GLG News by Mining Experts
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Jack LiftonCo-founder and DirectorTechnology Metals Research, LLC
December 8, 2008
Revolutionary Wheel for Electric Cars Puts Guts Inside Wheel | gas2.org
One powered wheel and a battery of any type can make a motorbike, two powered wheels and a battery of any type can make a powered freight or passenger carrying cart, three or more powered wheels and a battery of any type can make a car, 8, or more, can make a truck, and with a third rail or an overhead wire connection 8 or more can make a bus, passenger carrying railcar, freight carrying railcar, subway car, etc. The size of the wheel and of its contained motors can be increased to make long haul freight or passenger carrying vehicles.
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Bradford MillsChief Executive OfficerMANDALAY RESOURCES CORPORATION
Metal prices have more to fall before the correction is over
December 5, 2008
Metal prices fall further than during Great Depression | www.telegraph.co.uk
Despite the 50%+ falls in the prices of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, Pgms, and Aluminium since early 2008, most metal prices are only just now reaching the average cash cost of industry production. After the 9/11 event, demand destruction in the Western Economies was some 10% within 2 months and commodity prices fell, in most cases, below 90% of all producers cash costs. Since the third quarter of this year estimates of demand destruction are between 15-30% in the Western Economies. Supply in most cases has not yet adjusted anywhere near enough to rebalance this reduced demand. Expect inventories of raw metals to rise rapidly in the first half of 2009 and prices to fall another 25-50% forcing producers to take more decisive action to reduce supply. Comparisons with the Great Depression make interesting headlines but are highly misleading.
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Bradford MillsChief Executive OfficerMANDALAY RESOURCES CORPORATION
BHP/RIO Deal Collapse Should Be No Surprise.
December 1, 2008
ASIA-Death of a Megadeal: BHP Ends Its Pursuit of Rio | online.wsj.com
The BHP/Rio deal was always a long shot. Antitrust issues were formidable and the success of the deal was always going to be hugely dependant of regulator demanded asset sales requirements. Given the collapse in asset values in the last three months, any value for synergies would have been overwhelmed by the prospect of low realizations on assets sales over the next two years. Other factors were undoubtedly the proposed list of asset sales from the EU which apparently had a lot more Iron ore on it that BHP hoped. Finally, Rio's large debt and unfunded pension position look decidedly more risky in the current commodity price environment. The bottom line is that a difficult deal in good times became impossible in difficult times and BHPB rightly pulled the plug. Investors should be concerned that BHP ever pursued this as a hostile transaction given the enormous complexity and regulatory risks of the proposed transaction.
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Bradford MillsChief Executive OfficerMANDALAY RESOURCES CORPORATION
Consolidation will Shorten Industry Price Cycle in Mining.
November 18, 2008
The recent announcement that FCX is significantly reducing molybdenum production is a rapid response to the recent price declines in Mo. This indicates that things are very different in the mining world than in past cycles. Historically companies have held on to production in down cycles for long periods with the hope that other producers would curtail production first. This became a war of attrition and often prolonged down cycles as large inventories of metals were built up that had to be worked off before prices responded. Consolidation in the mining industry has changed the production response behavior significantly with major producers rapidly curtailing production to rebalance supply and demand before massive inventories build up. In addition to FCX's move, Xstrata (XTA.L) and Norilsk (OTC:NILSY) have curtailed nickel production. Rio Tinto (RIO.L) and Fortescue Metals (ASX:FMG) have announced iron ore curtailments. Expect copper cuts soon.
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Bradford MillsChief Executive OfficerMANDALAY RESOURCES CORPORATION
Time duration of commodity down cycle will determine junior's fate.
November 10, 2008
"Darwinian culling" in junior mining sector | network.nationalpost.com
The duration of the cycle will determine the fate of most juniors. Sector differences matter - Base Metals (Cu, Ni, Zn) look particularly week and will get weeker. PGM's and U are at the bottom and should start to trend up. Gold looks reasonable and gold juniors should find financing. I expect a early 1970's style 2 year peak to peak cycle not a 1980's 5 year cycle. If the down cycle lasts longer than 18 months expect junior failures to accelerate. Private equity is starting to play a role, expect it to prop up better companies (Pallinghurst Resource - GEM.L)
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Jack LiftonCo-founder and DirectorTechnology Metals Research, LLC
November 10, 2008
Automakers struggle to survive past mistakes | www.forbes.com
Three years ago a former Chairman of an American OEM automotive company told me that the problem with GM, Ford, and Chrysler was that they all believed originally that the Japanese would never learn how to make cars that Americans would buy, and, then, after that turned out to be false they simply decided that there was nothing to be learned from the Japanese who must have been successful, they thought, simply by emulating them. These men, and they were and are all men, are myopic and incompetent. It is their fault as much as the fault of the monopolistic union that the domestic American OEM car companies and their supply base have failed. Let's please get rid of them immediately.
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Jack LiftonCo-founder and DirectorTechnology Metals Research, LLC
November 10, 2008
Auto-Industry Crisis Tests Obama | online.wsj.com
The backbone of American manufacturing is made up of profitable, high-productivity companies in a variety of industries, which create or find a way to manufacture the latest and most relevant technologies for our health, safety, workplace productivity, or leisure. The backbone consists also of those companies whose workers income is directly related to their productivity and directly related to their employer's ability to mass produce innovative and important products. The backbone consists only of those companies that can give their workers benefits such as health care and pensions while the employer still makes a profit. Those companies that create wealth are the backbone of American industry not those that destroy wealth.
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Jack LiftonCo-founder and DirectorTechnology Metals Research, LLC
November 10, 2008
Emanuel Urges Aid for Auto Industry | www.nytimes.com
Short term planning, or no planning at all, got the American owned and operated OEM Automotive industry into the predicament it is in today. Not only are the current managers of these companies not 'car-guys' they are also not manufacturing engineering or quality management 'guys.' You cannot decide to change over a vehicle line, and then change it again during the changeover, without risking total failure of both the car and its maker Designs need to be finalized, technologies need to be chosen, and supply contracts need to be put in final form years before 'new' cars can hit the road. The GM, Chrysler, and Ford managers have been playing politics for so long that they can no longer build cars without political content that may be impossible using technologies that are unproven and even untested. This is politically motivated BS of the type that drives the 'promise' to achieve lofty goals simply by spending huge amounts of public money with no real plan!
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Jack LiftonCo-founder and DirectorTechnology Metals Research, LLC
November 7, 2008
Automakers and Union Seek Help From Pelosi | www.nytimes.com
It is incredible that anyone would consider financing the further operations of the American OEM automotive industry without insisting first that its current management be replaced as a precondition. The enabling legislation creating the facility to lend taxpayer originated funds include the following regulations that the Department of Energy is to follow: "before it can lend money, the Energy Department must conclude that the borrower has assets that exceed its liabilities, and is likely to be able to repay the principal and interest."
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Jack LiftonCo-founder and DirectorTechnology Metals Research, LLC
November 6, 2008
Aboriginal chiefs pitch business deals to China | www.canada.com
The North American civil rights movement has assured native Americans of their property rights and their sovereignty over the natural resources on their lands. American environmentalism has at the same time made sure that every conceivable roadblock is put in place to prevent the development of those natural resources. Canadian native Americans have now decided to stop going hat in hand to Ottawa to beg for development and are asking Chinese investors to build roads and powerplants on their land and to be paid from the harvest of the wood on their lands and the metals and minerals to be found there. Native Americans have been bought off with casino licenses that get them roads only to the door of the casino. How long will it take them to emulate their Canadian relatives?
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