GLG News by Intermodal Railcar Experts

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Trinity stumbles in new railcar market

April 30, 2010

Analysis of:Trinity Industries, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results | finance.yahoo.com

Following the merger of Thrall Car and Trinity Industries in 2001, the market share of the combined companies plunged from 65% to 25% during the last recession. Trinity made great progress in recovering their lost share in the years before the Great Recession, rising to well over 40% in 2009. This year, however, they appear to have lost it all, with just 20% of deliveries and 23% of all new orders during the first quarter.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

GATX marine unit may be profitable this year

April 27, 2010

Analysis of:Cargo shipments on Great Lakes quadruple in March | www.fox21online.com

In recent years, 25% of GATX revenue came from bulk shipments on the Great Lakes moving in their American Steamship Company carriers. In 2009, those revenues fell to just 14% of total income. The 400% gain in bulk shipping during March, the start of the Great Lakes cargo season, suggests that revenues may rebound strongly in 2010 and that this division may return to profitability.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

EPA and popular opinion spell big trouble for Coal and RR coal traffic

April 20, 2010

Analysis of:Coal in for a Bumpy Ride and a Final Decline | www.huffingtonpost.com

Colorado recently passed a bill that will require a utility to install natural gas fired boilers. In Oregon, the single coal fired plant in the state will also be converted to natural gas within five years. In the East, the tragedy in underground mine and the recent court order restricting mountain top removal mining in the same region have also diminished the prospects for coal in the future. Nationally, this product accounts for over 40% of railroad traffic and over 30% of railroad freight revenues.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

CSX profits rise mainly on rate increases for coal shipments

April 14, 2010

Analysis of:CSX sees shipments up across the board this year | finance.yahoo.com

While CSX reported that shipments were up across the board, they were speaking in general terms but referring specifically to traffic levels during the first quarter of 2009. Compared to the fourth quarter of last year, intermodal shipments were down 5% as might be expected for this seasonal traffic and carload traffic was only up 1%, mostly due to the lackluster growth (2%) of coal traffic. Profits increased so much because average freight rates for coal movements increased 12% since last quarter.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Great Expectations, but that’s all for the railcar builders

April 13, 2010

Analysis of:Greenbrier Q2 Hints At Rising Rail Demand | www.investors.com

Hope for the railcar builders springs eternal, but reality will eventually have to be considered. It is true that railroad traffic has rebounded from the depths to which it plunged last summer; that railcars that had been stored are being reactivated; and that railroad train speeds are decreasing, increasing the car cycle times and decreasing the number of loads per year that each railcar can handle. However, traffic has a long way to go before it reached the levels recorded a few years ago.

John SchulzIndependent Analyst - Contributing EditorLogistics Management Magazine

Revolving Door Continues at YRC Worldwide

April 13, 2010

Analysis of:YRC’s President Leaves for Health Care Job | blogs.barrons.com

Tom Wicks, president and COO of YRC Worldwide, is leaving after less than two years at the company. Wicks is returning to United HealthCare, a unit of United Health, the company he left to join YRC in 2008. Wicks worked at UHC for six years before going to YRC, the financially troubled trucking company.

Dirk StammnitzFormer General ManagerC.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC.

The global freight transportation picture is showing signs of a recovery!

April 8, 2010

Early results in 2010 indicate that overall freight volumes continue to improve across all modes within North America and from overseas trade as well. This increase coupled with tightening capacity is already bringing about some long awaited pricing stability and changing the behavior among shippers to start thinking more long term. This will certainly benefit both carriers and brokers alike as they enter this early recovery.

John SchulzIndependent Analyst - Contributing EditorLogistics Management Magazine

Truckers Exhale: No New Fuel Taxes, DOT says

March 26, 2010

Analysis of:DOT Rebuffs New Talk of Raising Fuel Taxes | www.joc.com

A top official of the Department of Transportation says the Obama administration has not changed its stance in opposition to raising the federal tax on motor fuels. That tax has gone unchanged since 1993, and highway advocacy groups say it is inadequate to fund this country's infrastructure needs.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

UP must have had a very poor outlook for 2010

March 16, 2010

Analysis of:Union Pacific CEO sees signs of improved economy | www.themorningsun.com

Jim Young, CEO of the Union Pacific Railroad, recently stated that his railroad’s shipments are stronger this year than was anticipated; they must have anticipated a terrible year. Overall, UP shipments, as posted to the AAR, are up 6.5% over the levels posted during the 4th quarter, compared to 4.9% for their 3 other Class I cousins. More gains are expected later in the year as coal traffic increases after the utilities stop reducing their stockpiles.

John SchulzIndependent Analyst - Contributing EditorLogistics Management Magazine

This is Not Your Grandfather's Teamsters union

March 4, 2010

Analysis of:L.A. Local 848 Members Say No to Big Wheels | www.tdu.org

A major Teamsters local in Los Angeles has voted to cancel a request to spend $59,000 on a new GMC Yukon for Eric Tate, Local 848's secretary-treasurer. He was the hand-picked successor to Jim Santangelo, the long-time leader of the Los Angeles local who was driven out of power by the dissident Teamsters for a Democratic Union.

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