Deeper Analysis Required - Stability Likely
April 14, 2008
Hotels Most Vulnerable to Recession Scenario | nreionline.com
On the surface, statements seem valid and perhaps are for individual properties and new construction plans. The structured financings inside management contracts and leases provide relatively stable cash flow for the real property owners and lenders that are the underlying financiers of the hotel industry. Hotel management companies that are the "Names" on the hotel will suffer reduced net income, but flat or slightly shrinking GDP should not cause major hotel real estate defaults. There are even one or two new hotel "Names" entering the U.S. market.
A Processing Giant Assessing Its Futures Future in a World of Turmoil
April 4, 2008
MF Global considers financing options | www.reuters.com
MF Global is one of the key players in the global exchange traded derivatives (ETD) brokerage industry with the power to make and potentially, to break, markets, leading to some fascinating -and very significant- political dynamics within the industry. MF Global has been stung by recent activity on the rumour mill as well as its own frank admission of a risk system failure that cost it dearly. MF Global has a massive opportunity but knows it must work hard to ensure its reputation is whiter than white - particularly as some of its acquisitions have included key elements of the tarnished Refco name etc.
Amazon Attempts a Monopolsts's Squeze
April 2, 2008
Amazon Tightens Noose on Print-On-Demand Publishers; Insists They Use Company's Own Service | www.washingtonpost.com
Amazon is attempting to own the book business by exercising control of the small fast growing independent end of the market. Ultimately having done much good for book buyers and helped publishers, Amazon is now in danger of squeezing the small houses they have helped encourage. Book publishing is in danger of having a very significant element of control levied by Amazon which will profit Messrs Bezos and Company in the short term but not in any way assist the development or innovation in the publishing business. In the long term Amazon will see their catalogue shrink. Their market share will decline and they will stifle the growth of the book publishing business. Make no mistake, this is a very very bad day for technological innovators, small businesses and publishing as an industry. For Amazon, it is a foolish plodding play of a monopolist which plainly has lost sight of the fact that treating suppliers with disdain will create a backlash. Finally expect higher book prices too!
How Foolish We Were ...and Will be Once Again!
March 26, 2008
A Nation of Enrons | www.fool.com
Ultimately all markets go in cycles. The concept that property, to name but one sector, would forever go up, was a delusion of the Florida land grab of the 1920s and umpteen other times in history, not just the very recent past... Sadly in the modern age, the analysis remains that even with new-fangled tools to lose money by, the old fashioned methods of over-leverage and foolishly bullish beliefs are working just fine too.
Still Room for (ATM) Cash Flow Buyers
March 17, 2008
ATMs and a changing biz model | www.greensheet.com
Right if you seek only Equity Returns from an ATM Portfolio, but timing is ripe for Fixed Income investors. All the warnings and diligence advice is right on the button, but if you are looking to replace minimal returns on a portion of your fixed income portfolio, a properly structured ATM buy can produce premium returns. Buying ATM's and their cash flow, just like all business transactions, reveal their true worth on the buy side of the transaction. A properly structured set of purchase terms manages and boxes the risks and ensures a proper return. ATM's for fixed income investors may just be the right time in the right place.
March 11, 2008
Nymex stakes in other exchanges a factor in talks with CME | www.marketwatch.com
CME has run its slide rule across cash exchanges before but never taken the plunge to acquire one. Equally, it seeks to create partnerships where it can act as a predator and buy out the partner (see my previous analysis on the subject). Sooner or later CME will likely acquire beyond its traditional futures sectors and there is a wealth of deals out there... However, the key thing CME (and other predatory exchanges) need to do in the long term is to diversify beyond US dollar denominated markets.
March 10, 2008
Thomson-Reuters Merger Approved | money.cnn.com
The ability of the new merged management team to keep clients happy when products are merged is going to be a key issue in making this merger work. Staff are understandably nervous about their prospects and the history of Reuters in recent years has included a great deal of almost ongoing upheaval.
February 8, 2008
Nymex Earnings Rise on Fee Growth | biz.yahoo.com
Another exchange, another strong processing result...Just imagine what would hapen if they could close the bottleneck of the floor!
February 8, 2008
Europe banks to launch derivatives platform | www.ft.com
The political battle between the big banks and exchanges is becoming more explosive than ever.
CME Uses the Predator Partnership - Again
January 30, 2008
CME-Nymex: Good Deal? | online.wsj.com
CME deal value is related not just to exchange growth but also the state of commodity prices. Nevertheless, CME is best placed to acquire CME for approximately 40 key reasons
Sovereign and financial crises: Europe and the U.S.
January 18, 2012
How much longer can the Japanese Yen be a "haven currency"?
December 13, 2011
Not all bank tech vendors are equal
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Eksportfinans downgrade surprises investors
December 5, 2011
Why wasn't Italy's situation spotted earlier? And what's next?
November 22, 2011