GLG News by Rigid Plastic Packaging Experts

Michael Brown, Managing Partner

Michael BrownManaging PartnerTZ Chemicals 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Is the Lube Market Really Recession Resistant?

March 6, 2009

Hot Lube Markets Will Weather Downturn | www.imakenews.com

The lubricant market has many segments and one should be careful broadly characterizing it as "recession resistant" or "capable of weathering a downturn" as the article title implies.  Certainly the lube market for transportation engine oil is relatively stable due to the high number of vehicles already on the road, all of which must be maintained.  However, half of the lubricant market is for products consumed in manufacturing processes, a sector of the global economy suffering significant loss of demand.  Especially hard hit has been automobile manufacturing where volumes are down 30-40% from 2008.  The process oil and metalworking fluids segments are suffering from substantial demand loss and should not be considered "recession resistant".

Michael Brown, Managing Partner

Michael BrownManaging PartnerTZ Chemicals 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Stimulus Impact on Chemicals will be Modest

March 5, 2009

President's stimulus bill: will it help the chemical industry? | www.icis.com

The author continues to investigate and comment on the impact the Economic Stimulus Package will have on the chemicals industry.  Consensus is building that the impact will be modest, especially in light of the substantial drop in demand the chemical industry has suffered the last six months.  Producers most likely to benefit will be those supplying chemicals in to concrete, asphalt and commercial building products such as paints, plastics and adhesives.  The impact will likely be extended over three years, with much of the demand coming in 2010.

Michael Brown, Managing Partner

Michael BrownManaging PartnerTZ Chemicals 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Impact of the Economic Stimulus on Specialty Chemicals

February 19, 2009

US stimulus throws lifeline to construction | www.ft.com

The impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (aka "Obama Stimulus package") on the specialty chemicals industry, specifically paint and coatings, is becoming clearer as details emerge about the type, location and timing of spending.  Construction and infrastructure projects will create new surfaces that need the protection of paints and coatings. Suppliers of these specialized industrial coatings include Sherwin William, PPG, RPM, Valspar and Akzo Nobel.  Most of these coatings are based on epoxy and polyurethane chemistry, so the suppliers of these resins will also be winners including Hexion, Dow Chemical, Bayer MaterialScience and Huntsman. The roughly $300 billion of construction and infrastructure projects are expected to create $750 million to $2.25 billion of demand for paints and coatings over three years.  This equates to about 2-3%/yr of growth - only modestly stimulating in an industry that lost 9% volume in 2008 and is expected to lose another 7-10% in 2009.

Gary CrutchfieldAdjunct Professor of BusinessGLENVILLE STATE COLLEGE 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

The Acquisition of Rio's Packaging Group Will Test Amcor's Flexibility

February 10, 2009

Australia's Amcor eyes part of Rio packaging unit | www.reuters.com

The former Alcan flexibles business is clearly an orphan in Rio's  portfolio. However, the absorption of this business into Amcor's flexible's unit creates another set of issues for its current and anticipated customer base. Corporate culture will play into an effective assimilation and strain the prospective value of this marriage. Too often overlooked in favor of the immediate financial ramifications, the ability to strategically mesh two businesses and create real value for the customer is the key to longer term value.

Michael Brown, Managing Partner

Michael BrownManaging PartnerTZ Chemicals 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Too Much Focus on DOW's Near-Term

February 9, 2009

Paulson urges Dow to close Rohm and Haas deal | money.cnn.com

There has been considerable focus on the ROH deal and the short-term implications to DOW.  DOW had a clear strategy pre-deal to focus on specialty chemicals and to divest away from commodity chemicals.  Contract language is not the only reason this deal should go through.  Management should stick to pre-deal plan (for which they received broad support) and focus on the long-term vision for the company.  Moving away from commodity chemicals and focusing on specialty chemicals is vital to the long-term health of the company.

Gary CrutchfieldAdjunct Professor of BusinessGLENVILLE STATE COLLEGE 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

The Real Challenge at Smurfit-Stone: A New Business Model

February 3, 2009

Smurfit-Stone Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy | www.paperage.com

Building a sustainable container board and packaging business, capable of delivering value to stakeholders in the long run, requires more than an acquisition strategy and the leverage of low cost  funding.   More important is the management accumen to coalesce a corporate culture that understands how value is created with the commitment to cascade that throughout the organization. The Smurfit-Stone model has been fraught with nepotism and a short term willingness to exploit pricing for volume to mask outdated operations and unenlightened acquisitions.  Today, the real challenge of Chapter 11 is to demostrate to stakeholders they understand those realities and are committed to driving forward with a new business paradigm.

Kevin BoyleConsultantKEVIN L BOYLE 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

The Independent Petrochemical Producers Are Ready

January 21, 2009

LBO Burden May Force Ineos, Georgia Gulf Bankruptcy (Update2) | www.bloomberg.com

Production activity in petrochemicals appears to be restarting.  Ineos, LyondellBasell, and Georgia Gulf have optimized their operations.

Kevin BoyleConsultantKEVIN L BOYLE 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

A Smart Move by Lyondell

January 16, 2009

Equistar to reopen La Porte olefins plant | houston.bizjournals.com

Lyondell is using the flexibility of their ethylene production system to optimize their costs.

Kevin BoyleConsultantKEVIN L BOYLE 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

Some Good News for Petrochemicals

January 15, 2009

CPC to Restart No. 4 Naphtha Cracker as Market Demand Improves | www.bloomberg.com

Restarting of this cracker in Taiwan is an indication of improved profitability in ethylene, and maybe improving demand.

Kevin BoyleConsultantKEVIN L BOYLE 
          What is a GLG Leader?|The Gerson Lehrman Group&reg; (GLG) Leader Program<sup>SM</sup> is our premium Member Program<sup>SM</sup>. Those identified as GLG Leaders are in the top 5% of GLG CouncilRank and have an exclusivity agreement with GLG.

“The worst I’ve ever seen!,” in the Petrochemical Market

December 20, 2008

Equistar to Temporarily Idle Second Olefins Unit | www.marketwatch.com

The shuttering of Lyondell's and Westlake's ethylene facilities brings operable capacity to about 70% of nameplate, and utilization rates below 65%. By closing Chocolate Bayou, Lyondell most likely, stands to improve their net cash flow.

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