GLG News by Intermodal Logistics Experts

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Class 8 Diesel Engine Trends - Integrated Approaches Showing In Market Share

February 21, 2011

Truck-builders are moving toward putting their own engines in their own trucks / buses (internal / vertical integration) addressing a variety of issues including cost, profits, complexity, etc. Cummins Inc. and (now non-player) Caterpillar, Inc. share has been displaced by integrated approaches of Volvo, Paccar, Inc and Navistar Corporation. That trend is showing up in the Wards Communications numbers, which we our share "derived share-info" in the following.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Freight Car deliveries and Orders exploded in fourth quarter

February 18, 2011

Analysis of:North American Fourth Quarter Rail Freight Car Orders | www.bloomberg.com

Rail car deliveries almost doubled from third quarter levels and orders advanced on the already healthy levels reported last October. Trinity Industries announced that their deliveries doubled and Greenbrier reported substantially higher deliveries from their previous respective quarters. Only FreightCar America and American Railcar have not reported fourth quarter activities, and they are expected to announce similar results.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Aftermarket Parts and Service Sector Really Growing - Can OEM's Take Share?

February 12, 2011

Sales of "part's" for vehicles / equipment in-service are the most profitable part of a durable goods business. Trucking is no different, but offers bigger growth potential today - and in the future. Those well-positioned in the after-warranty space will see more opportunity. With new truck pricing, tougher financing, etc. - older trucks are being put back into service and kept longer. Therein lies more opportunity.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Rail traffic decrease due to weather

February 11, 2011

Analysis of:Intermodal Traffic Takes First Dip in a Year | www.ttnews.com

Almost coincidentally with a storm in early 2010, weather hampered rail operations during the week ending February 5th. Carload traffic just matched the same week last year and intermodal traffic was down 1.5%. Both because traffic will return to normal and because last year’s storm occurred during this week, carload and intermodal traffic are expected to post major gains for the week which will end Feb. 12th.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Based backlogs, Greenbrier could be dominant railcar builder in 2011

February 4, 2011

Analysis of:Rail-car deliveries to reach 27,000 units in 2011, EPA says | www.progressiverailroading.com

The fourth quarter results from the railcar builder’s association had a big surprise: deliveries jumped from 3,706 in the third quarter to 7,333 cars in the fourth. One builder is expected to announce that their deliveries increased by 300%. The orders came in as expected, and The Greenbrier Companies, which has already reported their first quarter results, ended the year with what is expected to be the largest backlog of all the builders.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Railroad Internal Numbers Give Some Interesting Insight Into The Economy

January 30, 2011

Analysis of:AAR: “Modest gains” in Week 3 traffic | www.railwayage.com

Union Pacific Corporation, Berkshire Hathaway owned BNSF, CSX and Norfolk Southern have reported their good 4th Quarter numbers revenue growth in the teens with profits up double of that and OR's around 70. Everything except for autos and building materials look good, so what does that mean? Our esteemed colleague Toby Kolstad addresses this sector very well, so we'll just add some comments on how us truckers look at it.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Truckload Truckers' Numbers Looking UP - With A Couple (Good) Surprises

January 28, 2011

Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2010 Truckload (TL) Carriers are reporting better results across the board. Swift Transportation and Knight Transportation are even adding notable capacity! Heres a quick look...

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

“Modest gains” is too timid; Railroad carload traffic is “growing strongly”!

January 28, 2011

Analysis of:AAR: “Modest gains” in Week 3 traffic | www.railwayage.com

The AAR categorization of last week’s traffic gains as modest only looks at the absolute numbers: 1.5% carload growth compared to the same week last year. When the weekly gyrations in carload totals in past years and the severe weather that has plagued the nation since the start of this year are considered, any gains reflect a recovering economy and a strong railroad performance. Carload traffic is expected to grow 3% in 2011, which in normal times would reflect a booming economy.

John WilkersonExecutive DirectorBELLWETHER SERVICES, LLC

California AB 32; This Decades Global Supply Chain Game Changer

January 24, 2011

Analysis of:California Assembly Bill 32: Global Warming Solutions Act | www.arb.ca.gov

Since 2006 the State of California has been aggressively provided national leadership on the Global Warming challenge.   The California Air Resources Board has developed an 2020 implementation plan that has North American and Global Supply Chain implications.  Firms including Dell, Wal-Mart, Whole Foods and Office Depot are among a select group of business climate change leaders that are defining how global supply chains will operate in the near future.    

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

CSA 2010 Effect On Driver Shortage - Not So Much In The Near Term...

January 23, 2011

Nascent freight predictions have many fleets and investors turning their focus toward the impact of CSA 2010, the aging driver pool and other issues on "an impending acute" driver shortage. Our requests around what CSA 2010 really means - are up from shippers, logistics providers, smaller truckers and others watching the industry. We agree that the driver pool is changing, but we don't see it as the crisis and happening as quickly as some think. Here are some thoughts.

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