GLG News by Iron Ore Mining Experts

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Greenbrier benefits from change in intermodal logistics

March 18, 2011

Analysis of:Greenbrier Nabs Orders for 4,200 Railcars | www.joc.com

The recent spate of orders for intermodal railcars seems to defy logic when one counts the thousands of relatively new intermodal cars in storage. However, there have been a few operational changes in the intermodal sector which are driving the need for intermodal cars designed to carry 53’ (domestic) containers. All of the intermodal cars in storage have 40’ wells and are best suited for the international containers.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

GATX and Trinity Industries make up

March 15, 2011

Analysis of:GATX to buy 12.5K railcars from Trinity over 5 yrs | www.whbf.com

Four years ago, Trinity Industries was so aggressive in the leasing business that GATX and other major railcar leasing companies were grumbling that they might not buy cars from them anymore. Time and low prices have always smoothed ruffled feathers and that is what seems to have apparently happened just now. GATX has purchased large quantities of railcar in the past from Trinity and their recent order signals both a renewed confidence in the market and a close relationship to a major builder.

Jack LiftonCo-founder and DirectorTechnology Metals Research, LLC

The Impact of the Japanese Earthquake on the Demand for Rare Earths 1/2 of 2011

March 14, 2011

The second largest demand for rare earths is that of the Japanese domestic manufacturing industry (the first is that from the Chinese).Chinese production (global supply) of rare earths will not be affected by the Japanese earthquake. Japanese demand for the rare earths will decrease in the near term.Will the Chinese move to increase their market share of rare earth using end products? Perhaps, but that is not an immediate concern,.

Jack LiftonCo-founder and DirectorTechnology Metals Research, LLC

The Effect on Neodymium and Dysprosium Supply of China's Domestic Growth

March 13, 2011

China's green-tech/cleantech growth targets as stated in the just-put-into-effect 12th five-year plan are ambitious. What is their effect on China's domestic demand for the two most important rare earth metals, neodymium and dysprosium?

Jack LiftonCo-founder and DirectorTechnology Metals Research, LLC

Understanding the Low Prices of the Rare Earths in China Itself

February 27, 2011

Li Gang, Deputy Gov. of the Peoples Bank of China said on Sat, Feb 26,2011  “In addition to boosting the flexibility of the yuan exchange rate, China also should adjust resource prices to address imbalances,” he said, “as many resources are still traded in China at below their natural prices[ Emphasis added by me]. China also should boost wages and social benefits to lift consumption, step up its enforcement of environment regulations and undertake other structural reforms to address imbalances.”

Jack LiftonCo-founder and DirectorTechnology Metals Research, LLC

Why Toyota and Daimler Looked At And Passed On Tesla

February 26, 2011

It is far cheaper for Global 1000 manufacturers to pay technology developers for a look-see at their wares than to try and develop tens of thousands of even good ideas in-house. Toyota and Daimler follow this rule of limiting their costs on reserach and development.For this reason, primarily, they both paid some money or, in the case of Toyota, gave a discount to Tesla for a look at its battery use technology.Neither one seems to have been impressed.The pump and dump press has ignored this.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

FreightCar America sustained by orders for export coal cars

February 22, 2011

Analysis of:Norfolk Southern to buy cars | www2.timesdispatch.com

Norfolk Southern Corporation recently announced their order of 3,000 steel and aluminum/steel hybrid coal cars for delivery in 2011-2012, matching an almost identical order of CSX Corporation for cars to be delivered in 2010-2011. Both companies are expected to use the cars primarily to transport coal destined for export from East Coast ports. FreightCar America seems to have a lock on the market for these cars, but is suffering from the general downturn in the coal car market.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Freight Car deliveries and Orders exploded in fourth quarter

February 18, 2011

Analysis of:North American Fourth Quarter Rail Freight Car Orders | www.bloomberg.com

Rail car deliveries almost doubled from third quarter levels and orders advanced on the already healthy levels reported last October. Trinity Industries announced that their deliveries doubled and Greenbrier reported substantially higher deliveries from their previous respective quarters. Only FreightCar America and American Railcar have not reported fourth quarter activities, and they are expected to announce similar results.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Rail traffic decrease due to weather

February 11, 2011

Analysis of:Intermodal Traffic Takes First Dip in a Year | www.ttnews.com

Almost coincidentally with a storm in early 2010, weather hampered rail operations during the week ending February 5th. Carload traffic just matched the same week last year and intermodal traffic was down 1.5%. Both because traffic will return to normal and because last year’s storm occurred during this week, carload and intermodal traffic are expected to post major gains for the week which will end Feb. 12th.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Based backlogs, Greenbrier could be dominant railcar builder in 2011

February 4, 2011

Analysis of:Rail-car deliveries to reach 27,000 units in 2011, EPA says | www.progressiverailroading.com

The fourth quarter results from the railcar builder’s association had a big surprise: deliveries jumped from 3,706 in the third quarter to 7,333 cars in the fourth. One builder is expected to announce that their deliveries increased by 300%. The orders came in as expected, and The Greenbrier Companies, which has already reported their first quarter results, ended the year with what is expected to be the largest backlog of all the builders.

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