GLG News by Land Banking Experts (US)

Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions

MORE THAN A LIFE JACKET

May 11, 2009

Analysis of:Big Project in Las Vegas Secures Pact to Survive | online.wsj.com

MGM Mirage's CityCenter, the $9.4 billion-plus resort under construction in Las Vegas, won a crucial victory last week when its lenders and owners struck a deal that guarantees the project will be finished.  With unemployment topping 10.4% in Las Vegas -- and headed higher in the short term -- this project offers three critical positive elements to the Las Vegas economy in the second half of this year.       (1)  It provides vital new employment; (2)       (2) It provides continued employment for those in construction and administration; and (3)       (3) It offers new reasons for visitation to Las Vegas.  In short, the completion of CityCenter is not a life jacket for the Las Vegas economy.  It may be a full fledged lifeboat enabling an escape from a sinking economy. Let me amplify these thoughts:

Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions

STOP PICKING ON LAS VEGAS

April 21, 2009

Analysis of:US Foreclosure Filings Jump as Moratoriums End | www.cnbc.com

    March came in like a lion and left Las Vegas residential real estate roaring.     There was powerful improvement in sales and inventory figures while prices remained relatively stable.  It may very well be that in the future, many will regard March as the bottom of the current downturn in Las Vegas.    I  have said repeatedly that the Las Vegas residential real estate bottom would begin in that month in which the number of foreclosure sales exceeded the number created. That happened in March - and it happened big.     For the second consecutive month, the number of ACTUAL foreclosures fell.  Las Vegas experienced 1,846 actual foreclosures in the month of March, down almost 400 from February.  The number of foreclosures sold, however, was 2,393.  In other words, there was 35% more sales of foreclosures than foreclosures created!

Jim BelfiorePresidentBelfiore Real Estate Consulting

Good News, Bad Information

April 13, 2009

Analysis of:Valley homeowners starting to see mortgage relief from plan | www.azcentral.com

The industry is searching for some glimmer of hope, some good news; unfortunately, this week it came from a misinformed journalist who poorly researched a story that ended up on the front page of the Phoenix Metro Area's main daily newspaper.

David GreenPrincipalTrinity Development Group

In Tampa: Lot Owners Woo Builders With Offer of Free Lots

April 1, 2009

Analysis of:Building in a bear market | money.cnn.com

This article is spot on.  From an insider's perspective I could not agree more with the author.  The Tampa residential market is decimated and it takes wild creativity to spur building activity.

Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions

THIS BEAR MAY BE GROWING HORNS ...

March 24, 2009

Analysis of:Building in a bear market | money.cnn.com

  After citing a 10-month supply of existing homes in February, and home sales at their lowest level in many years, this article asks the intriguing question: “Why are homes being built at all?”  It states with some certainty that there is no recovery in the near future.   But, is there a recovery on the horizon?  Is this Bear growing horns?  The key problem with this article is the statistics used are lagging indicators.  

Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions

HOUSING RESCUE SMALL PROBLEM: It won't work ...

February 24, 2009

Analysis of:Housing Plan: Five Things Investors Need to Know | www.cnbc.com

    There's only one small problem with the housing rescue bill: It won't work for the people who need it most.        

Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions

LAS VEGAS: January housing data indicates no bottom

February 17, 2009

Analysis of:FORECLOSURES IN LAS VEGAS DROP IN JANUARY | www.lvrj.com

    Las Vegas real estate stumbled to the worst January in modern times.     Sales and pricing fell.  The number of foreclosures rose.  Year over year existing home sales rose sharply, but were still below December's total.     The only ray of sunlight in a cloudy sky appears to be declining inventory totals.    

Steve BottfeldPrincipalMarketing Solutions

THE PRESENT IS NOT THE FUTURE

February 9, 2009

Analysis of:Home prices fall at record pace | money.cnn.com

    There is a simple truth: Developers won't build homes to sell at prices lower than the cost of construction.     What this article failed to show us is WHY new home prices are falling.     The article failed to note, for example, that there is now a far smaller inventory of new homes than there were last year.     It did not mention the impact of foreclosures on the new home market.  It did not mention that foreclosures are being sold for LESS than the cost of replacement.     The bald facts are not enough for an article like this.  And, the article did not paint the whole picture.     

David GreenPrincipalTrinity Development Group

Someone Play A Dirge For Corus

February 5, 2009

Analysis of:Condo King Corus Weights Its Options | online.wsj.com

This article clearly demonstrates the dire straits Corus Bank is facing as it deals with a soaring number of problem loans and an REO department full of repossessed condos.  The facts presented in this article are more than enough to make most people doubt Corus' ability to continue as a going concern.  Three factors are pressuring the bank heavily: a loan portfolio comprised almost exclusively of condo construction loans of which more than 1/3 are now non-performing, Treasury’s rejection of the banks application for TARP funding, and the distinct possibility the bank will face heightened capital requirements.

David GreenPrincipalTrinity Development Group

More Pain Ahead for Florida and New York - Most Others are Out of the Woods

February 3, 2009

Analysis of:Home prices fall at record pace | money.cnn.com

It is frightening to continually be bombarded with news of falling home prices and falling values for just about every other asset class known to man.  Many articles focus only on the price declines of homes without any consideration for the reasons why values are declining so much or when values will stabilize.  An analysis of trends and history can provide some insight into this situation.  Most people can handle bad news it is the uncertainty that is hard to deal with.  A look at home price trends shows that the bleeding should stop in 2009.

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