GLG News by Intermodal Logistics Experts

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railcar builders to enjoy another great year

January 30, 2012

Analysis of:North American Fourth Quarter Rail Freight Car Orders | www.bloomberg.com

Railcar orders stayed relatively close to deliveries during the fourth quarter of 2011, and the backlog stayed above 64,000 cars. Although many of the backlogged orders are for delivery beyond 2012, most will be built this year, propelling builder deliveries well beyond the 47,000 rail cars manufactured in 2011.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Environmentalists and the EPA are likely to stop U.S. West Coast coal exports through 2012

January 19, 2012

Analysis of:Two coal companies want to export coal through the Port of St. Helens | www.oregonlive.com

Powder River Basin coal is currently being transported by railroad to Vancouver BC for export to China, but an export terminal on the Columbia River between Washington and Oregon could capture this traffic and allow for even more tonnage to be exported.  The Pacific Northwest is “greenie” territory, however, and environmentalists have been very successful to date in blocking the permitting of any new coal terminals in “their” region.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Trucking hours-of-service regulations "final rule redo" released with negative implications

December 30, 2011

Analysis of:Hours-of-Service (HOS) Final Rule (December 2011) | www.fmcsa.dot.gov

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) released its trucking hours-of-service (HOS) regulation in response to a lawsuit agreement from the 2003 HOS Regulation limitations. The new rule will cost the most productive truck drivers in pay and logbook “gotchas,” cost trucking companies in productivity (profits) and cost shippers more. All of this is passed on to us consumers. The new rules take effect in mid-2013, but the 2003 Regulation-related lawsuit will most probably be reconstituted anyway.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

The driver pay lawsuit against Swift Transportation highlights a well-known issue

September 16, 2011

Analysis of:Arizona Supreme Court lets drivers' case against Swift go to trial | www.ccjdigital.com

Truck driver pay within the freight industry is based on work performed. The metric used by 90% of firms is length-of-trip “miles” – but there are different approaches used in employment contracts. Driver pay makes up the largest company expense (25% of revenue) so a few percentage points of pay increases and back-pay costs can be huge. This suit will cost Swift Transportation legal fees – and will result in more detail in driver contracts.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Will Freightliner's 2015-2018 greenhouse gas fuel mileage pitch equal more sales?

September 7, 2011

Analysis of:Freightliner Says Fuel Economy, Uptime Prime Directives for 2011 and Beyond | www.truckinginfo.com

Truck-maker Freightliner recently laid out its thoughts on how it will stay ahead of the recently announced Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) greenhouse gas emissions and fuel efficiency standards for medium - and heavy-duty engines and vehicles. The plan is great for marketing and engineers, but not necessarily for sales.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railroad intermodal traffic predicted to continue growing

August 30, 2011

Analysis of:Big shippers see continued demand slowdown | www.dcvelocity.com

A recent survey of shippers indicated that a modal shift from trucking to railroad may be boosting railroad traffic more than lackluster economic and import growth would suggest. The recent surge in orders for new 53’ well cars from The Greenbrier Companies may continue if truck traffic continues to migrate to railroad.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railroad profitability probably won't limit freight rate increases

August 24, 2011

Analysis of:Union Pacific crosses profitability threshold | www.ft.com

For the first time, Union Pacific Railroad earned more on its invested capital in 2010 than its total cost of capital, and the other major U.S. railroads most likely did the same. However, if the experience of the Norfolk Southern Railroad is any guide, freight rate increases are not likely to slow. That railroad has earned more than its cost of capital in almost every year since 2003 and yet its freight rate increases resembled other railroads.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Daimler Freightliner 2015-2018 Fuel Mileage Pitch Underway

August 19, 2011

Analysis of:Freightliner Says Fuel Economy, Uptime Prime Directives for 2011 and Beyond | www.truckinginfo.com

Truck-maker Freightliner recently laid out their thoughts on how they will stay ahead of the recently announced Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) “Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium - and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles.” It’s great for marketing and engineers, but how about sales?

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Industrial Sand: New boom for rail traffic and railcar builders

August 19, 2011

Analysis of:Natural Gas Extraction Creates A Boom For Sand | www.npr.org

Industrial sand is used in the hydro-fracking method of oil and gas extraction from shale rock formations and demand is exploding as energy companies develop new wells. Demand for the small cube covered hoppers used to transport the material is also booming, taking up the slack from the decline in ethanol car production. Shipments of Industrial Sand could soon match those of Ethanol which are beginning to peak after climbing in a short time from almost nothing to about 2% of all railroad carloads.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railroad domestic coal traffic forecasted to fall in 2012

August 12, 2011

Analysis of:EIA sees small decline in US coal consumption in 2012 | www.platts.com

The EIA has forecasted that coal use by domestic utilities will fall another 3% in 2012, which should have a similar impact railroad coal traffic numbers. Although coal exports increased this year to almost offset the decline in domestic coal use, they are not expected to increase significantly above the 100 million tons projected for 2011. Therefore the decline in domestic consumption is expected negatively impact railroad traffic in 2012.

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