Time duration of commodity down cycle will determine junior's fate.
November 10, 2008
"Darwinian culling" in junior mining sector | network.nationalpost.com
The duration of the cycle will determine the fate of most juniors. Sector differences matter - Base Metals (Cu, Ni, Zn) look particularly week and will get weeker. PGM's and U are at the bottom and should start to trend up. Gold looks reasonable and gold juniors should find financing. I expect a early 1970's style 2 year peak to peak cycle not a 1980's 5 year cycle. If the down cycle lasts longer than 18 months expect junior failures to accelerate. Private equity is starting to play a role, expect it to prop up better companies (Pallinghurst Resource - GEM.L)
November 4, 2008
CP Rail Expects DM&E to Earn More than Forecast | www.reuters.com
The Dakota Minnesota & Eastern (DM&E) Railroad was recently acquired by the Canadian Pacific (CP) Railway. The DM&E has for years been proposing an extension to the Wyoming Powder River Basin coal reserves. This project, if commenced, would upgrade an existing 600 miles of track and provide for 260 miles of new track expansion into the coal fields of the PRB. When the DM&E was a stand-alone Class II Railroad, it applied to the Federal Railroad Administration for Government-backed loan guarantees for this potential project. The submissions and comments related to this FRA filing tell of the potential affects on the DM&E, Union Pacific (UP), and BNSF.
Coal Rail Transportation Volume and Rate Increases Positive for the Railroads
October 20, 2008
Seminole Files Rail Complaint to Protect Its Members | www.marketwatch.com
The year-to-date and outlook for many of the items transported by the U.S. railroads are down, coal transportation has been positive. The discussions that follows list some of the positives for the railroads.
Labor, Permitting, Geology, and Inspections Hindering Coal Production, Adding to Costs
October 20, 2008
Interested In Workin' In A Coal Mine? | www.forbes.com
Coal companies have issued force majeure declarations to customers due to various production-related issues. These are discussed in the section below.
Not so fast either...outsourcing continues
October 8, 2008
Is Outsourcing to China Over? | www.inc.com
The writer of the article is seemingly unware of the trends that are taking place in outsourcing to low cost producing countries, including China and India and has not been following the apparent trends that are shifting the landscape not only for large manufacturing companies but even the mid sized and the smaller , these do not only include metal bending but also engineering brains beyond IT.
Refund on Coal Excise Tax Paid on Exports Contained in Emergency Stabilization Act
October 8, 2008
Coal Gets Help in Financial Bailout | wvgazette.com
As the referenced article states, there are many benefits in the Emergency Stabilization Act for the coal industry. One not discussed is the refund of the coal excise tax. The commentary section discusses this.
Refined Coal – Things to Consider as a Result of Changes to Tax Credit Qualification
October 7, 2008
Congress Extends Refined Coal Tax Credit | www.marketwatch.com
The Emergency Stabilization Act signed into law on October 3, 2008 includes an extension of tax credits for renewable energy and refined coal. The discussion that follows includes items to consider regarding the refined coal tax credit.
Activated Carbon for Mercury Control – Potential Demand
September 22, 2008
ADES: Multi-Year Supply Contract with Luminant for Activated Carbon | www.tradingmarkets.com
The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled on February 8, 2009 in favor of the plaintiffs that coal plants could not be removed from the list of mercury sources subject to a Maximum Available Control Technology (MACT) standard and the subsequent movements to require EPA to set a mercury MACT standard for coal-fired power plants provides an opportunity in the mercury control space, including activated carbon.
September 22, 2008
UBS Cuts FreightCar America to ‘Sell’ on Price | www.forbes.com
The commentary section discusses the current market and outlook for coal railcars
Natural Gas vs. Coal Generating Economics
September 22, 2008
NYMEX Natural Gas Rises with Crude, Damage Reports | www.forbes.com
The fuel-switching from coal to natural gas affects the demand and price for each commodity. The commentary below discusses what issues are part of the analysis of a utility or merchant fuel buyer on whether to switch fuel sources to fuel power plants.
Chesapeake Energy bites the natural gas bullet
January 25, 2012
Flurry of newbuild drilling rig deliveries in 2012 may dampen rig rates
January 20, 2012
Talisman joins the ranks of cautious E&P companies
January 12, 2012
Early signs of caution begin to cloud frontier exploration and production
January 4, 2012
It's too early in the game to write off Shtokman
December 8, 2011