GLG News by Intermodal Railcar Experts

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Greenbrier hides shrinking marine backlog behind political smokescreen

June 4, 2010

Analysis of:Gunderson slashes marine production | www.bizjournals.com

The Greenbrier Companies recently tried to blame the city of Portland’s recent passage of an environmental plan for the Willamette River for its cutback of barge construction at its Gunderson Marine Division. CEO William Furman also blamed the soft barge market on the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The only logical reason for the decision to lower the production rate is a declining backlog and the possibility of a total shutdown before another order is booked. Why all the hype?

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railcar market continues to be misunderstood

May 26, 2010

Analysis of:Wilbur Ross mulls rail, real estate, casino investments | www.reuters.com

Wilbur Ross’s private equity firm recently purchased 4,000 railcars for around $230M and gave the management contract for the cars to Greenbrier, its rail industry partner. In a press release, Ross said that last year one third of all railcars were idle and that this year that figure has been cut in half. He is partially mistaken. While the real numbers may look better, the situation is much worse and a recovery in the leasing market for most car types is a long way off.

John SchulzIndependent Analyst - Contributing EditorLogistics Management Magazine

FedEx vs. UPS: Round 1,354

May 25, 2010

Analysis of:Cargo Carriers Pose Conundrum for Air Safety Bill | www.buffalonews.com

The nation's two small parcel giants--UPS and FedEx--are locked into a high-stakes lobbying war in Washington that could spell the end of FedEx's non-union status for its tens of thousands of truck drivers. UPS wants FedEx's parcel ground drivers to fall under the National Labor Relations Act,  the same law that governs most of its 250,000 or so Teamsters. FedEx is arguing it deserves to stay under the Railway Labor Act, which has governed FedEx since its founding in 1971.

John SchulzIndependent Analyst - Contributing EditorLogistics Management Magazine

Wal-Mart's Push for Transport Efficiency = Bad News for Carriers

May 24, 2010

Analysis of:Wal-Mart Seeks More Control of Its Transportation | Transport Topics Online | Trucking, Freight Transportation and Logistics News | www.ttnews.com

Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, wants more in-house control over its transportation suppliers. That means taking over transportation deliveries to its 4,000 stores and warehouse clubs where it deems its in-house network of private carriage can perform the same services better.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Rail Traffic is signalling a “new normal”

May 18, 2010

Analysis of:Rail Traffic Recovery Continues | www.thestreet.com

Rail traffic fell so far during the second quarter of 2009 that record year-over-year gains were expected for the second quarter of 2010 even if traffic did not continue to increase beyond the levels recorded during the first quarter. During the past few weeks that is unfortunately what seems to be developing as rail traffic settles to the “new normal” levels for the economy. However, weekly postings by the AAR are expected to continue to show record levels of improvement, at least until June.

John SchulzIndependent Analyst - Contributing EditorLogistics Management Magazine

Looking for IdleAire?It is Back.

May 18, 2010

Analysis of:IdleAire to Reopen at 23 Locations | www.ttnews.com

IdleAire, the innovative maker of in-cab auxiliary power units and air conditioning and electric outlets, says it is reopening its facilities at 23 truck stops. It had ceased operations in January. The company says on its Web site it is planning to restart IdleAire services "in the near future."

John SchulzIndependent Analyst - Contributing EditorLogistics Management Magazine

If Your Company's Trucks Aren't Full Now, Something is Wrong

May 17, 2010

Analysis of:Truckload Spot Freight HIts Two-Year High | www.mmsend54.com

One index of spot market truckload volumes leaped 291 percent in April from year-ago levels. This index, as compiled by TransCore, is at its highest since June 2008. April's rise was the seventh straight month in gains, according to TransCore's North American Freight Index.

John SchulzIndependent Analyst - Contributing EditorLogistics Management Magazine

Werner and TL Brethren in Line for Freight Bounce

May 14, 2010

Analysis of:Worst is over, Werner exec says | www.omaha.com

Werner Enterprises,  the nation's third-largest truckload carrier, says it is seeing increasing evidence of a solid economic turnaround which will help the nation's trucking companies increase freight volumes and rates. "The worst is in our rear-view mirror," Werner COO Derek Leathers tells the Omaha World-Herald.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

New railcar delivery forecast may be too optimistic

May 11, 2010

Analysis of:Freight-car deliveries to gradually increase during next two years, EPA says | www.progressiverailroading.com

Some forecasters are predicting that new railcar production will climb back to normal levels within a few years. That is a hopeful goal, but the problems affecting two major car types that historically have accounted for 60% of the new railcar market may put it out of reach. Demand for coal and imported goods (not including oil) may take a little longer to recover than the forecasts envision.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railcars should continue to exceed early projections for profits in 2010

May 6, 2010

Analysis of:Norfolk Southern Beats on Revenues | finance.yahoo.com

All major US railroads reported outstanding gains in profits during the first quarter, although one was more dependent on increases in revenue per carload than the others. All reported operation ratios near 75%, well under the ratios posted last year but comparable to their performance in the fourth quarter. With coal traffic back to the “new normal” in the second quarter, the railroads should continue to outpace the earlier forecasts of both revenues and profits.

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