GLG News by Iron Ore Mining Experts

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Kansas City Southern Railway Company is a case of permanent potential

June 24, 2010

Analysis of:Standard & Poor’s raises Kansas City Southern’s bond rating | kansascity.bizjournals.com

The recent Kansas City Southern Railway Company (KSU) swap of equity for debt was made possible not only by the company’s currently strong operating performance and recent traffic gains, but also by the perennial optimism of its shareholders. This small regional railroad has enjoyed the PE ratio of a high growth company long after it divested its highly profitable non-rail divisions several years ago. The future earnings needed to justify this PE ratio seem to be out of reach and out of sight.

Jack LiftonCo-founder and DirectorTechnology Metals Research, LLC

China's Currency Valuation Change and the Rare Earth Mining Sector

June 19, 2010

Analysis of:China Signals a Gradual Rise in Value of Its Currency | www.nytimes.com

China, today, June 19, 2010, announced that its national currency, the renminbi, will from now on be linked to the value of a "basket" of currencies rather than "just" the US dollar. Rare earth mining entrepreneurs outside of China will tell you that this is now a reason to buy into their ventures or to support IPOs for them. But I think there is another side to the coin. One that should give investors looking at the rare earth mining sector pause.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

A no brainer: railroad profits to climb in the second quarter

June 15, 2010

Analysis of:Analyst says rails headed for strong 2Q earnings | finance.yahoo.com

Unlike many companies and industries, railroads report traffic levels by company and by commodity on a weekly basis to the American Association of Railroads (AAR). It is not too hard to extrapolate carloads to revenue and profits; from the data through the 22nd week of the year and halfway through the second quarter, the railroads are on pace to record a 2.3% gain over the first quarter and a 13% gain over the second quarter of 2009. Some companies like Norfolk Southern Corporation will do even better.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Stock sale may signal something amiss at Trinity Industries

June 10, 2010

Analysis of:Trinity Industries CEO's $2.6 Million Sale | online.barrons.com

Timothy R. Wallace, CEO of Trinity Industries, made a wise move when he bought over 15,000 shares of his company in March of 2009 when it was selling for $7.18 per share. He should have bought more. He was one of many smart executives who bought shares in their companies when the stock market was crashing and pricing companies at less than their book value. He probably was also acting wisely when he sold over 100,000 shares recently at $23.65.

Matthew MurphyManaging DirectorMMLC Group

China's Auto Industry - Top Ten Manufacturers and Key Government Issues

June 9, 2010

Analysis of:China’s New Anti-Monopoly Law – an analysis of recent decisions regarding foreign investment and trade | www.mmlcgroup.com

This article looks at the top ten passenger vehicle manufacturers by sales in 2009, and briefly touches on the latest government policy for regulation of the industry. It also briefly looks at the key government departments involved in regulating investment in the auto industry in China.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Greenbrier hides shrinking marine backlog behind political smokescreen

June 4, 2010

Analysis of:Gunderson slashes marine production | www.bizjournals.com

The Greenbrier Companies recently tried to blame the city of Portland’s recent passage of an environmental plan for the Willamette River for its cutback of barge construction at its Gunderson Marine Division. CEO William Furman also blamed the soft barge market on the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The only logical reason for the decision to lower the production rate is a declining backlog and the possibility of a total shutdown before another order is booked. Why all the hype?

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railcar market continues to be misunderstood

May 26, 2010

Analysis of:Wilbur Ross mulls rail, real estate, casino investments | www.reuters.com

Wilbur Ross’s private equity firm recently purchased 4,000 railcars for around $230M and gave the management contract for the cars to Greenbrier, its rail industry partner. In a press release, Ross said that last year one third of all railcars were idle and that this year that figure has been cut in half. He is partially mistaken. While the real numbers may look better, the situation is much worse and a recovery in the leasing market for most car types is a long way off.

Jack LiftonCo-founder and DirectorTechnology Metals Research, LLC

China Seeks Self Sufficiency in Automotive Exhaust Emission Catalytic Converters

May 25, 2010

Analysis of:China seals African platinum deal | www.ft.com

China is now the largest producer of motor vehicles of any one country; it has almost certainly already surpassed the United States for that title permanently. In 2009 China produced 13.5 million motor vehicles; it is predicted that this production rate will reach 18 million per annum by 2015; and 21 million per annum in 2020.The exhaust from internal combustion engines using hydrocarbon fuels is cleaned by catalytic converters using the properties of platinum, palladium, and rhodium

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Rail Traffic is signalling a “new normal”

May 18, 2010

Analysis of:Rail Traffic Recovery Continues | www.thestreet.com

Rail traffic fell so far during the second quarter of 2009 that record year-over-year gains were expected for the second quarter of 2010 even if traffic did not continue to increase beyond the levels recorded during the first quarter. During the past few weeks that is unfortunately what seems to be developing as rail traffic settles to the “new normal” levels for the economy. However, weekly postings by the AAR are expected to continue to show record levels of improvement, at least until June.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

New railcar delivery forecast may be too optimistic

May 11, 2010

Analysis of:Freight-car deliveries to gradually increase during next two years, EPA says | www.progressiverailroading.com

Some forecasters are predicting that new railcar production will climb back to normal levels within a few years. That is a hopeful goal, but the problems affecting two major car types that historically have accounted for 60% of the new railcar market may put it out of reach. Demand for coal and imported goods (not including oil) may take a little longer to recover than the forecasts envision.

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