GLG News by Ethylene Crackers Experts

Kevin BoyleConsultantKEVIN L BOYLE

Ethane from Marcellus—At What Price

June 7, 2011

Analysis of:Shell Plans to Build Ethylene Cracker in Marcellus Region | www.industryweek.com

The pricing of ethane from the Marcellus Shale Play will be a complex mix of interests. Gas producers will welcome the offtake of ethane, but need frac spreads that meet commercial thresholds as a whole. However, to justify the $1-1.5 billion investment in an ethylene cracker, secure supply of ethane and advantaged prices will be necessary. Otherwise, ethylene producers would undertake less capital intensive expansions at U.S. Gulf Coast facilities.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Oil price volatility will challenge chemical company profits

May 8, 2011

Many analysts have taken Q1 chemical company results as an excuse to upgrade their full-year forecasts. This flies in the face of history, which shows that whilst companies do well initially as oil prices rise, they then pay a severe penalty in terms of future profits and volume. With oil prices now under pressure, the rest of 2011 could therefore prove a lot more difficult than expected.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Chemical companies need to warn on the outlook

April 15, 2011

Rising oil prices can lull investors into a dangerous sense of complacency.They appear to lead to a sustained period of robust chemical demand, as buyers rush to protect supplies. This creates a '13 month' year in terms of volumes and profits. But when oil prices stabilise, or fall, this trend reverses, and we have an '11 month year', as buyers destock again.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

The Potential Impact of the Japan Disaster on Chemicals - An Update

March 28, 2011

2 weeks ago, i proposed 3 Scenarios to help investors evaluate the potential impact of the Japan disaster on the chemical industry. Sadly, it appears that the first, Short-term Recovery, now appears unlikely. This means we need to prepare for either a Medium-term Rebuilding Scenario or a Long-term Damage Scenario.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

The Potential Impact of the Japan Disaster on Chemicals

March 16, 2011

Never in our working lives have we faced the combination of an earthquake, a tsunami and a potential nuclear meltdown - all taking place in the world's 3rd largest economy.Today, therefore, it seems sensible to simply try and record, as objectively as possible, some key facts as we know them. I will also suggest some possible Scenarios that investors might use to help navigate through these difficult times.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Chemical companies report strong Q4 results

March 2, 2011

Chemical companies had an unexpectedly good 2010. Stimulus measures in China drove an improvement in demand, whilst feedstock supply constraints supported pricing and margins. But today's high oil prices will hit discretionary spending in the West, just as China tightens its policies to combat inflation. 2011 therefore looks much more uncertain.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

PetroChina offer $1bn for INEOS European refining JV

January 31, 2011

INEOS have closed their proposed JV refining deal with PetroChina. They have got an excellent price, plus the potential to expand their activities further as the strategic partnership develops.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

INEOS plans refining/technology JVs with PetroChina

January 11, 2011

INEOS have announced a major deal with PetroChina. It involves Joint Ventures in refining and oil/oil product trading, with a separate agreement on refining/petrochemical technology exchange. From an INEOS viewpoint, this enables it to consolidate its geographic footprint outside W Europe/USA, and leverage its technology in China.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Chemical industry faces great uncertainty in 2011

January 4, 2011

2010 was a better year than many had expected in the chemical industry. But demand remained low in many key markets, and operating rates ended the year well below the normal levels of the past 20 years at just 86%. Current uncertainties over likely demand levels in China, Europe and even the USA, combined with the major demographic changes now underway, suggest that Scenario Planning is therefore likely to come back into favour with investors during 2011.

Paul HodgesChairmanInternational eChem

Chemical companies have mixed views on outlook

November 11, 2010

Chemical companies have mostly had an excellent year in terms of margins. It has been far better than they expected even 6 months ago. But whilst some expect this improvement to be maintained, others remain cautious. And in the important Asian region, Reliance report margin pressures in key business segments.

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