GLG News by Generic Drug Economic Experts

Adam FeinFounder & PresidentPEMBROKE CONSULTING INC

Prescriptions and the Economy: Perhaps Not So Bad

November 4, 2008

Analysis of:In Sour Economy, Some Scale Back on Medications | www.nytimes.com

The New York Times ran a story on the impact of the economy on prescriptions. The article provided many compelling personal stories to illustrate data from IMS Health showing a decline in the total number of prescriptions dispensed in the United States. However, I have some concerns about the ability of IMS Health to measure a changing retail marketplace with incomplete data, so perhaps the news is not quite as bad as reported. I’m sure the folks at IMS Health try hard to fill in the gaps, but there’s simply no way for them to do anything but guesstimate when they lack actual data for a significant and fast-changing part of the pharmacy market.

Adam FeinFounder & PresidentPEMBROKE CONSULTING INC

Dangers of Rogue Online Pharmacies

October 14, 2008

Analysis of:Online Overdose | columbusdispatch.com

The Columbus Dispatch published a six-part expose/overview about the diversion and sale of controlled substances. Mike Pramik, the reporter who wrote all six parts, has pulled together a must-read series. Since the Dispatch is also Cardinal Health’s (CAH) hometown paper, there are some good insights into the ways that Cardinal has dealt with the challenges of selling to potential rogue Internet pharmacies.

Adam FeinFounder & PresidentPEMBROKE CONSULTING INC

Cardinal Health Finally Resolves DEA Issue

October 9, 2008

Analysis of:Cardinal Health Resolves Controlled Substance License Suspensions | ir.cardinalhealth.com

Last week, Cardinal Health (CAH) announced agreements with the Drug Enforcement Adminstration (DEA) regarding its license suspensions for controlled substances. These suspensions had a negative impact on the company's sales and market position. The company even publicly apologized for its actions during the suspensions. (See Cardinal Health Apologizes to Customers - Council Site). With the formal agreement, it can now get back to business and focus on the core problems with its pharmaceutical distribution business.

John AnsellDirectorJohn Ansell Consultancy

Pfizer focuses down - but at the same time takes on more risk

October 8, 2008

Analysis of:Pfizer shifts focus to cancer and biotech drugs | ap.google.com

As the biggest pharmaceutical company, Pfizer's R & D needs to be more productive than any other company's if it is to survive and prosper. But Pfizer must have new products that are big if they are to make an impact on its bottom line. The conundrum is that disease is a diffuse market, with few very big pharmaceutical products to treat it, and far more smaller ones. Thus in 2007 there were only 52 products whose global sales exceeded $2 billion. A product with $2 billion turnover product would contribute 4% to Pfizer's total turnover - just about big enough to make a significant impact on its performance. But those 52 products are for all therapeutic areas. Therefore Pfizer in focusing down is aiming at a rather limited-size target. And rights to the majority of products becoming blockbusters will not be on offer to Pfizer as they will be retained by its competitors.

Adam FeinFounder & PresidentPEMBROKE CONSULTING INC

Cardinal Health Invests in China

October 6, 2008

Analysis of:Pharmaceutical distribution at the heart of Cardinal Health's China strategy | www.interfax.com

Cardinal Health (CAH) is rapidly growing its Chinese drug distribution business, while expanding manufacturing in India (but not China). This strategy is especially interesting given Cardinal’s planned separation of its supply chain division from clinical & medical products. The era of global wholesalers is coming, with or without a U.S. importation law.

Adam FeinFounder & PresidentPEMBROKE CONSULTING INC

Wal-Mart + Caterpillar: The Future of PBM & Pharmacy?

October 2, 2008

Analysis of:Caterpillar in prescription drug trial with Wal-Mart | in.reuters.com

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) announced an innovative new program with Caterpillar (CAT) that provides $0 co-pays on 2,500 generic drugs for 70,000 beneficiaries (employees, retirees, spouses, dependents). As I see it, the deal does not represent a direct frontal assault on PBMs such as Express Scripts (ESRX) or Medco Health Solutions (MHS). Instead, Wal-Mart is subtly undermining the PBM’s economic model, which is overly dependent on margins from generic drugs by mail. Wal-Mart’s program highlights these “excess” margins by offering an alternative channel choice. I’m also intrigued by the competitive comparison with CVS Caremark (CVS). Many of CVS Caremark's new benefit options try to create channel neutral choices (my terminology) within a restricted retail network. For example, Maintenance Choice is their drug benefit option that lets patients choose a 90-day supply from mail order or a local CVS retail outlet at the same cost or co-pay.

Carlos DujovneAffiliate Professor of MedicineOREGON HEALTH & SCIENCE UNIVERSITY - CC

Mutiple causes for no publications of many reports on FDA approved drugs.Some problems and solutions.

September 29, 2008

Analysis of:Many Trial Reports on FDA-Approved Drugs Go Unpublished | www.washingtonpost.com

This article is not news for clinical researchers like myself that have performed hundreds of clinical trials in collaboration with the Pharmaceutical Industry. Some of the most common reasons for that are: A)Negative studies are difficult to get published.B)Negative results for the dug of the sponsor company are of potentially damaging financial  for the sponsor.C)There is no FDA regulation that prohibits a sponsor to deny access to data and freedom of publication to Investigators of the trial not employed by them. Some of the possible solutions for these problems are:A)Complete freedom of access and publication of data by investigators.B)Sponsors of studies be obligated to submit result regardless of outcome,to FDA.C)Studies shall be easily searchable in a Google style manner at  FDA files,by naming a company ,a drug ,a condition,etc,etc.

Joseph BertinoIndependent ConsultantBertino Consulting

Gene Targeted Drug Therapy for Heart Failure

September 23, 2008

Analysis of:Gene Targeted Drug Therapy for Heart Failure | www.bio-medicine.org

-Another step towards invididualized medicine -Proves that old drugs can be reinvented for useful purposes -Advances pharmacogenetics forward

Adam FeinFounder & PresidentPEMBROKE CONSULTING INC

Wholesaler Impact of a Longs Drug Deal

September 16, 2008

Analysis of:Walgreen Jumps In With Rival Bid for Longs Drug | online.wsj.com

Walgreens (NYSE:WAG) and CVS Caremark (NYSE:CVS) are now in a bidding war for Longs Drug Stores (NYSE:LDG). No matter which company wins, the long-term outcome will probably be negative for AmerisourceBergen (NYSE:ABC), which is Longs’ primary wholesale supplier.  The sale of Longs Drug Stores will be one more step in the ongoing consolidation of the pharmacy supply chain.

Adam FeinFounder & PresidentPEMBROKE CONSULTING INC

Drug Importation and Global Wholesalers

September 12, 2008

Analysis of:Biotech industry not seeing much difference between McCain, Obama | thehill.com

Both Barack Obama and John McCain have made negative statements about the pharmaceutical industry. Both also favor drug importation into the U.S. from countries with price controls. The emergence of global wholesalers makes it more likely for an importation law to pass, despite the dangers to supply chain security.

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