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Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Truck / Trailer “Requests For Financing” Offers Insights Into Higher Order Rates

December 9, 2010

Analysis of:Strong Class 8 orders bode well for trucking overall | fleetowner.com

The referenced article by Sean Kilcarr in Fleet Owner from earlier this week gives a good overview about the current increase in truck orders from the seasonal standpoint. We wrote a couple weeks ago (link) about financiers temporarily relaxing qualification standards to refill their portfolios with good credits - in order to help make their numbers look better. Here are some other issues to think about.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

SWFT IPO Terms Released - With Even Better Potential Today Than Before

December 1, 2010

Analysis of:Swift Announces $942.6 Million IPO | www.truckinginfo.com

Swift Transportation’s IPO registration announced in July had the terms released yesterday. The 67.3MM shares at the expected $13-$15 will result in a $943MM raise - and a market value of $1.8B. Current revenue is estimated to be almost $2.2B with its 12,000+ company-owned trucks and almost 4,000 independent contractors. This looks good in spite of the reported loss last year…

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Why Are New Trucks Sales Up? A Big Reason Is…

November 21, 2010

Financing availability is the key to ultimately swinging demand - and some think we are seeing a “clean-up the portfolio” bubble for better credits on the part of financiers. We agree and offer the following.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

JBS Transportation EOBR Order Is An Indicator Of Several Issues

November 9, 2010

Analysis of:FMCSA Orders JBS Carriers to Install Electronic On-Board Recorders on its Entire Fleet of Commercial Trucks for Violating Hours-of-Service and Other Federal Safety Regulations | www.fmcsa.dot.gov

The U.S. Department of Transportation's Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) ruling that JBS Transportation of Greeley, Colorado must install Electronic On-Board Recorders (EOBR’s) is one of the first with a larger carrier. It offers insight into some of the issues that need to be addressed in the supply chain.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Mexico Cross-Border Trucking - A Mexican Border Perspective

November 7, 2010

Analysis of:Mexican Officials Want U.S. Action on the Cross-border Trucking Dispute | www.truckinginfo.com

The Journal of Commerce recently quoted Luis Paz Vega who is in leadership of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) office at the DC Mexican embassy - that redoing the Mexican Truck in the US “demonstration program” won’t work. They instead want us to adhere to NAFTA and open the border up. Here’s some thoughts...

Peter Shih-Hsin YingPresident Knight Investment Consulting

TSMC Should Separate LED R&D And Brand Name When Not To Provide Foundry Service

October 28, 2010

Analysis of:TSMC Invests In LED Manufacturing Line | www.ledsmagazine.com

1. It surprised everyone when TSMC spokesman saying that TSMC will develop and sell LEDs under ''TSMC brand'' and will not provide foundry services for LED makers. 2. Consequence of this approach could trigger patent war of LED process and product design, against TSMC as an IDM. 3. The flame of patent war could spread across to Non- LED related processing and products. 4. TSMC should separate the LED R&D and brand name when they are not prepare to provide foundry service.   

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Technical Thoughts About SCR v. EGR - From A “Field Engineering” Perspective

October 24, 2010

Selective Catalyst Reduction (SCR) and Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) issues are both hot these days where buyers are now voting with their purchase decisions. Truckers have to become more technically proficient - and fleet / field engineers are dealing daily with this new stuff. OEM’s have their sales pitches, but users are discussing it their own way. Investors and financiers benefit from the current dialogue, as we all are betting on the future.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Navistar September 2010 Class 8 Market-Share Drops - Big-Time

October 18, 2010

Analysis of:Class 8 Truck Sales Up For Month, YTD; Class 6 Sees Continued Surge | www.truckinginfo.com

Navistar Corporation’s US Class 8 deliveries are showing about a 10-point share drop per Wards Communication numbers - both YOY and mid-YTD. This is with US Class 8 truck sales hanging in there month-to-month and sales notably better than 2009.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

How Much Excess Capacity Is There Really In The LTL Sector? More Than You Think…

October 12, 2010

With Truckload (TL) carriers experiencing tightening capacity, we (and especially YRC Worldwide) are still hoping for the same in the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) sector. There are several factors that limit the real decrease in LTL capacity - and real increases in LTL profitability. They include capacity in-service: trucks, trailers and terminals sitting idle; Information Technology (IT) and other firms with “hybrid” trucking models.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

New Truck Sales Will Remain Slow With Used Doing Better - Here’s Some Why's

October 4, 2010

2010 is quickly passing with new truck sales falling short of most folks earlier predictions, but better than conservative estimates (like from us). Demand is being met by a strengthened used truck marketplace. There are several reasons including: freight demand, current fleet financials / utilization, regulations, higher new vehicle costs, tougher financing terms, available used trucks, newer truck engine product concerns, maintenance costs, truck drivers still available and other reasons.

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