GLG News by Rail Shipping Service Experts

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Freight Car deliveries and Orders exploded in fourth quarter

February 18, 2011

Analysis of:North American Fourth Quarter Rail Freight Car Orders | www.bloomberg.com

Rail car deliveries almost doubled from third quarter levels and orders advanced on the already healthy levels reported last October. Trinity Industries announced that their deliveries doubled and Greenbrier reported substantially higher deliveries from their previous respective quarters. Only FreightCar America and American Railcar have not reported fourth quarter activities, and they are expected to announce similar results.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Aftermarket Parts and Service Sector Really Growing - Can OEM's Take Share?

February 12, 2011

Sales of "part's" for vehicles / equipment in-service are the most profitable part of a durable goods business. Trucking is no different, but offers bigger growth potential today - and in the future. Those well-positioned in the after-warranty space will see more opportunity. With new truck pricing, tougher financing, etc. - older trucks are being put back into service and kept longer. Therein lies more opportunity.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Rail traffic decrease due to weather

February 11, 2011

Analysis of:Intermodal Traffic Takes First Dip in a Year | www.ttnews.com

Almost coincidentally with a storm in early 2010, weather hampered rail operations during the week ending February 5th. Carload traffic just matched the same week last year and intermodal traffic was down 1.5%. Both because traffic will return to normal and because last year’s storm occurred during this week, carload and intermodal traffic are expected to post major gains for the week which will end Feb. 12th.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Based backlogs, Greenbrier could be dominant railcar builder in 2011

February 4, 2011

Analysis of:Rail-car deliveries to reach 27,000 units in 2011, EPA says | www.progressiverailroading.com

The fourth quarter results from the railcar builder’s association had a big surprise: deliveries jumped from 3,706 in the third quarter to 7,333 cars in the fourth. One builder is expected to announce that their deliveries increased by 300%. The orders came in as expected, and The Greenbrier Companies, which has already reported their first quarter results, ended the year with what is expected to be the largest backlog of all the builders.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Railroad Internal Numbers Give Some Interesting Insight Into The Economy

January 30, 2011

Analysis of:AAR: “Modest gains” in Week 3 traffic | www.railwayage.com

Union Pacific Corporation, Berkshire Hathaway owned BNSF, CSX and Norfolk Southern have reported their good 4th Quarter numbers revenue growth in the teens with profits up double of that and OR's around 70. Everything except for autos and building materials look good, so what does that mean? Our esteemed colleague Toby Kolstad addresses this sector very well, so we'll just add some comments on how us truckers look at it.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Truckload Truckers' Numbers Looking UP - With A Couple (Good) Surprises

January 28, 2011

Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2010 Truckload (TL) Carriers are reporting better results across the board. Swift Transportation and Knight Transportation are even adding notable capacity! Heres a quick look...

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

“Modest gains” is too timid; Railroad carload traffic is “growing strongly”!

January 28, 2011

Analysis of:AAR: “Modest gains” in Week 3 traffic | www.railwayage.com

The AAR categorization of last week’s traffic gains as modest only looks at the absolute numbers: 1.5% carload growth compared to the same week last year. When the weekly gyrations in carload totals in past years and the severe weather that has plagued the nation since the start of this year are considered, any gains reflect a recovering economy and a strong railroad performance. Carload traffic is expected to grow 3% in 2011, which in normal times would reflect a booming economy.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

CSA 2010 Effect On Driver Shortage - Not So Much In The Near Term...

January 23, 2011

Nascent freight predictions have many fleets and investors turning their focus toward the impact of CSA 2010, the aging driver pool and other issues on "an impending acute" driver shortage. Our requests around what CSA 2010 really means - are up from shippers, logistics providers, smaller truckers and others watching the industry. We agree that the driver pool is changing, but we don't see it as the crisis and happening as quickly as some think. Here are some thoughts.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

UP Railroad had the biggest intermodal gains in railroad industry during 2011

January 21, 2011

Analysis of:UP Expects More Intermodal From Truckers | www.joc.com

The Union Pacific posted a gain of approximately 20% for intermodal traffic in 2010, outpacing Norfolk Southern (+18%) and CSX (16%) in the East, but also bettering privately held BNSF in the West for which the AAR shows an increase of 10% in intermodal loads. Imported containers contributed most of the additional traffic, but the railroads also claim to be gaining domestic market share, and they are backing their claims with purchase orders for over 5,000 new domestic container cars in 2011.

John SchulzIndependent Analyst - Contributing EditorLogistics Management Magazine

Best News for the Trucking Industry Has Nothing to Do With Trucking

January 19, 2011

Analysis of:U.S. Factories Buck Decline | online.wsj.com

American manufacturing, long written off as a economic loser, is making a comeback. For the first time since 1997, the number of manufacturing jobs grew last year by 1.2 percent, of 136,000 new jobs. And it's not a one-shot deal. Economists are predicting a 2.5 percent gain, or 330,000 new manufacturing jobs, this year.

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