GLG News by Rail Shipping Service Experts

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Big intermodal plans in West, but few results to date

June 29, 2011

Analysis of:Western rails get ready to redraw intermodal map | www.dcvelocity.com

The western rail carriers have benefitted more than their eastern counterparts from the boom in imports. They have provided land-bridges between West Coast ports and Midwestern cities for many years that were very difficult for trucking companies to match. Now BNSF and Union Pacific claim to be going after the domestic traffic in the West where trucking companies have traditionally enjoyed cost and service advantages. There’s been a lot of talk of success, but few real numbers to support their claims.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railroad traffic confirms economic slowdown

June 29, 2011

Analysis of:Rail Automobile Shipments Reach Two-Month High | www.joc.com

Notwithstanding the good news for some traffic segments, carloads are down for more than a few railroad traffic groups and the overall assessment is that the first quarter totals may not be much higher than those of the first quarter. Rail traffic is a good barometer of the overall economy and the lackluster traffic in the second quarter is expected to be reflected in the GDP, which is not expected to increase much beyond the 1.9% recorded in the first quarter.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

We Need To Regulate (Throttle Down) The Regulators

June 21, 2011

The Information Age has led to tremendous productivity gains in every aspect of our lives - and in the logistics world. We have just seen the tip of the iceberg of what will come. In our and other's view, it seems to have also accelerated the Federal / State Government regulator's notion that - if it's interesting data, let's figure out how to put a rule, regulation and fee around it.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

US Truck Manufacturer "Orders Versus Deliveries" Numbers

May 30, 2011

North American (NA) Class 8 truck "orders" continue to show almost record numbers, which some don't think reconciles well with the real deliveries to come, the true freight market and today's choppy economic marketplace. History and surveys of dealers and financiers give some insight into the disconnect - meaning orders versus trucks being delivered to truckers. Truck sales people are looking for financing everywhere, which leads to some upstarts making promises - but that's another story...

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Prospects for railcar builders and railroad companies look very different

May 26, 2011

Analysis of:Rail Orders at 13-Year High Validate Buffett: Freight Markets | www.bloomberg.com

In the short term, i.e., this year and next, the fortunes of the two related industries could be very different, regardless of what happens in the overall economy. The rosy outlook painted by many “rail industry” analysts overlooks some basic differences between the two industries and misinterprets some of the recent developments to paint the future of both industries with the same brush.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Can Government Really Help With Shipper-Receiver Dock Delays?

May 20, 2011

Analysis of:OOIDA, ATA face off over dock delays | fleetowner.com

The American Trucking Associations (ATA) and Owner Operator Independent Driver Association (OOIDA) are both right in their opposing views regarding dock delays. The real issue in our mind comes from whether lawmakers can really address it - and get it fair and right. History says...

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Wabash National Trailer Sales Benefitting From A Variety Of Factors

May 8, 2011

Analysis of:Wabash Reports Increased Income On Major Trailer Shipment Increase | www.truckinginfo.com

Wabash National Corporation is seeing a significant growth in sales, due to a variety reasons - including increased numbers going to their well-financed fleet customer base. We expect to see continued good sales - so the next major job for them is to turn that into better profits..

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Unusual factors driving demand for new railcars

May 3, 2011

Analysis of:EPA: 37,000 new freight cars this year | www.railwayage.com

While railcar traffic is up, the volume is still below pre-recession levels and there are hundreds of thousands of surplus railcars of every type. So why are there so many orders for new cars and why are the builders' production rates expected to increase so rapidly? If deliveries fall between the 35,000 and 42,000 cars predicted by the forecasting community, the increase in production, as measured as a one year percentage gain over the bottom of the recession, will exceed any previous recovery.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

EIA sees only marginal increase in coal production in 2011

April 25, 2011

Analysis of:EIA Short term energy outlook | www.eia.doe.gov

Although they are forecasting that coal exports will rise to 88M tons this year, the EIA is estimating that overall production will only increase slightly over 2010 totals, which were only up 1% over those of 2009. Through mid-April, EIA weekly estimates show an 0.8% rise in production compared to the 2.9% increase in AAR reported railcar loads for the same period. EIA estimates are always revised and the AAR numbers may be a better indicator of the current status in the coal fields.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Trucker Hour-Of Service / EOBR Decisions Are Highly Political - Duh!

April 23, 2011

Analysis of:Former FMCSA Chief Speaks out on HOS, EOBRs | www.truckinginfo.com

The ongoing Hours-Of-Service (HOS) and Electronic On-Board Recorder (EOBR) issues are political and emotional. Deborah Lockridge in Heavy Duty Trucking well represents comments from former Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) head John Hill at the recent National Private Truck Council meeting. His hindsight vision is clear. The real benefactors are the IT players selling upgrades to their big clients and units / software to smaller carriers - e.g. Qualcomm, PeopleNet, Xata...

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