GLG News by Chief Financial Officers in the Real Estate Construction Industry

David GreenPrincipalTrinity Development Group

The Future of the Housing Market Post Government Support

April 26, 2010

This article questions whether the economy is running on government life support and makes the case that in the months to come we will have a clearer answer to that question when we see how the housing market responds to the pullback of government and Fed programs. My view is that the market has stabilized enough for these programs to be phased out and I will use points of the article to discuss what the next 1 to 2 years hold for institutional investors, banks, and homebuyers.

David GreenPrincipalTrinity Development Group

Investors Are Finally Dealing With The Real Seller of Troubled Assets

September 19, 2009

Analysis of:FDIC Packages Loans From Failed Banks | www.washingtonpost.com

The FDIC has rediscovered a program they used in the early 90s that was successful in the resolution of problem assets. My analysis takes a closer look at why the program is necessary, the details of the program, and the implications of setting the program in motion.

David GreenPrincipalTrinity Development Group

In Tampa: Lot Owners Woo Builders With Offer of Free Lots

April 1, 2009

Analysis of:Building in a bear market | money.cnn.com

This article is spot on.  From an insider's perspective I could not agree more with the author.  The Tampa residential market is decimated and it takes wild creativity to spur building activity.

David GreenPrincipalTrinity Development Group

Someone Play A Dirge For Corus

February 5, 2009

Analysis of:Condo King Corus Weights Its Options | online.wsj.com

This article clearly demonstrates the dire straits Corus Bank is facing as it deals with a soaring number of problem loans and an REO department full of repossessed condos.  The facts presented in this article are more than enough to make most people doubt Corus' ability to continue as a going concern.  Three factors are pressuring the bank heavily: a loan portfolio comprised almost exclusively of condo construction loans of which more than 1/3 are now non-performing, Treasury’s rejection of the banks application for TARP funding, and the distinct possibility the bank will face heightened capital requirements.

David GreenPrincipalTrinity Development Group

More Pain Ahead for Florida and New York - Most Others are Out of the Woods

February 3, 2009

Analysis of:Home prices fall at record pace | money.cnn.com

It is frightening to continually be bombarded with news of falling home prices and falling values for just about every other asset class known to man.  Many articles focus only on the price declines of homes without any consideration for the reasons why values are declining so much or when values will stabilize.  An analysis of trends and history can provide some insight into this situation.  Most people can handle bad news it is the uncertainty that is hard to deal with.  A look at home price trends shows that the bleeding should stop in 2009.

David GreenPrincipalTrinity Development Group

Land Is Valued Using Cash Buyers Discount Rates

November 19, 2008

Analysis of:How To Evaluate Land | www.builderonline.com

Lenders must face reality that today's value for land loans and A&D (acuisition and development) loans will yield pennies on the loan dollar.  There is no pretty way out for lender's exposed to this type of debt.

David KellerFormer Chief Executive OfficerUNITED SUBCONTRACTORS, INC.

Continued Housing Difficulties

May 14, 2008

Analysis of:The Housing Crisis is Over | online.wsj.com

The housing bust is not over and trends continue to be negative.  The only positive activity is that homebuilding stocks have gone up, without a good reason.  We still have a ways to go to work through all this.

David KellerFormer Chief Executive OfficerUNITED SUBCONTRACTORS, INC.

Direct Expensing of Interest by Homebuilders

May 6, 2008

Analysis of:Hidden Mortgage Risks Abound in U.S. Home Market | www.bloomberg.com

Not capitalizing interest in inventory causes acceleration of losses and deterioration of book value.

David KellerFormer Chief Executive OfficerUNITED SUBCONTRACTORS, INC.

ARE HOMEBUILDING STOCK PRICE INCREASES PREMATURE?

April 24, 2008

Analysis of:Construction Companies Are Clamoring for Managers | online.wsj.com

Recently, stock prices of most public homebuilders have increased 20-30 percent.  This despite no visible signs of improvement in the overall housing industry.  It seems early in the cycle for these stock price upward movements, as it appears the housing market has not yet found bottom.  Equity buyers at the present stock prices must be patient and have a mid- to long-term perspective on their investments. There may be several reasons for the recent price appreciation including: 1. Short sellers covering positions as hedge funds encounter increasing risks in other parts of their portfolios or simply decide to concentrate their efforts in another sector. 2. A perception the government enacted or proposed initiatives will cause significant improvement in homebuilding activities, including sales and financing of homes. 3. A belief the housing downturn is at or nearing bottom and this is the appropriate time to purchase homebuilder stocks.

David KellerFormer Chief Executive OfficerUNITED SUBCONTRACTORS, INC.

IMPAIRMENT REVERSALS – IMPACT ON COST OF GOODS SOLD

April 24, 2008

Analysis of:New-Homes Supply Builds; Durable Goods Orders Slide | online.wsj.com

Homebuilders have recorded large inventory impairments over the last couple of years.  Most of these impairments have been for land and lots.  As these previously impaired lots are built on and a completed home is delivered, the land component as a percentage of Cost of Goods Sold may decline significantly.

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