GLG News by Railcar Market Experts (EU)

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railcars should continue to exceed early projections for profits in 2010

May 6, 2010

Analysis of:Norfolk Southern Beats on Revenues | finance.yahoo.com

All major US railroads reported outstanding gains in profits during the first quarter, although one was more dependent on increases in revenue per carload than the others. All reported operation ratios near 75%, well under the ratios posted last year but comparable to their performance in the fourth quarter. With coal traffic back to the “new normal” in the second quarter, the railroads should continue to outpace the earlier forecasts of both revenues and profits.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Trinity stumbles in new railcar market

April 30, 2010

Analysis of:Trinity Industries, Inc. Reports First Quarter Results | finance.yahoo.com

Following the merger of Thrall Car and Trinity Industries in 2001, the market share of the combined companies plunged from 65% to 25% during the last recession. Trinity made great progress in recovering their lost share in the years before the Great Recession, rising to well over 40% in 2009. This year, however, they appear to have lost it all, with just 20% of deliveries and 23% of all new orders during the first quarter.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

GATX marine unit may be profitable this year

April 27, 2010

Analysis of:Cargo shipments on Great Lakes quadruple in March | www.fox21online.com

In recent years, 25% of GATX revenue came from bulk shipments on the Great Lakes moving in their American Steamship Company carriers. In 2009, those revenues fell to just 14% of total income. The 400% gain in bulk shipping during March, the start of the Great Lakes cargo season, suggests that revenues may rebound strongly in 2010 and that this division may return to profitability.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

EPA and popular opinion spell big trouble for Coal and RR coal traffic

April 20, 2010

Analysis of:Coal in for a Bumpy Ride and a Final Decline | www.huffingtonpost.com

Colorado recently passed a bill that will require a utility to install natural gas fired boilers. In Oregon, the single coal fired plant in the state will also be converted to natural gas within five years. In the East, the tragedy in underground mine and the recent court order restricting mountain top removal mining in the same region have also diminished the prospects for coal in the future. Nationally, this product accounts for over 40% of railroad traffic and over 30% of railroad freight revenues.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

CSX profits rise mainly on rate increases for coal shipments

April 14, 2010

Analysis of:CSX sees shipments up across the board this year | finance.yahoo.com

While CSX reported that shipments were up across the board, they were speaking in general terms but referring specifically to traffic levels during the first quarter of 2009. Compared to the fourth quarter of last year, intermodal shipments were down 5% as might be expected for this seasonal traffic and carload traffic was only up 1%, mostly due to the lackluster growth (2%) of coal traffic. Profits increased so much because average freight rates for coal movements increased 12% since last quarter.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Great Expectations, but that’s all for the railcar builders

April 13, 2010

Analysis of:Greenbrier Q2 Hints At Rising Rail Demand | www.investors.com

Hope for the railcar builders springs eternal, but reality will eventually have to be considered. It is true that railroad traffic has rebounded from the depths to which it plunged last summer; that railcars that had been stored are being reactivated; and that railroad train speeds are decreasing, increasing the car cycle times and decreasing the number of loads per year that each railcar can handle. However, traffic has a long way to go before it reached the levels recorded a few years ago.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

UP must have had a very poor outlook for 2010

March 16, 2010

Analysis of:Union Pacific CEO sees signs of improved economy | www.themorningsun.com

Jim Young, CEO of the Union Pacific Railroad, recently stated that his railroad’s shipments are stronger this year than was anticipated; they must have anticipated a terrible year. Overall, UP shipments, as posted to the AAR, are up 6.5% over the levels posted during the 4th quarter, compared to 4.9% for their 3 other Class I cousins. More gains are expected later in the year as coal traffic increases after the utilities stop reducing their stockpiles.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

How does a 15% decline in traffic idle 30% of railcar fleet?

February 18, 2010

Analysis of:Railcars Return Slowly | www.joc.com

There are approximately 1.6 million railcars in North America, and various reports have shown over a third of them to be surplus to the needs of the railroad industry or its shippers during the past year. Traffic only declined 15% during the year, and there were only a few surplus cars before the recession began, so where did all the surplus equipment arise?

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railroad intermodal traffic will increase this year; it really will!

February 9, 2010

Analysis of:Stacked for Growth | www.joc.com

Railroad executives love reporters who serve up softball questions, like the one about their billions in CapEx expenditures in 2010, which is about the same percentage of revenue as in the past, or about their fast trains without mentioning how they are primarily due to low traffic levels.  As for their efforts to increase intermodal business this year, they almost cannot fail, given the depths of the decline in the summer of 2009 and the gains that have already been posted since then.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

NS needs to have its vision checked; most of its markets are unchanged

February 2, 2010

Analysis of:Norfolk Southern Executives: Seeing Improvement In Most Core Markets | money.cnn.com

Notwithstanding the recent news release that business conditions are improving in most of the railroad's core markets, the weekly numbers released by the AAR for January show traffic gains in only one are area (automobile and auto parts traffic) over last year’s numbers for the same weeks. However, the usual bounce from the holiday lows is still in progress and there may be some wishful thinking that the numbers will go even higher.

Previous Page : 12345678910Next51 to 60 of 423