The short trerm outlook for Taiwan Semi is not good, but the long term looks good.
January 7, 2009
Taiwan Semi Shares Fall on Only ‘Sell’ Recommendation | www.bloomberg.com
Selling Taiwan Semi now would seem to be a bad bet because this might be close to the bottom of the cycle for semi stocks, and particularly for Taiwan Semi, because the outsourcing model is winning.It is predicted that those companies outsourcing their manufacturing are better off now without large, fixed costs. Most analysts argue that the semi market will start to go up by June, and it should go up fast due to lack of a large inventory overhang at customers and distributors. As the feature sizes of semis go below 45nm Taiwan Semi will be in a strong position as their competitors and semi manufacturers slow down capital spending. Apart from normal replacement cycles there is no compelling upgrades to the computer business market. But the emerging Chinese standards and overall demand for mobil phones and small form factor computers should drive the market in 2009.
New opportuniyies open for linear and mixed signal companies due to switch to wireless phones.
December 20, 2008
Fitch: Poor Economy May Boost Pace Of Switch To Wireless | money.cnn.com
People are switching to wireless from land lines in droves, saving money in a bad economy. There are places where that is difficult to do, such as alarm systems in first and second homes. Freeze Alarm is a product made to warn a homeowner especially in second homes that the furnace is not heating the house properly. It uses the land line connection. The same system is used for home security. The companies that make semiconductor temperature sensors such as National, Maxim,, and Linear Tech can add a second chip or stage for an RF transmitter or a dedicated cell phone to make a call to the homeowner thus eliminating the need for a land line. Frozen pipes are the second leading cause of home damage and rising fast due to unusual weather patterns. Electonic sensors and control mechanisms such as Freeze Valves can cut this damage significantly.
Communicate, Add Value, and Improve Service
December 16, 2008
More restaurants serve up promotions for these lean times | www.orlandosentinel.com
As traffic slows down in Q1 due to the economy, 2009 diets, and increased competition, restaurants have to execute three basic marketing tactics. First they have to build up a database of email addresses and then communicate and keep their brand in the guests face twice a month via email blasts, offers, and specials. A birthday club is the most efficient method of gleaning email addresses. Second, owners should be adding value rather than just discounting. Every guest should receive a bounce back certificate with their check encouraging a quick return visit for a free bottle of wine, appetizer, dessert, or family special. And finally, operators should improve their customer service by 50% through training, suggestive selling, and incentives. Today's consumers want great service first and will return only if the service, price/value, and experience are outstanding. It is far easier and more efficient to get an existing guest to return than it is to generate a new customer visit.
The timing is good for Xilinx to add Samsung as its 40nm foundry, but there are risks.
December 8, 2008
Samsung foundry poaches Xilinx 40-nm business, says report | www.eetimes.com
Xilinx can quicken its entry into 40nm FPGA production using Samsung, but risks losing the capacity if and when Samsung gets busier. Obviously, Samsung would rather sell its own branded products as the margin is higher. The risks for Xilinx are mitigated because of the similar foundries offered by IBM and Chartered where Xilinx can move if bumped by Samsung. A significant risk occurs if Xilinx is repaced at UMC by a FPGA start up- this would set up a time line where as business gets better and Samsung needs the 40nm capacity for its own products Xilinx is forced to go to IBM or Chartered because it cant go back to UMC. The timing is good for Xilinx because it should be a long while for business to get better for Samsung, and it gets Xilinx into 40nm process now.
How's Your 2009 Marketing Plan?
October 29, 2008
Stock market takes dip out of dining | www.freerepublic.com
Hospitality marketing is changing. How's your 2009 Marketing Plan? Database marketing, special events, bouncebacks, suggestive selling, and positively outrageous service should all be a part of your new marketing. The most efficient and personal strategy to communicate with your customers is with an email blast to your database every two weeks. Start a birthday club as a tactic to glean email addresses and watch your database grow, as well as birthday dinners. Hold weeknight specials for several months and watch weekday business grow. Encourage lunch and dinner guests to return quicker than usual with bounceback certificates given with every check. Train your staff to increase their suggestive selling skill sets and reward them with incentives. This practice can increase check sizes by 15% or more. Increase your levels of customer service, using guest names, wowing them with added service, and higher levels of customer satisfaction will result. Develop a plan today for tomorrow.
The potential is great, but the problems waiting to be overcome may be greater.
October 2, 2008
New technology to make smaller, smarter, faster computer chips | www.business-standard.com
There periodically appears seeming breakthroughs in process that could change the fundamental way semiconductors are made or perform. This new technique could be very significant because of its impact on speed and power Ther have been other "breakthroughs" like GaAs and SOS substrates that have limited success due to cost, performance, or other unforseen problems. The good news is this would use the same existing factories with a change in lithographic process. What is not yet known is performance over temperature, unknown quantum effects, potential frequency resonance, etc. The new techniques major impact would be on niche semi companies nibbling on the speed/power edge using exotic processes, and on end use devices by reducing power and increasing processing power- extending Moore's Law.
Market Locally with Specials for Target Guests
June 9, 2008
Hotel CEOs Lament Softening Demand, Foresee Some Discounting | www.btnmag.com
As consumers cut travel and look locally for leisure pursuits, the hospitality industry has to adjust its marketing and offer specials for more local targeted audiences. With increasing capacities for both hotel rooms and food and beverage establishments, room nights and dining room tables can be filled with consumers looking for a family dining deal, a romantic night away from the kids, and a fun summer slumber party for the kids. Offer an online birthday, anniversary, or branded club to glean email addresses to build a local database. Use this database to efficiently communicate weekly dining specials like burger nights, family pasta, fish and chips, or pizza nights. Market romantic room/dinner packages to local couples in need of quality time, in a romantic setting, without breaking the budget. Promote a weekend slumber party packages for families with young teens who love pizza, movies, and pool time. All these experiences save time, gas, and money. LOOK LOCAL!
National cannot gain significant market share with its current sales approach.
April 11, 2008
Earnings Preview: National Semiconductor | seekingalpha.com
There are several sales team approaches by the companies in the analog IC business-some are more succesful than others. You have to balance cost of sales with a successful sales effort. National has too few "feet on the street" to compete for new designs with Analog Devices, On, Intersil, TI, ST Micro and others.
The worst may be just beginning.
January 28, 2008
AMD: Is The Worst Over? | seekingalpha.com
Intel is much stronger in the processing side and as geometries shrink and the price of fabs skyrocket the larger company has a distinct edge going forward. Companies that make computers want a strong AMD to balance Intel's demands and break their almost sole source price stance. AMD has to develop a much stronger graphics chip design as a differentiator to capture market share-much as S-3 did in the nineties. AMD also has the option of combining a less powerful 86 core with the graphic chip and communication chips to position itself between the Intel/ARM battle for non desktop/laptop applications. AMD's sales force has broader coverage in non computer companies and is mostly rep based giving it variable cost-of-sales benefits in probably a down market in 2008.
Good AMD Move to Add Differentiation
January 22, 2007
WSJ: AMD to Buy ATI; Grasp for an Edge Over Intel | online.wsj.com
AMD adds the potential to gobble up more of the PC silicon
The graphics chip is a big differentiator in the consumer PC and game market
Computer companies will look at whole package offering of AMD vs Intel
February 7, 2012
SOPA and the wisdom of Yogi Berra
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Larger wafers present a growth opportunity for LEDs
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Smartphones threaten digital camera industry
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Google music launches: The end of the end for the music industry
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