GLG News by Chemical Industry Experts in GLG Member Programs (EU)

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Boom, Gloom and the New Normal

August 13, 2011

Analysis of:This Time, Maybe the U.S. Is Japan | online.wsj.com

The USA and other Western nations are following the path of Japan's economy post-1990 and the ending of its housing/stock market boom. Our detailed new analysis, Boom, Gloom and the New Normal - how the Western BabyBoomers are Changing Global Demand Patterns, Again shows why. It argues, contrary to conventional economic opinion, that demand is falling in the West due to the ageing of the BabyBoomers. 29% of the Western population is now 55+, and older people spend less, and save more.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Q2 Chemicals Results raise Concerns about the Outlook

August 5, 2011

History shows that a sustained rise of oil prices to current levels has always led to a recession.Chemical company results for Q2 do nothing to suggest that 'this time is different'.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

European Petchem Cracker Margins at 'Top of Cycle Levels' on Supply-Side Issues

July 27, 2011

European petchem cracker margins are at top of cycle levels. But they have been driven by a series of positive impacts on the supply side, not by strong European demand. This makes the outlook more unstable than most investors may realise.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Sinopec's Petrochemical Business 1998 - 2010

July 13, 2011

Chinese company Sinopec will be the world’s largest ethylene producer by 2014. Our new report (available via GLG Research), based on in-depth analysis of its historical performance, demonstrates that its key role is instead to maximise domestic employment by being a reliable supplier of raw materials to manufacturers down the value chain. It is essential reading for anyone wishing to understand how ‘the China factor’ will impact Asian and global petrochemical markets over the next few years.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Western BabyBoomers are Changing Chemical Demand Patterns, Again

June 29, 2011

Economists and demographers have failed to talk to each other over the past 20 years. If they had, we would all understand why global growth has recently been slowing. My new eBook, Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – How Western BabyBoomers are Changing Chemical Demand Patterns, Again will help investors make up for lost time.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Oil price volatility will challenge chemical company profits

May 8, 2011

Many analysts have taken Q1 chemical company results as an excuse to upgrade their full-year forecasts. This flies in the face of history, which shows that whilst companies do well initially as oil prices rise, they then pay a severe penalty in terms of future profits and volume. With oil prices now under pressure, the rest of 2011 could therefore prove a lot more difficult than expected.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Chemical companies need to warn on the outlook

April 15, 2011

Rising oil prices can lull investors into a dangerous sense of complacency.They appear to lead to a sustained period of robust chemical demand, as buyers rush to protect supplies. This creates a '13 month' year in terms of volumes and profits. But when oil prices stabilise, or fall, this trend reverses, and we have an '11 month year', as buyers destock again.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

The Potential Impact of the Japan Disaster on Chemicals - An Update

March 28, 2011

2 weeks ago, i proposed 3 Scenarios to help investors evaluate the potential impact of the Japan disaster on the chemical industry. Sadly, it appears that the first, Short-term Recovery, now appears unlikely. This means we need to prepare for either a Medium-term Rebuilding Scenario or a Long-term Damage Scenario.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

The Potential Impact of the Japan Disaster on Chemicals

March 16, 2011

Never in our working lives have we faced the combination of an earthquake, a tsunami and a potential nuclear meltdown - all taking place in the world's 3rd largest economy.Today, therefore, it seems sensible to simply try and record, as objectively as possible, some key facts as we know them. I will also suggest some possible Scenarios that investors might use to help navigate through these difficult times.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Chemical companies report strong Q4 results

March 2, 2011

Chemical companies had an unexpectedly good 2010. Stimulus measures in China drove an improvement in demand, whilst feedstock supply constraints supported pricing and margins. But today's high oil prices will hit discretionary spending in the West, just as China tightens its policies to combat inflation. 2011 therefore looks much more uncertain.

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