GLG News by Semiconductor Experts in GLG Member Programs (California)

James "Jim" CantorePresident & Chief AnalystJLC Associates LLC

How Can AMD Save Itself and Stay Independent? Is Nvidia AMD's Savior?

March 4, 2008

Analysis of:Nvidia-AMD: Deal or no deal? | www.eetimes.com

1. AMD got itself in a precarious position by failing to execute. 2. Nvidia acquiring AMD is not the solution. Nvidia does not need an AMD headache. Neither aspirin nor anything stronger will help Nvidia. 3. AMD needs financial and engineering resources.

James "Jim" CantorePresident & Chief AnalystJLC Associates LLC

What's Up With Yet Another Numonyx Delay?

March 3, 2008

Analysis of:Could it be another Numonyx delay? | www.eetimes.com

1. The NOR market is a money loser, no matter who the players are. 2. If Numonyx, (Intel + STMicroelectronics), was such a great money making proposition it would have been funded months ago. 3. The financial world is well aware that the last big NOR Flash venture between AMD and Fujitsu, Spansion, resulted in a public company that to date has never ever made a profit.

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

SanDisk/Toshiba Manufacturing Agreement Improves Manufacturing Flexibility

February 28, 2008

Analysis of:SanDisk, Toshiba sign MOU for new fab | www.bizjournals.com

SanDisk has done very well with its captive chip supply to work a business model that is, for the most part, vertically integrated.  As the company has grown, they are now looking at improvements on this model that will further enhance both their cost structure and their flexibility.  The new model should help SanDisk keep their advantageous cost structure while providing more flexibility than prior agreements have done.

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

The Semiconductor Cycle - A Factor Beyond Any Company's Control

February 25, 2008

Analysis of:Rumor: Micron-Nanya JV in the works | www.eetasia.com

The semiconductor cycle is here to stay.  It is driven by factors beyond the control of any single semiconductor maker.  Industry consolidation will occur, but it will be driven by the spiralling cost of manufacturing plants.  Industry cycles will not abate by the consilidation of the market unless only one supplier remains.

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

New PRAM a Boon for Intel's & ST's "Numonyx" Spin-Off

February 8, 2008

Analysis of:A Memory Breakthrough (MIT Technology Review) | www.technologyreview.com

An obscure new semiconductor memory technology called PRAM (or PCM) promises to eventually change the nature of the flash memory market.  Companies who are on top of PRAM, mainly Intel, STMicroelectronics (and their Numponyx spin-off) and Samsung are well positioned to capture this technology's success when it develops.  Energy Conversion Devices, the owner of the phase-change technology, will also benefit from royalties over the long term.  Spansion's not talking, so we don't know how this will play out for them, but BAE, Elpida, Hynix, and Qimonda are licensees, so they are likely to move in a similar direction.

James "Jim" CantorePresident & Chief AnalystJLC Associates LLC

AMD Looks Uphill: Bluster Dims Lost Luster

February 4, 2008

Analysis of:AMD: Is The Worst Over? | seekingalpha.com

Does AMD keep close enough tabs on the details? Risk underestimation cripples bold initiatives. Crisp execution and coordination of all the risks is something AMD needs to do better. AMD overpaid for ATI, ran short of cash and had to go overseas for capital.AMD will give up precious market share to Intel.AMD profitability remains just out of reach.At current market valuation AMD may be a takeover target.  

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

Is NAND Pushing DRAM out of the PC?

November 20, 2007

Analysis of:SanDisk Offers New Flash-Based Accelerator to Speed Up System Performance in Consumer Laptops and PCs | www.sandisk.com

DRAM companies will see faltering growth. OEMs with NAND strategies will prosper while others will lag behind. NAND companies are poised to tap into PC market growth.

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

Server Memories are Turning to NOR Flash

November 20, 2007

Analysis of:Spansion Unveils Plans for SONOS-based MirrorBit ORNAND Family | money.cnn.com

NOR flash is threatening the DRAM business in servers.  This will further harm the already-reeling DRAM makers.  Companies who make NOR flash will see larger growth over the long term than will companies with DRAM and no flash.

Nathan BrookwoodResearch FellowInsight 64

Intel’s 45nm Penryn: Cool Process but Ho-Hum Processor

November 13, 2007

Analysis of:Intel Ships Power-Efficient Penryn CPUs | www.pcworld.com

Intel's turned its PR apparatus on high today, trumpeting the launch of its first 45nm processors, code-named Penryn. The company can certainly claim credit as the first CPU vendor to ship 45nm products, but the products it launched now are merely warmed over versions of the mature 65nm designs it introduced last year. The good news is that these chips work in the same desktop, notebook and server platforms as the models they replace. This simplifies the qualification process for OEM system suppliers and end users. The bad news is that the new process improves the new chips' performance by ten to fifteen percent on average -- hardly anything to get excited about. We don't expect these new chips to have much impact on the competitive positions of Intel and AMD, but the new chips are roughly 30 percent smaller than the ones they replace, and thus will indirectly increase Intel's production capacity by about a third. This explains why Intel recently trimmed its CAPEX forecast.

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

Samsung 64Gb NAND a Look at the Far Future

November 8, 2007

Analysis of:Samsung Introduces 64 Gbit MLC NAND Chip | www.edn.com

The Samsung 64Gb NAND at the 30nm node is not only 2 process generations ahead of today's NAND production, but it appears to be a far larger chip than the company is likely to put into production.  It is fair to question how soon such a challenging device will find its way into volume production. Samsung's 30nm node process, with its charge-trapping technology, is likely to sprout a new royalty stream for Spansion.

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