GLG News by Metallurgical Coal Experts

Thomas ShewskiOwnerHigh Energy Services

With Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) and Low Natural Gas Prices, Something Has to Give to Keep Coal Competitive for Generation in Some Instances

January 14, 2009

Analysis of:In Reversal, Court Allows a Bush Plan on Pollution | www.nytimes.com

    CAIR require deeper cuts in NOx emissions starting in 2009 and SO2 emissions starting in 2010 in the Eastern US.  This is through a cap and trade program with the usage of limited emissions allowances for both NOx and SO2 emissions.     CAIR was originally thrown out by the Courts on July 11, 2008 and reinstated on December 23, 2008.     CAIR requires annual NOx allowances starting in 2009 for the affected Eastern states plants.  Previously, certain Eastern states only had seasonal NOx allowance requirements.  Now most of these Eastern states plants will be required to have annual NOx allowances for 12 months of the year and seasonal NOx allowances for 5 months of the year (May 1 to September 30).     CAIR also requires starting in 2010 affected Eastern states plants to surrender 2 SO2 allowances for each ton of SO2 emissions.  This surrender rate changes to 2.86 starting in 2015.  Pre-2010 banked SO2 allowances retain their surrender rate for 2010 and beyond compliance.

Sam TimpanoPresidentSam Timpano & Associates

Long term fundamentals favor oil and gold price rises

January 7, 2009

Analysis of:Oil, gold tumble but base metals buck trend | www.guardian.co.uk

Crude may not see the highs of last year but will trade higher as 2009 ages and gold could test the highs as a result of actions being taken to deal with the financial crisis in America and the stimulus plans to restart the economy. While demand has fallen due to the current global economic crisis, the fundamentals for crude favor price increase rather than much lower pricing. Some of the same fundamentals that favor a price increase for crude will also have a similar effect on the price of gold.

Sam TimpanoPresidentSam Timpano & Associates

Gaza is only a factor in the oil supply equation if there is a broadening or escalation to the actions.

January 7, 2009

Analysis of:Oil Prices Rocket Following Gaza Attacks | www.oilvoice.com

Neither Gaza nor Israel have much to do with actual oil supplies or deliveries. The role of each is more in geopolitical terms of the Region and depending upon who gets involved and in how that involvement is done.

Craig MarstonManaging DirectorCEM Marine

Expect Dry Bulk Shipping Rate Recovery During 1Q09, Then Decline By 3Q09

January 5, 2009

Analysis of:Shipping rates expected to stay 'very low' | www.gulfnews.com

Fearnley Fonds, as reported by Bloomberg expects dry bulk shipping rates to be "very low" in 1Q09.  I agree that rates will be very low compared with the record highs seen in the last two years, but I expect significant recovery from the lows seen in 3Q08.

Craig MarstonManaging DirectorCEM Marine

Outlook For Shipbuilding Not Too Good

January 5, 2009

Analysis of:JAPAN SHIP ORDERS COLLAPSE | www.shippingdigest.com

The Shipping Digest reported that new orders for export ships in Japan Shipyards was down 80% yoy in November.  These numbers are a very good proxy for other major shipbuilding nations, such as Korea and China.

Bradford MillsChief Executive OfficerMANDALAY RESOURCES CORPORATION

The Platinum Supply is set to decline in 2009 - Will it be enough to rebalance supply?

January 5, 2009

Analysis of:Russia Norilsk to cut nickel, palladium output | www.reuters.com

The demand for Platinum has fallen sharply in the last several months and with it the prices of platinum, palladium and Rhodium. In the face of these sharp price falls, producers are delaying capital spending, cutting projects and  closing marginal mines. To date these supply cuts amount to some 400,000 ounce of annual Platinum production in 2009 or some 5-6%  of annual supply. Will these cuts be enough to rebalance supply/demand fundamentals in 2009?

Craig MarstonManaging DirectorCEM Marine

Capesize Market Not A Recovery, But A Correction

December 20, 2008

Analysis of:Baltic Capesize Index Surges: A Step Towards Industrial Recovery? | seekingalpha.com

The recent upwards movement in the BCI is more a reflection of the market conditions that have persisted for the last two months and an upwards correction to reflect actual fundamentals.

Craig MarstonManaging DirectorCEM Marine

Maritime Lawyers Looking At An Excellent Market

December 19, 2008

Analysis of:Angelicoussis sues Fortescue for $129m | www.lloydslist.com

The $129M single lawsuit against Fortescue is the tip of the iceberg.  Many of the new entrants drawn into shipping during the bull market are going to get an unpleasant education in the vagaries of maritime law.

Craig MarstonManaging DirectorCEM Marine

Mixed Reviews For OceanFreight

December 18, 2008

Analysis of:OceanFreight cut | www.tradewinds.no

OceanFreight certainly won't be the last company to suspend dividend payments, and it was a prudent move, but renegotiating charters was a poor decision.

Craig MarstonManaging DirectorCEM Marine

Shipping Prospects Are Mixed

December 15, 2008

Analysis of:UPDATE 1-China Merchants sees slowing growth, expansion | www.reuters.com

Near term prospects for container shipping are grim.

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