Is the Lube Market Really Recession Resistant?
March 6, 2009
Hot Lube Markets Will Weather Downturn | www.imakenews.com
The lubricant market has many segments and one should be careful broadly characterizing it as "recession resistant" or "capable of weathering a downturn" as the article title implies. Certainly the lube market for transportation engine oil is relatively stable due to the high number of vehicles already on the road, all of which must be maintained. However, half of the lubricant market is for products consumed in manufacturing processes, a sector of the global economy suffering significant loss of demand. Especially hard hit has been automobile manufacturing where volumes are down 30-40% from 2008. The process oil and metalworking fluids segments are suffering from substantial demand loss and should not be considered "recession resistant".
Stimulus Impact on Chemicals will be Modest
March 5, 2009
President's stimulus bill: will it help the chemical industry? | www.icis.com
The author continues to investigate and comment on the impact the Economic Stimulus Package will have on the chemicals industry. Consensus is building that the impact will be modest, especially in light of the substantial drop in demand the chemical industry has suffered the last six months. Producers most likely to benefit will be those supplying chemicals in to concrete, asphalt and commercial building products such as paints, plastics and adhesives. The impact will likely be extended over three years, with much of the demand coming in 2010.
Impact of the Economic Stimulus on Specialty Chemicals
February 19, 2009
US stimulus throws lifeline to construction | www.ft.com
The impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (aka "Obama Stimulus package") on the specialty chemicals industry, specifically paint and coatings, is becoming clearer as details emerge about the type, location and timing of spending. Construction and infrastructure projects will create new surfaces that need the protection of paints and coatings. Suppliers of these specialized industrial coatings include Sherwin William, PPG, RPM, Valspar and Akzo Nobel. Most of these coatings are based on epoxy and polyurethane chemistry, so the suppliers of these resins will also be winners including Hexion, Dow Chemical, Bayer MaterialScience and Huntsman. The roughly $300 billion of construction and infrastructure projects are expected to create $750 million to $2.25 billion of demand for paints and coatings over three years. This equates to about 2-3%/yr of growth - only modestly stimulating in an industry that lost 9% volume in 2008 and is expected to lose another 7-10% in 2009.
The Acquisition of Rio's Packaging Group Will Test Amcor's Flexibility
February 10, 2009
Australia's Amcor eyes part of Rio packaging unit | www.reuters.com
The former Alcan flexibles business is clearly an orphan in Rio's portfolio. However, the absorption of this business into Amcor's flexible's unit creates another set of issues for its current and anticipated customer base. Corporate culture will play into an effective assimilation and strain the prospective value of this marriage. Too often overlooked in favor of the immediate financial ramifications, the ability to strategically mesh two businesses and create real value for the customer is the key to longer term value.
Too Much Focus on DOW's Near-Term
February 9, 2009
Paulson urges Dow to close Rohm and Haas deal | money.cnn.com
There has been considerable focus on the ROH deal and the short-term implications to DOW. DOW had a clear strategy pre-deal to focus on specialty chemicals and to divest away from commodity chemicals. Contract language is not the only reason this deal should go through. Management should stick to pre-deal plan (for which they received broad support) and focus on the long-term vision for the company. Moving away from commodity chemicals and focusing on specialty chemicals is vital to the long-term health of the company.
The Real Challenge at Smurfit-Stone: A New Business Model
February 3, 2009
Smurfit-Stone Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy | www.paperage.com
Building a sustainable container board and packaging business, capable of delivering value to stakeholders in the long run, requires more than an acquisition strategy and the leverage of low cost funding. More important is the management accumen to coalesce a corporate culture that understands how value is created with the commitment to cascade that throughout the organization. The Smurfit-Stone model has been fraught with nepotism and a short term willingness to exploit pricing for volume to mask outdated operations and unenlightened acquisitions. Today, the real challenge of Chapter 11 is to demostrate to stakeholders they understand those realities and are committed to driving forward with a new business paradigm.
The Independent Petrochemical Producers Are Ready
January 21, 2009
LBO Burden May Force Ineos, Georgia Gulf Bankruptcy (Update2) | www.bloomberg.com
Production activity in petrochemicals appears to be restarting. Ineos, LyondellBasell, and Georgia Gulf have optimized their operations.
January 16, 2009
Equistar to reopen La Porte olefins plant | houston.bizjournals.com
Lyondell is using the flexibility of their ethylene production system to optimize their costs.
Some Good News for Petrochemicals
January 15, 2009
CPC to Restart No. 4 Naphtha Cracker as Market Demand Improves | www.bloomberg.com
Restarting of this cracker in Taiwan is an indication of improved profitability in ethylene, and maybe improving demand.
“The worst I’ve ever seen!,” in the Petrochemical Market
December 20, 2008
Equistar to Temporarily Idle Second Olefins Unit | www.marketwatch.com
The shuttering of Lyondell's and Westlake's ethylene facilities brings operable capacity to about 70% of nameplate, and utilization rates below 65%. By closing Chocolate Bayou, Lyondell most likely, stands to improve their net cash flow.
Shale gas abundance provides new options for energy companies
February 13, 2012
Chesapeake Energy bites the natural gas bullet
January 25, 2012
Flurry of newbuild drilling rig deliveries in 2012 may dampen rig rates
January 20, 2012
Talisman joins the ranks of cautious E&P companies
January 12, 2012
Early signs of caution begin to cloud frontier exploration and production
January 4, 2012