GLG News by Handset Evaluators

Peter Curnow-FordChief Executive OfficerViatec Associates Ltd

Hunt for T-Mobile UK - worthy acquisition or a spoiling game?

July 5, 2009

Analysis of:Orange and even O2 may bid against Vodafone for T-Mobile UK | www.rethink-wireless.com

T-Mobile UK, as the 4th largest operator has one of the lowest ARPUs and is not gaining on its competitors and its valuation at Euro3.2bn is on the low side. It has excess capacity which could be attractive but that is not the issue, this is about a single move to become the UK's No1 mobile operator overnight and never have to look back over ones shoulder again. Further all the operators are currently at each others throats over 2G Re-Farming, Digital Dividend spectrum auctions and the Digital Britain Broadband Universal Service Obligation requirement that the UK government has put on the table - all this points to a market consolidation. Observers say the UK could end up with 3 mobile operators and just 2 networks plus a couple of major MVNOs!

Tarik FawziChief Executive OfficerAeneas Strategy

Opportunities and challenges for Vodafone in UK consolidation

June 29, 2009

Analysis of:Vodafone mulls offer for T-Mobile UK | www.telecompaper.com

Vodafone is seriously looking at taking over T-Mobile UK. This would lead to a 40% market share, way ahead current market leader O2. Vodafone has been focussing increasingly on the developing markets over the last three years, with minor fixed acquisitions in Europe. In that respect, being a potential consolidator in one of the most competitive and largest European markets, might come as a surprise.

Peter Curnow-FordChief Executive OfficerViatec Associates Ltd

Will T-Mobile exit the UK or find a merger partner?

May 1, 2009

Analysis of:Financial Times FT.com | www.ft.com

T-Mobile's parent companies have raised the topic of it, - exiting the UK market, - finding a merger partner (Hutchison's 3 network), - installing a new management team and fighting their way out. So could T-Mobile visulise not being in one of the most competitive markets in Europe, it would be a first as its been here since 1990. Second if it does exit, whither Virgin Mobile which is an MVNO based on T-Mobile's network with nearly 5m customers (approx 40% of T-Mobile's business) may find itself re-negotiating its contract? Meanwhile T-Mobile UK has entered into a JV with Hutchison 3, MBNL Ltd, for the future construction of its 3G network and sites. What if the new owner is not 3?

Peter Curnow-FordChief Executive OfficerViatec Associates Ltd

Nortel - decisions to purchase individual units all but made

April 24, 2009

Analysis of:Nortel's slide into oblivion | www.ottawacitizen.com

Nortel will not continue as a single unit, the Enterprise unit will be sold and the most probable purchaser is The Gores Group through Siemens Enterprise Networking. The Nortel Carrier/Wireless division will become part of Nokia Siemens Networks if and only if it provides the US market presence that NSN needs. Finally there is a big question as to what happens to the Nortel IP (Intellectual Property) pool, will somebody get access to this and be able to derive revenues from the patents or will they be lost to the individual purchasers.

Peter Curnow-FordChief Executive OfficerViatec Associates Ltd

Nokia's move to insourcing will impact the contract electronics manufacturers

March 30, 2009

Analysis of:Nokia cuts $5bn in costs with insourcing move | www.rethink-wireless.com

Last year, the giant was still on the outsourcing trail, farming out the manufacturing of about 17% of its phone assemblies to companies like Foxconn, BYD, Elcoteq and Jabil Circuit. Now it has decided to increase its rate of insourcing and in the process take $5bn out of its costs [or add to its margins]. This can only impact the Taiwan contract sector and its subsidiary factories in mainland China.

Peter Curnow-FordChief Executive OfficerViatec Associates Ltd

Macquarrie Bank - will it see a downturn at its tower business after Mobile Operators merge networks

March 27, 2009

Analysis of:Arqiva named as principal cell site partner for 3g network integration project | www.cellular-news.com

Will consolidation of cellular operators 3G network build have a positive or negative impact on MacQuarrie who after its recent merger of National Grid Wireless and Arqiva is the single largest tower owner in the UK? With mobile operators announcing radio network sharing ventures every week there has to be a downturn in the need for 3G radio sites going forward which will haven impact on revenues and net profits. Once built a tower is very profitable, but needs large capex requirements and for many operators debts and chapter 11 filings.

Peter Curnow-FordChief Executive OfficerViatec Associates Ltd

Wireless Regulation - its difficult marrying public and private interests

January 15, 2009

Analysis of:Private operators cry foul over BSNL WiMax services | www.businessstandard.com

It is understandable that the Indian government itself wishes to encourage any and all investment in wireless technologies that provide a direct benefit of delivering voice and data services to under served markets (circles in Indian terminology). However allowing a state operator to deploy a currently non-certifiable technology (FDD WiMAX) is detrimental to, - other state and private WiMAX operators - potential customers, they will be denied roaming and the ability to change providers with ease - other vendors as, other than SOMA, all current vendors comply with the approved TDD standard as set out by the WiMAX Forum. Decisions regarding reserve prices, and mapping WiMAX spectrum license costs against 3G are a local regulatory issue and the Indian operators can only use traditional lobby routes.

Peter Curnow-FordChief Executive OfficerViatec Associates Ltd

Fibre to the home is not a holy grail for UK Telco's. BT and C&W need to work harder.

January 5, 2009

Analysis of:UK behind in global rush to broadband | www.guardian.co.uk

The assumption that the UK is behind is false if on a relative basis you consider that 99.5% of the country has access to ADSL Max (up to 8Mbps DSL), 50% of the UK potentially has access to 50Mbps cable service. Currently FTTH (Fibre to the Home) would cost in at GBP28bn, approx US$42bn for every one of 26m households - even a limited role out of FTTN would cost GBP5bn or approx US$8bn. Finally getting the government to pay for this basically goes against the encouragement of the free market and competition.

Peter Curnow-FordChief Executive OfficerViatec Associates Ltd

New Clearwire - a positive step in the right direction

December 3, 2008

Analysis of:Sprint-Clearwire WiMAX deal clears final hurdle | www.bizjournals.com

With Clearwire targeting to provide coverage for over 140m people across continental US - and assuming it reaches a penetration rate of 10% over 3 years - thats 14m devices or nearly 5m per year. Clearwire will be supplying either directly or indirectly WiMAX modems, USB Dongles and laptops with built in WiMAX. By end 2009 there should also be volume supply of handheld devices. This means Asian OEMs & ODMs now have a clear market for their manufacturing capacity. More importantly it means smaller WiMAX operators can look to piggy back on this and obtain lower volumes and good rpices.

Kenneth EisnerSenior Vice President, Business Development and MaONE ECONOMY CORP.

What VCs Should Invest In ... In this Economy

November 24, 2008

Analysis of:What Should Investors Do Now? | online.wsj.com

Consumers aren't in a buying mood this holiday, but there are opportunities for new companies.  I don't recommend the hi-tech plays that won't actualize for another decade, but rather look at some opportunities that should spark demand in a 1-3 year time frame.  Anyway, it is the holiday season, and nothing goes better under the Christmas tree than a fresh bowl of optimism.

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