GLG News by Fertilizer Purchasers

Philip CorzineGeneral ManagerSouth American Soy LLC

Farm machinery makers have to "follow their customers" to stay competitive

August 14, 2007

Analysis of:Why Deere Is Weeding Out Dealers Even As Farms Boom | online.wsj.com

Toying with dealer-customer relationships is always a tricky matter, but as agricultural producers in the US get bigger, makers and sellers of farm machinery have to evolve, in order to be able to serve their customer's changing needs.  Farm numbers falling Numbers of farms in the US continues to fall, down 43% in IL since 1970. Dramatically increasing levels of technology The level of technology employed in current farm machinery is extremely high, with sub-meter yield and moisture mapping becoming nearly standard equipment on combine harvesters.

Philip CorzineGeneral ManagerSouth American Soy LLC

Higher nitrogen prices (and higher soybean prices) will slow, or stop, growth in corn acres in 2008

August 13, 2007

Analysis of:Impact of Rising Natural Gas Prices on U.S. Ammonia Supply | www.ers.usda.gov

NH3, or Anhydrous Ammonia, is the primary source, for nitrogen, a key input for farmers in the production of corn. Domestic production of NH3 is down by 44% over past 4 years due to lower margins.  Imports are up 115 % over the same period.  Prices paid by farmers have increased by 129% over that same 5 year period. There his unused domestic production capacity sufficient to supply the nitrogen requirements for an additional 10M acres of corn, but current prices for natural gas (the feedstock for NH3) make it uncompetitive to bring this production capacity into play....so new corn acres will have to get their nitrogen from imported NH3...making it likely that NH3 prices will continue to increase. Bottom line...higher prices for NH3 will help to level the ROI playing field for the corn-vs-soy calculations for the 2008 crop.

Philip CorzineGeneral ManagerSouth American Soy LLC

Potential is there, but pushing new use's is a difficult process with low rates of success

August 13, 2007

Analysis of:Cooking Up More Uses for the Leftovers for Biofuel Production | www.nytimes.com

The potential to increase revenues by finding, or creating new uses for by-products is real, and potentially significant.  However, past experiences indicate that trying to "push" new products onto the market is much harder than letting demand "pull" them in...and is made even more difficult by the unpredictability of the cost of the feedstock.       

Philip CorzineGeneral ManagerSouth American Soy LLC

Soy complex has potential--Brazilian plantings a key factor.

July 30, 2007

Analysis of:Grain Price Outlook: Soybeans-What will South American Do? | www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu

64.1M acres of soybeans planted in US in 2007, likely creating the second smallest harvest in 8 years. - - - - Average farm prices for soybeans are projected to increase by over $1.00/bu. in the next year. - - - - - Future price movements will be highly volatile, influenced heavily by size of the crop planted in South America - - - - - Biodiesel beginning to have an impact on soybean crush, but watch Chinese hog deaths. - - - - - Brazilian production won't expand as much as anticipated earlier due to the Real and higher costs. - - - - - Farmers are facing record-wide basis levels for soybeans.

Philip CorzineGeneral ManagerSouth American Soy LLC

Don't blame corn for higher food prices....yet.

July 13, 2007

Analysis of:Grain prices not at fault for food costs | www.kansas.com

The cost of corn, is not the significant driver in increases in food prices. Corn represents just $.15-$.26 per pound of meet costs A box of corn flakes contains about $.03 of corn Higher milk prices are not connected to higher corn prices.  

Philip CorzineGeneral ManagerSouth American Soy LLC

US Ethanol: Set a date, trust the farmer, pay for pumps, and don't forget who brought you to the dance.

July 9, 2007

Analysis of:Fuels from Wood and Waste not Food and Haste | www.cleantechblog.com

The United State's production subsidy and import tariff needs a sunset date. --- US farmers are not abusing land to produce ethanol feedstocks --- Fertilizer use is up, but that's a good thing --- Do subsidize the installation of E85 pumps in the US --- Cellulosic ethanol is the future, but US can't forget to dance with who brought them to the dance.

Philip CorzineGeneral ManagerSouth American Soy LLC

Soy loses ground in US to corn, so all eyes now on Brazil

July 3, 2007

Analysis of:Corn's-a-Poppin' | blogs.wsj.com

>The (toal acreage) pie can't get bigger in the US > Soybeans are driving the CBOT now > Brazilian farmers CAN expand planted area > Area planted to soy in Brazil was DOWN by over 6% in the 06/07 crop > Look for increases in soybean area in the southern states, in areas where sugarcane isn't an option > Increases in planted area in the northern expansion areas will be limited by the Real, and by lack of credit.

Philip CorzineGeneral ManagerSouth American Soy LLC

ADM makes a smart move into Brazilian sugar

June 28, 2007

Analysis of:Archer Daniels Midland to Enter Brazil Sugar-Cane Ethanol Market | energy.seekingalpha.com

This appears to be a good move for ADM, both from a protective, and a proactive, viewpoint. > This could be viewed as a hedge against changes in the import tariff > ADM has operational history in Brazilian agriculture > This move may not be viewed in a positive by US corn growers > Brazilian sugarmills likely face some rough times in the near term

Philip CorzineGeneral ManagerSouth American Soy LLC

Ethanol euphoria appropriate, if focused on cellulosic ethanol rather than grain

February 2, 2007

Analysis of:Ethanol euphoria is out of place | www.timesunion.com

This article makes a couple of good points, but gets off-track, in my opinion, when the author delves into the long-term effects of the ethanol boom on the agricultural economy. 

> Agreed, the Brazilian ethanol industry can't be used to model where the US industry can go.
> Agreed, grain based (corn) ethanol is not viable to achieve the goals laid out by the Bush Administration
> However, commercial cellulosic based ethanol is not that far away
> Also I think that the US ethanol industry will support cellulosic, if they can fully participate
> I also believe that harvesting of cellulosic production can occur without damaging farms and soils
> Yes, food price spikes will occur, but should be temporary, not a perminent increase.

Philip CorzineGeneral ManagerSouth American Soy LLC

Soybean prices have potential, but could move either way after March reports

January 5, 2007

Analysis of:Soybeans Poised to Make Investors Rich in 2007 - Commodities Expert Predicts | www.soyatech.com

 Soybean prices do have significant upside potential over the next 12 months, but it may be too early to be making bets on the if, when and how much.

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