-time high prices of gasoline and energy have yet to fully impact consumer spending; that however will become much more evident in the months to come.  It is safe to presume that the continued drain of funds otherwise used for discretionary spending or simple maintenance living will leave many borrowers "upside down" and unable to meet their monthly obligations.

Jon BisknerAVP of Information TechnologyNICOLET NATIONAL BANK

Not So Fast on the Job's Revenge....

June 28, 2007

Analysis of:iPhone: Jobs's Revenge | www.businessweek.com

I would say the author has made a huge leap of faith believing others will not respond to the most recent release of the iPhone.  I definitely subscribe to the argument set forth with regards to the Ipod, but this was in relatively new space not an existing market. The market for smart phones has been around since the early 2000's and many organizations have a stake in the market.  Smart phones successes can be measured in its ability integrate to business networks. 

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