GLG News by Coal Mine Experts (Appalachia Region)

Thomas ShewskiOwnerHigh Energy Services

Bullish Signs for U.S. Thermal Coal—Exports, Imports, and Production

December 20, 2007

Analysis of:Surging Asian Coal Consumption Lifts U.S. Prices | money.cnn.com

    There are many production-related issues that point to a bullish coal market in 2008 and 2009.      The commentary section below discusses these bullish signals.

Thomas ShewskiOwnerHigh Energy Services

The Potential Consequences and Economics of Coal Dust Mitigation in the Powder River Basin to Railroads, Utilities, and Coal Producers

December 19, 2007

Analysis of:Coal Dust Problems Could Raise CU Bills | www.news-leader.com

    The Wyoming Powder River Basin (PRB) Joint Line in May 2005 experienced two major derailments believed by the BNSF and the Union Pacific to be attributable to coal falling off the coal railcars on this rail line and fouling the ballast and preventing proper drainage.  Coal deliveries were severely impacted for months as the railroads cleaned the paralleled rail line.                    The BNSF has studied this issue and is widely believed to begin shortly to require that coal railcars significantly reduce coal losses from the PRB.                    The commentary section discusses the consequences and economics to the two western railroads, coal-receiving utilities, and the coal producers.

Thomas ShewskiOwnerHigh Energy Services

U.S. Central Appalachian Coal’s Potential Price at the Mine Based on Its Export Potential to Europe

December 17, 2007

Analysis of:Newcastle Coal Exports Dip, Waiting Time Eases | economictimes.indiatimes.com

    Thermal coal into Europe continues to be above $100/tonne (metric ton) for 2008 as measured by the API 2 Index into Northern Europe.  It is up ~67% from prices for this same period quoted at the beginning of 2007.       The commentary calculates the price potential at the mine for a Central Appalachian coal to participate in the European thermal coal market.

Thomas ShewskiOwnerHigh Energy Services

Coal Scrubber Retrofits Will Greatly Increase Demand for High-Calcium Limestone

November 16, 2007

Analysis of:Critical to Economy, Limestone Has Low Visibility | www.statejournal.com

    Coal plants utilize high-calcium limestone as a reagent in flue gas desulphurization (FGD or “scrubbers”) to remove the sulfur from the coal rather than it going up the stack as air emissions. The usage of this limestone will increase as scrubbers are included on new coal plants and existing coal plants to comply with the upcoming emissions regulations.

Thomas ShewskiOwnerHigh Energy Services

By the Numbers: Lost Coal and Railcar Sales as a Result of Cancelled and Delayed Coal Plants

November 14, 2007

Analysis of:Plans for Coal Power Plants Scrapped | ap.google.com

    Many previously announced coal plants have been formally cancelled or delayed this year. This is the result of either regulatory rejections or uncertainty, cost increases because of materials and labor, or environmental (CO2 emissions) issues.     U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and media reports discuss the cancelled and delayed coal plants in terms of lost capacity (MW nameplate). The analysis section places numbers in terms of lost tons of coal and coal railcars as a result of the cancelled coal-fired generation.

Thomas ShewskiOwnerHigh Energy Services

Cancellation of Coal Plants is Not Necessarily a Short Term Boom to Wind Power Projects

November 14, 2007

Analysis of:Rejection of Coal Plants Could Hurt Wind Farms | www.nebraska.tv

    There have been several published reports of coal plant cancellations due to lack of the perceived need by regulators, differences in cost recovery in rates to consumers, the belief surrounding CO2 emissions or other reasons, Cancellation of the coal plant projects does not necessarily mean a boom to environmentally-preferred power (i.e. wind power) to fill some of the cancelled coal plants’ intended generation.

Thomas ShewskiOwnerHigh Energy Services

STB Could Make Some Rail Movements More Competitive By Addressing ‘Paper Barriers’

November 1, 2007

Analysis of:Board Proposes Regulations Governing “Paper Barriers” in Rail Line Transactions | www.progressiverailroading.com

    As a quick background, a “paper barrier” is a provision contained in an agreement when a Class I Railroad sells a line segment to a Class III Railroad preventing or limiting the acquiring Class III Railroad from interchanging traffic with a connecting railroad other than the original Class I Railroad that sold the line segment. This practice has been a long-standing issue with shippers because it limits competition, efficiency, and causes higher rates.

Thomas ShewskiOwnerHigh Energy Services

Illinois Basin Coal’s Potential Export Into High-Priced European Market

October 15, 2007

Analysis of:Hot Coal | www.ft.com

    Coal prices delivered into Europe are currently above $100/tonne (metric ton) as measured by the API 2 Index. This is up approximately 50% from prices being quoted for this same period at the beginning of 2007.     The commentary that follows evaluates the potential for the Illinois Basin coal (Illinois, Indiana, and Northwestern Kentucky) to be economically sold into this European Market.

Thomas ShewskiOwnerHigh Energy Services

U.S. Central Appalachian Coal’s Potential Participation in Hot European Thermal Coal Market

October 12, 2007

Analysis of:Record Coal Prices Hammer Power Generators | africa.reuters.com

    Current delivered coal prices into Europe have crossed over the $100/tonne (metric ton) threshold as measured by the API 2 Index into Northern Europe. That is up ~50% from prices for this period quoted at the beginning of 2007.     The commentary discusses the potential for Central Appalachian Coal producers to participate in this red-hot European coal market.

Thomas ShewskiOwnerHigh Energy Services

Coal Market--Bullish

October 10, 2007

Analysis of:Out of the Gate: Massey Rises | www.forbes.com

    The upgrade by Stifel Nicolaus & Co. of Massey Energy is representative of the bullishness in the U.S. coal sector. The commentary section discusses the positives in the coal sector.

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