GLG News by Semiconductor Experts in GLG Member Programs (California)

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

Flash Not Poised to Kill off HDDs, Not Now, Not Ever

December 17, 2008

Analysis of:Flash Makers Will Need $1 Trillion To Take Over the Disk Drive Storage Market, Skeptic Says | techpulse360.com

HDD makers need not fear that SSDs will ruin their business.  It's not time to head for the hills.  The basic economics of both HDD and SSD will prevent this from happening anytime in the foreseeable future, yet SSDs will do well in their own right when they are matched with appropriate markets.

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

Samsung's Shrewd Play to Manage Royalty Costs

November 4, 2008

Analysis of:Samsung Drops Bid to Buy SanDisk | www.businessweek.com

What is going on here?  Samsung is working in their shareholders' best interests, as is SanDisk.  In the end, the separation between these two interests is thwarting meaningful progress in negotiations.  Objective Analysis, in its Alerts, has outlined the impact this should have on each company.  We do not anticipate the consummation of this deal before the memory market returns to profitability in mid-2009.  See: http://www.Objective-Analysis/Reports

John BergChief Technology Officer AMERICAN SEMICONDUCTOR, INC.

When will Phase Change Memory make an Impact in the IC business?

July 1, 2008

Analysis of:Spansion: Numonyx' PCM is 'marketing fluff' | www.eetimes.com

Bertrand Cambou, CEO of Spansion, has an opinion on Numonyx' push into phase-change memories: "Phase-change memory is pure marketing fluff." Although Cambou is correct that existing Numonyx phase change memories are not ready for prime time, the situation will be quite different below 32nm, which is a technology node that Spansion may never reach, if it continues to hemorrhage cash as it is. Below 32nm, the issues surrounding FLASH will require an architectural change in order to scale products to the 22nm node and below. Phase change memory is a leading contender to replace the traditional double poly FLASH cell. Samsung, Hynix, and Numonyx are actively pursuing this technology. Mr. Cambou's company is behind the curve, as a failure to plan for the future in high tech is a plan for failure.

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

Large Sclae Solar is Nothing New

June 13, 2008

Analysis of:Calif. solar power test begins — in Israeli desert | www.msnbc.msn.com

Large scale solar energy plants are not new, but can be useful if fossil fuels maintain high prices. They can help put a cap on high energy costs, but since they are large-scale projects they take years to install. The impact of these on photovoltaics should be minimal.

James "Jim" CantorePresident & Chief AnalystJLC Associates LLC

If We Build It, A 450 mm Wafer Fab, Will Customers Come?

May 7, 2008

Analysis of:Will industry build 450-mm fabs? | www.eetimes.com

1. New Markets will be created, enabled by the 450mm revolution. 2. Opportunity is there for new equipment strategic alliances with major chip players. 3. Smarter, simpler electronics projects need very intelligent, very large 450mm wafer-based chips.

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

DRAMs Regularly Drag Semi Sales Down

April 15, 2008

Analysis of:DRAM Price Drops Hide Global Demand for Chips | www.toptechnews.com

The semiconductor market (excluding NAND and DRAM) tends to behave relatively well, with mild soft spots and less remarkable highs.  Add the schizophrenia endemic to memories and the whole complexion of the market changes to one of wild mood swings. Objective Analysis finds that the semiconductor market without DRAM and NAND is a more sedate haven for investors, but those with a flair for adventure may well choose to try and out-guess the DRAM and NAND markets to make a killing overnight.

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

Today's Semiconductor Slump Will end in late 2009

April 15, 2008

Analysis of:Gartner: Chip industry in 'indefinite' slowdown | www.computerworld.com

The semiconductor industry is undergoing a very predictable down cycle based upon excessive capital spending in 2006.  As it always does, demand will catch up to this spending in 2009, and the market should see another upswing similar to those in the past. In the mean time, all semiconductor companies will suffer from low earnings, and will cut capital spending.  These cuts will result in a late 2009 shortage that should last through 2010.  This shortage will drive higher prices and improved profitability.

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

Rumor Mill Indicates SSDs Closely Watched

April 11, 2008

Analysis of:Dell denies report of solid-state drive failures | www.computerworld.com

Solid-State Drives (SSDs) may be ahead of their time, but they are certainly generating a lot of press!  Companies who don't want to get left in the dust need both to understand this technology, and to understand why their customers would or would not like to purchase it.

John BergChief Technology Officer AMERICAN SEMICONDUCTOR, INC.

Intel and NAND FLASH: Santyana was correct; Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it

March 14, 2008

Analysis of:Analysis - Intel NAND woes and cardinal sins | www.electronicsweekly.com

Intel is a terrific company. Since 1985, it has focused mostly on MPU's, as the expense of everything else, and consequently, it has dominated the market. Prior to 1985, it was also a memory company - competing against the Japanese. Intel used GCA steppers - an utterly inferior product - while the Japanese uesed 1x projection systems - which made larger die with fewer defects. Who won? The Japanese, of course. Today it is not just the Japanese, but the Koreans as well - Samsung and Hynix.

John BergChief Technology Officer AMERICAN SEMICONDUCTOR, INC.

Is Micron spinning out its Image Sensor Division?

March 10, 2008

Analysis of:Bloodied Micron tries extreme (re)makeover | www.eetimes.com

Micron announced last week that its newly named sensor business, Aptina, will run as an independent division within Micron. The divsion will have independent sales, marketing and profit-and-loss functions in order to be more "responsive to the market." Aptina employs about 700 people and represented 12 percent of Micron's total net sales. Aptina will continue to use Micron's fabs but will be allowed to pursue manufacturing alliances with Asian foundries. This move is signaling that Micron is putting its sensor business for sale. Micron already breaks out the revenue and operating profit (loss) of its imaging business in in its annual and quarterly reports. The latest quarter saw the imaging business dip into the red. Selling this asset would be apropos for Micron, as sensors have little in common, either in manufacturing or in sales channels, with Micron's main business: DRAM and FLASH memories.

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