GLG News by Rail Shipping Service Experts

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Fuel Mileage Rules For Big Trucks Is Another Thing On The Table

August 12, 2011

Analysis of:Early Reaction to Truck Efficiency Standards Mostly Positive | www.truckinginfo.com

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) issued the Notice Of Rule Making titled “Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles.” Calls about what we think are rolling in, so we’ll offer comments as it moves along. I sped-read the almost 1,000 pages. I know I am a glutton for punishment and in the minority, but the source article is right - we better read it first…

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

As current economic indicator, railroad loads do not show retreat

August 11, 2011

Analysis of:North American Rail Freight Carloads for Aug. 6 | www.bloomberg.com

The carloads and intermodal shipments for the week ending August 6th remained strong, ahead of last year and continuing to grow at a steady, albeit slow rate during 2011.  The weekly totals for the past few years shows the fall in railroad traffic beginning in September of 2008, coincident with the financial crisis but fully 10 months after the supposedly official beginning of the recession in December 0f 2007. During the first ten months of 2008, railroad traffic marginally exceeded that of 2007.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Drop in gasoline prices will boost railroad intermodal shipments

August 9, 2011

Analysis of:Big gas prices drop on the way | content.usatoday.com

Gasoline prices have been around $4/gallon only two times in recent years: during the summer of 2008 before the financial crash in the fall of that year, and during the second quarter of 2011, before the fears of a double dip recession put the stock market into a free fall. In the first instance, retail sales improved when the price of gasoline plummeted and the economy began to mend. The same type of recovery is expected to develop in the fall if gasoline prices get close to $3/gallon.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Roadrunner Transportation Systems Is One To Watch More Closely

August 8, 2011

Analysis of:Roadrunner Transportation Systems Reports 2011 Second Quarter Results | www.marketwire.com

Roadrunner Transportation Systems Inc. reported their 2nd Qtr. results where revenue was up over 30% to $208MM and operating income was up over 50% to $12.5MM. This is one we are watching because of the companies we liked - they are rolling up - leveraging solid and growing sectors.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Greenbrier will be running near capacity soon

August 5, 2011

Analysis of:Greenbrier Books Railcar Orders for $285 Million | www.joc.com

The fears that are gripping Wall Street have not been reflected in the reports of deliveries and new orders coming from the railcar builders. Business is booming and the backlogged orders are high enough to keep production increasing well into 2012. The Greenbrier Companies is battling Trinity Industries for the top spot in delivery totals and the recent orders may help it gain the lead if it can ramp up production fast enough before the end of the year.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Second Quarter Logistics Profits Still Positive

August 5, 2011

Second quarter truck, rail and logistics providers 2nd Quarter numbers are still positive with expected nuances with individual companies. Our new colleague in these missives - Mr. James Bisaha - is a welcome addition, to which I’ll make some comments about his noted companies and others.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railroad traffic is not signaling a double dip

August 4, 2011

Analysis of:Railroad Rates Top Inflation on Pricing Power: Freight Markets | www.bloomberg.com

With the collapse of the stock market after the news of the European banking problems and the initial assessments of the US debt deal, it is comforting to see carload railroad volumes remaining steady and intermodal traffic following its seasonal climb towards the holiday season. The slow growth in rail traffic matched the small increase in the GDP during the first half and the numbers since May indicate a repeat performance in the second half.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Yellow-Roadway (YRC) Going Back To Court On ABF “Labor / Cost” Suit

July 11, 2011

The Arkansas Best Corporation suit against YRC Worldwide Inc and the Teamsters is back on the docket. The suit is regarding concessions given to YRC by the Teamsters to keep YRC in business - and not to ABF under the same contract. ABF’s contention is that this is not fair contractually - and it costs them in their business. Regardless, this is not good news for YRC from several aspects.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Coal exports are helping, but railroad coal stats are dismal

July 11, 2011

Analysis of:US coal exports reach 19-year high, up 20 percent | www.topix.net

Last year, almost 82M tons of coal were exported (up 38% from 2009) but production totaled around 1.085B tons, up less than 1% from 2009. This year, the situation is much the same; coal exports were up 48% in the first quarter but production for the first half of 2011 was less than last year. Rail traffic was much the same. Without those exports, the traffic sector for the railroads would have been much worse.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Mexico Cross-Border Trucking Program Signed Into Reality - Without Fanfare

July 6, 2011

Analysis of:ALERT: U.S., Mexico sign cross-border trucking program | fleetowner.com

In a relatively low key visit this week in Mexico City, US Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood and his Mexican counterpart signed the cross-border trucking agreement allowing Mexican trucks to haul freight beyond the commercial zones in the US. What does it mean? Mostly it will eliminate Tariffs on Southbound goods that will help US exporters - and get rid of the NAFTA issue left from the Clinton administration. We won’t see many Mexican trucks plying the US highways – here are some reasons why.

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