GLG News by Intermodal Railcar Experts

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

How does a 15% decline in traffic idle 30% of railcar fleet?

February 18, 2010

Analysis of:Railcars Return Slowly | www.joc.com

There are approximately 1.6 million railcars in North America, and various reports have shown over a third of them to be surplus to the needs of the railroad industry or its shippers during the past year. Traffic only declined 15% during the year, and there were only a few surplus cars before the recession began, so where did all the surplus equipment arise?

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railroad intermodal traffic will increase this year; it really will!

February 9, 2010

Analysis of:Stacked for Growth | www.joc.com

Railroad executives love reporters who serve up softball questions, like the one about their billions in CapEx expenditures in 2010, which is about the same percentage of revenue as in the past, or about their fast trains without mentioning how they are primarily due to low traffic levels.  As for their efforts to increase intermodal business this year, they almost cannot fail, given the depths of the decline in the summer of 2009 and the gains that have already been posted since then.

John SchulzIndependent Analyst - Contributing EditorLogistics Management Magazine

Next Great Success Story in Trucking: Greatwide Logistics

February 3, 2010

Analysis of:Greatwide Chairman Suggs Replaces Greer as CEO | www.google.com

Greatwide Logistics, Dallas, has replaced Ray Greer as CEO with its chairman, Leo Suggs, former chairman and CEO of UPS Freight. John Simone will continue as Greatwide president and COO. Greatwide has emerged from 2008 Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings and recently bought the dedicated logistics business of the logistics unit of YRC Worldwide.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

NS needs to have its vision checked; most of its markets are unchanged

February 2, 2010

Analysis of:Norfolk Southern Executives: Seeing Improvement In Most Core Markets | money.cnn.com

Notwithstanding the recent news release that business conditions are improving in most of the railroad's core markets, the weekly numbers released by the AAR for January show traffic gains in only one are area (automobile and auto parts traffic) over last year’s numbers for the same weeks. However, the usual bounce from the holiday lows is still in progress and there may be some wishful thinking that the numbers will go even higher.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Wind energy continues to eat into coal’s domain

January 29, 2010

Analysis of:Record Year for New Wind Power Installations in the U.S. | www.energyonline.com

As recently as last January, the EIA of the Department of Energy was forecasting an increase of over 6 Gigawatts of new coal fired electrical power and only 2 Gigawatts of new wind energy. At year end, the totals were a little different, with wind power increasing over 9 Gigawatts and coal fired electric installations totaling only 4.8 Gigawatts. These trends do not bode well for rail transportation.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railroad traffic is good coincident indicator

January 22, 2010

Analysis of:Railroads Signal a Tepid US Economic Recovery | abcnews.go.com

Like the canary in the coal mine, railroad traffic is a good indicator of what is happening now, but don’t try to see the future in the weekly AAR carload and intermodal reports. Rail carload traffic showed mixed signs in the fourth quarter and intermodal loads showed no real improvement after seasonality adjustments. That’s not very encouraging to those expecting to see a big jump in the GDP for the fourth quarter or for continued growth in 2010.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Rail Fans are usually lousy railroad investors

January 18, 2010

Analysis of:Freight trains make big comeback in nation's transportation network | www.latimes.com

Traditionally, they only way railroads made real money in the past was by selling their properties to other companies at inflated prices that anticipated better earning than would ever develop. Too much is made of the fuel efficiency of a railroad operation and too little is said of the long delivery times by railroad compared to transport by highway, and little mention is ever made of the dependence of railroads on the movement of coal.

John SchulzIndependent Analyst - Contributing EditorLogistics Management Magazine

FedEx Picture Not as Gloomy as Market Reaction

December 17, 2009

Analysis of:FedEx's Second-Quarter Profit Falls 30% on Lower Prices | www.marketwatch.com

FedEx Corp., long considered a bellwether economic predictor, issued quarterly earnings that were off 30 percent for its quarter than ended Nov. 30. The decline was mainly because of a sharp dropoff in fuel surcharges. FedEx shares fell nearly 5 percent on the news, but are still up 34 percent for the year.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Rising tides cans sink some boats as well as lift them

December 6, 2009

Analysis of:Freight Adds Weight on Broad Rally | www.thestreet.com

For some railcar builders, the recovery will be measured in years, not months, and they may be the lucky ones. It is too early to confirm, but there may have been a fundamental shift in railroad traffic, and not all builders are positioned to benefit from the recovery in railroad traffic that is expected in 2010. Only time will tell if there will be another industry shakeout like the early 1980’s.

John SchulzIndependent Analyst - Contributing EditorLogistics Management Magazine

YRC's Survival Hanging on Chicago Locals Vote?

December 3, 2009

Analysis of:New Threat: YRC May Close if Chicago Votes No | www.tdu.org

The Teamsters union leadership has been told that YRC Worldwide will shut down if 1,500 Teamsters in Chicago don't approve a $1.16 an hour pay cut. That's what Teamsters Freight Director Tyson Johnson and Teamsters Vice President Pay Flynn have told workers at the nation's largest trucking company, according to a report on the Web site of the Teamsters for a Democratic Union, the dissident wing of the 1.4 million member union.

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