GLG News by Rail Shipping Service Experts

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Navistar Class 8 Monthly Market Share In The Teens - Way Off Their Highs

January 17, 2011

Navistar Corporation Class 8 market share will most probably stay in the teems for a while. The November Wards Class 8 US share (customer deliveries) came at 16.3% for Navistar - off 10%+ from earlier in the year. Is it the 13 Liter versus 15 Liter question, Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) versus Selective Catalyst Reduction (SCR) or a little of both?

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Early gains in Intermodal may be misleading, but traffic is definitely up

January 14, 2011

Analysis of:Intermodal Traffic Rises 8.6% for Week | www.ttnews.com

Compared to the same week last year, railroad intermodal traffic reported by the AAR jumped 8.6%. However, the holiday schedules were different and that could have affected traffic totals a little. A better measure of this year compared to last will not be available for a couple of weeks yet.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Bring on the double dip! Gasoline to rise to $4.00 in 2011

January 3, 2011

Analysis of:Oil's surge in 2010 paves the way for $4 gasoline | finance.yahoo.com

Gasoline prices rose above $3.00 so rapidly in December that many are predicting that they will keep rising to over $4.00 per gallon. These same pundits say that isn’t that bad, since it represents only $750 per year per motorist. Phrased another way however, let’s say as a new energy tax of $1,200 per household, many would warn of an imminent recession.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Redone Revisited HOS Revisions - Time Rules Will Cost Truckers

December 28, 2010

Analysis of:Trucking industry unhappy with proposed drive time rules | www.thecitywire.com

Improved trucking profits come mostly from improved productivity - as in most businesses. Other regulations have direct equipment capital, computer-related and training costs, but the Hours-of-Service (HOS) rules affect utilization - the real driver of trucking profits.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Navistar: Where Are The 2010 MaxxForce-powered Trucks - And How Are They Doin’?

December 16, 2010

2010-compliant Navistar Corporation MaxxForce 13 Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) Class 8 trucks are hitting the road in limited quantities. The most anyone seems to have are JB Hunt with 300+ on the ground, Con-way Truckload with a hundred and few others, but many are having to wait for theirs. We are involved with smaller users, some with several dozen - and offer the following...

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Truck / Trailer “Requests For Financing” Offers Insights Into Higher Order Rates

December 9, 2010

Analysis of:Strong Class 8 orders bode well for trucking overall | fleetowner.com

The referenced article by Sean Kilcarr in Fleet Owner from earlier this week gives a good overview about the current increase in truck orders from the seasonal standpoint. We wrote a couple weeks ago (link) about financiers temporarily relaxing qualification standards to refill their portfolios with good credits - in order to help make their numbers look better. Here are some other issues to think about.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

SWFT IPO Terms Released - With Even Better Potential Today Than Before

December 1, 2010

Analysis of:Swift Announces $942.6 Million IPO | www.truckinginfo.com

Swift Transportation’s IPO registration announced in July had the terms released yesterday. The 67.3MM shares at the expected $13-$15 will result in a $943MM raise - and a market value of $1.8B. Current revenue is estimated to be almost $2.2B with its 12,000+ company-owned trucks and almost 4,000 independent contractors. This looks good in spite of the reported loss last year…

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Bigger trucks would cost more than they would save

November 23, 2010

Analysis of:US Trucking Industry Pushes For Heavier Trucks On Roads | news.morningstar.com

By some convoluted reasoning, legislators are being asked to save wear and tear on local roads by letting bigger trucks use the Federal Interstate Highway system. The Obama Administration is even endorsing their reasoning. Who let the big rigs get loaded in the first place? Allowing them on the Interstate System will only shift the maintenance costs from the people who made that mistake to the rest of the country.

Jay ThompsonPresident and General ManagerTransportation Business Associates

Why Are New Trucks Sales Up? A Big Reason Is…

November 21, 2010

Financing availability is the key to ultimately swinging demand - and some think we are seeing a “clean-up the portfolio” bubble for better credits on the part of financiers. We agree and offer the following.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Surplus railcars still abound, but not as much as the AAR reports

November 18, 2010

Analysis of:Railcar Owners Shrink Idled Car Fleet in October | www.joc.com

The AAR’s most recent tally of surplus railcars totaled over 318,000 units, or about 20% of the national fleet. However, rail traffic is down only 12% from its pre-recession highs. It is more likely that the car surplus is closer to 190,000. This is still a very high number and will depress demand for new cars and lease rates for many months to come, but it will eventually go away as opposed to the surplus numbers reported by the AAR.

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