GLG News by Railcar Market Experts (EU)

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Wind energy continues to eat into coal’s domain

January 29, 2010

Analysis of:Record Year for New Wind Power Installations in the U.S. | www.energyonline.com

As recently as last January, the EIA of the Department of Energy was forecasting an increase of over 6 Gigawatts of new coal fired electrical power and only 2 Gigawatts of new wind energy. At year end, the totals were a little different, with wind power increasing over 9 Gigawatts and coal fired electric installations totaling only 4.8 Gigawatts. These trends do not bode well for rail transportation.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Railroad traffic is good coincident indicator

January 22, 2010

Analysis of:Railroads Signal a Tepid US Economic Recovery | abcnews.go.com

Like the canary in the coal mine, railroad traffic is a good indicator of what is happening now, but don’t try to see the future in the weekly AAR carload and intermodal reports. Rail carload traffic showed mixed signs in the fourth quarter and intermodal loads showed no real improvement after seasonality adjustments. That’s not very encouraging to those expecting to see a big jump in the GDP for the fourth quarter or for continued growth in 2010.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Rail Fans are usually lousy railroad investors

January 18, 2010

Analysis of:Freight trains make big comeback in nation's transportation network | www.latimes.com

Traditionally, they only way railroads made real money in the past was by selling their properties to other companies at inflated prices that anticipated better earning than would ever develop. Too much is made of the fuel efficiency of a railroad operation and too little is said of the long delivery times by railroad compared to transport by highway, and little mention is ever made of the dependence of railroads on the movement of coal.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Rising tides cans sink some boats as well as lift them

December 6, 2009

Analysis of:Freight Adds Weight on Broad Rally | www.thestreet.com

For some railcar builders, the recovery will be measured in years, not months, and they may be the lucky ones. It is too early to confirm, but there may have been a fundamental shift in railroad traffic, and not all builders are positioned to benefit from the recovery in railroad traffic that is expected in 2010. Only time will tell if there will be another industry shakeout like the early 1980’s.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Mr. Buffet, buying a real railroad is not like in the board game.

November 6, 2009

Analysis of:Buffett: Railroad business is 'in tune with the future' | www.usatoday.com

Hardly anyone can resist the temptation to by a railroad in the game of “Monopoly.” They are reasonably priced, have OK earnings potential, and if all four are owned, they have outsized rental rates and the payment rates with sites on all four sides of the board. In real life however, railroads are rarely cheap compared to their earnings and the STB will keep anyone from owning more than one. So why would such an astute investor as Warren Buffet purchase one?

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Freightcar America has a strong balance sheet; but that’s all!

October 3, 2009

Analysis of:FreightCar America: A Long-Term Bargain Today | stocks.investopedia.com

Freightcar America is a fine company with an old pedigree and a reputation for producing some of the best coal cars in America. Although the company has no debt, it also has few prospects for growth, since it seems that almost everyone, want to decrease coal usage in the future. While it has designs for other car types, it has never produced any of these in sufficient quantities to offset any substantial decline that it may be facing in its coal car business.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Continued Rise in rail traffic is far from certain

September 28, 2009

Analysis of:Back On Track? | finance.yahoo.com

The weekly AAR railroad traffic report is an excellent real-time indicator of the health of the economy. Unfortunately, the volume changes, even when measured over many weeks, are generally so small that they are dismissed by most observers. Moreover, the freight rate increases pushed by the railroads during the past few years have blurred the falling traffic levels behind a screen of rising revenues and profits.

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

NS is tooting is own horn too loudly on fuel efficiency!

September 16, 2009

Analysis of:Norfolk Southern's Sustainability Report Highlights Carbon Footprint, Improved Fuel Economy | finance.yahoo.com

Norfolk Southern rightly claims that it has increased it fuel efficiency by 10% during the past ten years; but that achievement is less than half of what the other major carriers in the U.S. have achieved during the same period. The BNSF has notched a 24% gain, the UP has made a 23% improvement, and its Eastern competitor, CSX has managed a 17% in just the last seven years. So what is there to brag about?

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

If rail volumes are up by 8%, why are earnings forecasts up 20%?

September 15, 2009

Analysis of:The planes, trains and automobiles rally | money.cnn.com

Freight transportation volumes and freight company earnings have always been a good indicator of how the overall economy is doing, and the current transport trends appear to be support the conclusion that the economy has stopped contracting and is now expanding. However, with rail traffic up only between 4% and 8% on the four largest US carriers over the totals posted for the second quarter, why are earnings forecasted to grow by 18% to 25% from the same period?

Toby KolstadPresidentRail Theory Forecasts

Rail Traffic is up slightly, mostly due to Clunker program

September 7, 2009

Analysis of:AAR Reports Rail Traffic Continues to Register Gains Rail Carloadings at Highest Level Since December 2008 | www.aar.org

The volume of railroad traffic for the week ending August 29th was the highest since the end of 2008 and continued the slight upward trend in weekly car loadings that began in early July. Most of the gains appeared to be related to the cash-for-clunkers program, which means it may not continue in coming weeks.

Previous Page : 234567891011Next61 to 70 of 423