GLG News by Generic Drug Economic Experts

John AnsellDirectorJohn Ansell Consultancy

It’s official: the rise of blockbusters is at an end

August 18, 2011

Analysis of:Top 200 medicine highlights | pharmalive.com

The much heralded decline in the number of blockbusters has now come to pass. There were 118 products in 2010: down from 126 in 2009. Patent expiries account for most of this decline. But of particular concern is the number of new blockbusters – only 4 in 2010. It took longer than many expected for a lack of new products to undermine blockbuster numbers. Likewise, I expect it to take six years at least to reverse the current downward trend, even with a quick upturn in new product productivity.

Adam FeinFounder & PresidentPEMBROKE CONSULTING INC

ESRX-MHS: Antitrust Issues

July 26, 2011

Analysis of:Megadeal Unites Drug Rivals | online.wsj.com

I give the Express Scripts / Medco Health Solutions deal a 60% chance of being approved by the Federal Trade Commission. I think it’s going to be a very tough fight for antitrust approval, but perhaps not for the reasons you think. The Agreement and Plan of Merger filed on Friday gives us a peek at the companies’ strategy for clearing the antitrust hurdles. But note that there is no termination fee if the companies don’t get antitrust clearance.

Adam FeinFounder & PresidentPEMBROKE CONSULTING INC

ESRX-MHS: Strategic and Market Analysis

July 25, 2011

The Express Scripts / Medco Health Solutions deal makes sense given the dynamics of the PBM industry. At the same time, a successful transaction would signal the end of the PBM industry's major growth opportunities and the transition to a more mature, highly consolidated market. The post-2015 world looks much less rosy for PBMs as the generic wave crests and the government crowds out private payers.

William FinkPresidentManaged Care Pharmacy Consultants, Inc

"Health Care Laws by Any Name Will Not Work"

June 15, 2011

You can name the health care laws "ObamaCare", "Palin Care", "Trump Care", "Huckabee Care", or any "Care" you want, but they will not work, because it is not the laws that are messed up it is the public that is messed up.

William FinkPresidentManaged Care Pharmacy Consultants, Inc

PBMs NOT ALWAYS THE BAD GUYS

May 11, 2011

There are many articles written by attorneys explaining how they can write contracts with the PBMs in order to save their clients a great deal of money.

John AnsellDirectorJohn Ansell Consultancy

Almirall deal with Nycomed says more about Daxas prospects than meets the eye

May 6, 2011

Analysis of:Nycomed and Almirall announce commercialization agreement for roflumilast in Spain | www.nycomed.com

Almirall and Nycomed have announced a one-off deal giving the former co-marketing rights to its new COPD product roflumilast . This strongly suggests that the product's sales progress since last autumn across Europe has been good - sufficient for Almirall to think it worth belatedly entering the fray in Spain. Daxas should soon have the credibility to attract partners - including Almirall - for developing fixed combinations, a potentially much bigger prize.

William FinkPresidentManaged Care Pharmacy Consultants, Inc

Does the Teva Cephalon Deal have an unknown problem?

May 3, 2011

Analysis of:Teva to acquire Cephalon in 6.8 Billion Transaction | www.glgroup.com

Teva is embarking on a new and exciting future for its "Branded Business" Teva wants to obtain the "Dollars" from PROVIGIL. Provigil is a very expensive product for Narcolepsy. The price on this product was increased over 40% (approx) a few months ago. I am a clinical pharmacist , and manage pharmacy programs for HMOs and Self Insured Employer Groups. The time is coming when payors will not be able to afford medications with out a large increase in Employees out of pocket expenses.

Adam FeinFounder & PresidentPEMBROKE CONSULTING INC

What's Behind Teva's Cephalon Deal

May 3, 2011

Analysis of:Teva to Buy Cephalon in $6.8b Transaction | www.bloomberg.com

This is a great, albeit expensive, strategic move by Teva. Management clearly recognizes the business model problem looming ahead for the generic drug business. The deal boosts Teva's brand business while maintaining a broadly diversified revenue base, positioning Teva as the "anti-Pfizer."The pharma industry of tomorrow will be about expensive drugs for small patient populations and cheap drugs for large populations. I wonder how many manufacturers will be ready.

Adam FeinFounder & PresidentPEMBROKE CONSULTING INC

2011 Part D Market Share: A Win for Humana and Walmart

April 29, 2011

Next Monday, Humana will report results for the first quarter of 2011. Based on my independent analysis of CMS data on Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plans (PDPs), the company will have a lot to brag about next week for its Retail segment: Humana had a net gain of about 570,000 PDP enrollees, more than any other organization in 2011. The Humana Walmart-Preferred Rx Plan, a preferred pharmacy network PDP launched in October 2010, is now the fifth-largest PDP in the U.S.

Adam FeinFounder & PresidentPEMBROKE CONSULTING INC

Express Scripts' Disruptive Specialty Strategy

April 14, 2011

Express Scripts is ahead of its PBM peers with an innovative and risky strategy for absorbing the buy-and-bill specialty drug spending from health care providers. If successful, the company will become the clear leader in a big new addressable market for PBM services. It also puts them on a collision course with AmerisourceBergen and McKesson for control over specialty channels to physician offices and clinics. 

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