GLG News by Rail Shipping Service Experts

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Louisville Truck Show & More Recent Financing Discussions

April 17, 2011

The truck and trailer financing folks we work with (and talk to) are scratching their heads. The projected truck orders don't seem to match well with the numbers of those who are approved credits. The trailer market is different for other reasons, but is where there are some reasons to see continued strength. In the following, we offer an update.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Mid-America Truck Show Update - Optimism and Caution!

April 8, 2011

Analysis of:Fuel Economy Key Theme at Mid-America Show | www.truckinginfo.com

The accompanied article by Debra Lockridge of Heavy Duty Trucking magazine gives a good overview of the big industry suppliers' theme last week at the biggest truck show in the world - the Louisville Truck Show (Mid-American Truck Show / MATS). While that theme was fuel mileage on new products, there were other as (or more) important discussions on-the-floor that had different priorities - including new Information Technology issues and current engine performance...

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Rail traffic continues to point to a strengthening economy

April 8, 2011

Analysis of:Rail Carload Volume Hits Highest Level Since Late '08 | www.joc.com

Rail traffic is like the canary in the coal mine for the economy: it sings when times are good and doesn’t when they’re not. Despite of the troubles in the Arab World, the catastrophe in Japan, and the budget problems facing lawmakers, the canary is singing. Rail carload traffic is solidly above 2010 levels and climbing toward the pre-recession levels of early 2008 and intermodal traffic has already slipped past pre-recession levels and could set a new benchmark by the end of the year.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Greenbrier benefits from change in intermodal logistics

March 18, 2011

Analysis of:Greenbrier Nabs Orders for 4,200 Railcars | www.joc.com

The recent spate of orders for intermodal railcars seems to defy logic when one counts the thousands of relatively new intermodal cars in storage. However, there have been a few operational changes in the intermodal sector which are driving the need for intermodal cars designed to carry 53’ (domestic) containers. All of the intermodal cars in storage have 40’ wells and are best suited for the international containers.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Mexico Cross-Border Trucking Program - Update From The Border (EOBR Included)

March 16, 2011

Analysis of:Ferro Explains FMCSA Approach to Mexican EOBR Decision | www.truckinginfo.com

The Mexico Cross-Border trucking problem resolution is seen by most involved in it as positive, but it's adoption will be slow for many reasons. FMCSA's discussion of such at the Truckload Carrier Association meeting this week highlighted the Electronic On-Board Recorder (EOBR) issue - meaning why we are buying EOBR's for Mexican Carriers. There are other more important considerations.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

GATX and Trinity Industries make up

March 15, 2011

Analysis of:GATX to buy 12.5K railcars from Trinity over 5 yrs | www.whbf.com

Four years ago, Trinity Industries was so aggressive in the leasing business that GATX and other major railcar leasing companies were grumbling that they might not buy cars from them anymore. Time and low prices have always smoothed ruffled feathers and that is what seems to have apparently happened just now. GATX has purchased large quantities of railcar in the past from Trinity and their recent order signals both a renewed confidence in the market and a close relationship to a major builder.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Trailer & Truck Underride Issues Are Not Simple - But Expensive & An Opportunity

March 5, 2011

Analysis of:Insurance Institute Wants Underride Guard Improvements | www.truckinginfo.com

Cars underriding BIG trucks and trailers rear-end and sides have been going on for decades. I offer as a historian that there have been many improvements in minimizing the effects of such, but we keep changing other things that increases the risk. Could higher Gross Weight Combination help here? We offer that it would...

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

YRCW Numbers Follow LTL Market - Yet Dependent On Economic Recovery & Oil Price

March 2, 2011

Analysis of:YRC Reaches Tentative Agreement on Debt Restructuring | www.truckinginfo.com

YRC Worldwide announced they were offering another debt for stock deal to keep things going. Some folks calculate we still have excess capacity in the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) sector, so what does this mean for YRC's profit potential? Then there is the oil price impact on the consumer, trucking rates and flowing fuel costs.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

FreightCar America sustained by orders for export coal cars

February 22, 2011

Analysis of:Norfolk Southern to buy cars | www2.timesdispatch.com

Norfolk Southern Corporation recently announced their order of 3,000 steel and aluminum/steel hybrid coal cars for delivery in 2011-2012, matching an almost identical order of CSX Corporation for cars to be delivered in 2010-2011. Both companies are expected to use the cars primarily to transport coal destined for export from East Coast ports. FreightCar America seems to have a lock on the market for these cars, but is suffering from the general downturn in the coal car market.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Class 8 Diesel Engine Trends - Integrated Approaches Showing In Market Share

February 21, 2011

Truck-builders are moving toward putting their own engines in their own trucks / buses (internal / vertical integration) addressing a variety of issues including cost, profits, complexity, etc. Cummins Inc. and (now non-player) Caterpillar, Inc. share has been displaced by integrated approaches of Volvo, Paccar, Inc and Navistar Corporation. That trend is showing up in the Wards Communications numbers, which we our share "derived share-info" in the following.

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