GLG News by Semiconductor Experts in GLG Member Programs (US)

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

Flash Not Poised to Kill off HDDs, Not Now, Not Ever

December 17, 2008

Analysis of:Flash Makers Will Need $1 Trillion To Take Over the Disk Drive Storage Market, Skeptic Says | techpulse360.com

HDD makers need not fear that SSDs will ruin their business.  It's not time to head for the hills.  The basic economics of both HDD and SSD will prevent this from happening anytime in the foreseeable future, yet SSDs will do well in their own right when they are matched with appropriate markets.

Bhanu KapoorConsultant/OwnerMimasic

Instant Access to Emails and Web on Dell Laptops

December 17, 2008

Analysis of:Dell takes business laptops to new latitudes | www.itweb.co.za

Dell has announced and previewed Latitude ON technology that enables near-instant access to email, calendar, contacts, and the Web. This is an important announcement because of its likely impact on revolutionizing the way Laptops are used. Cellphones/PDAs have been taking away the use of some of the important applications on Laptops such as the emails and the use of Web. This can primarily be attributed to, (i) Near instant access of emails on phones, (ii) much longer battery life of phones allowing for near-always-on feeling, and (iii) the form factor of phones. However, the phones are also being used in presence of laptops due to the first two reasons.

Bhanu KapoorConsultant/OwnerMimasic

Blue-ray vs HD-DVD is not the same battle as VHS vs Betamax

December 16, 2008

Analysis of:High-Def Options Vie With Blu-ray | online.wsj.com

The article questions the importance of DVD players going forward and that's central to the Blue-ray vs HD-DVD battle. It is indeed no longer about DVD players anymore. And the advantages offered by Blue-ray over HD-DVD (15 GB vs 25 GB storage for Blue-ray) isn't significant enough to determine which format wins the game eventually. And most likely, no single format will win the game this time. In a world with ever increasing speeds of data communications and increasing performance of computing technologies, the software and not the hardware will be increasingly playing the video content and that means all competing formats will have an equal chance. Devices like Apple's iTV or simply your computer are on their way to become the storage medium of choice and software the natural choice for player. The advances in connection bandwidth will determine the quality of video that will make its way to homes and it favors 720p resolution as the next candidate for adoption.   

Bhanu KapoorConsultant/OwnerMimasic

Yahoo and Microsoft Deal and the Evolution of Search Business Dealings

December 16, 2008

Analysis of:Yahoo curbs severance pay in event of a takeover | www.businessweek.com

Yahoo’s overhauling of severance program that could have saddled potential with a huge bill appears to be one of the last bottlenecks to be removed for a potential deal with Microsoft. The other two major events since the failure of Microsoft’s original offer have been the stepping down of Jerry Yang as the CEO of Yahoo and hiring of former Yahoo executive Qi Lu to run Microsoft's struggling Online Services Group. Assuming that a deal will likely happen in future, we will complete a full circle in the search business dealings so far as Microsoft and Yahoo are concerned.

Donald RheaultFounderOurSalesRep

The timing is good for Xilinx to add Samsung as its 40nm foundry, but there are risks.

December 8, 2008

Analysis of:Samsung foundry poaches Xilinx 40-nm business, says report | www.eetimes.com

Xilinx can quicken its entry into 40nm FPGA production using Samsung, but risks losing the capacity if and when Samsung gets busier. Obviously, Samsung would rather sell its own branded products as the margin is higher. The risks for Xilinx are mitigated because of the similar foundries offered by IBM and Chartered where Xilinx can move if bumped by Samsung. A significant risk occurs if Xilinx is repaced at UMC by a FPGA start up- this would set up a time line where as business gets better and Samsung needs the 40nm capacity for its own products Xilinx is forced to go to IBM or Chartered because it cant go back to UMC. The timing is good for Xilinx because it should be a long while for business to get better for Samsung, and it gets Xilinx into 40nm process now.

Afarin BellisarioFounder and PresidentTranstrategy, Inc

LED Displays are Here to Stay

December 5, 2008

Analysis of:Surge in sales of LED-backlit notebook PCs | compoundsemiconductor.net

The sales of PC's with LED based displayes have surged 63% in the most recent quarter and are expected to reach 2.1 million units in 2008, capturing a 5.4% market share. The trand is expceted to continue.

Jim HandyDirectorObjective Analysis

Samsung's Shrewd Play to Manage Royalty Costs

November 4, 2008

Analysis of:Samsung Drops Bid to Buy SanDisk | www.businessweek.com

What is going on here?  Samsung is working in their shareholders' best interests, as is SanDisk.  In the end, the separation between these two interests is thwarting meaningful progress in negotiations.  Objective Analysis, in its Alerts, has outlined the impact this should have on each company.  We do not anticipate the consummation of this deal before the memory market returns to profitability in mid-2009.  See: http://www.Objective-Analysis/Reports

Thomas O'BrienOwnerDIGITAL AMPLIFIER COMPANY

Paradigm Shift in Storage, SSD and HDD

October 13, 2008

Analysis of:TDK Crams 260 GB Into 1.8-inch HDD, Sets a New Density Benchmark | gizmodo.com

Soon, there will a paradigm shift in storage.  This shift is as much driven by economics as by technological developments.  The uses of large storage in some devices will become prevalent and change our view of memory forever.

Donald RheaultFounderOurSalesRep

The potential is great, but the problems waiting to be overcome may be greater.

October 2, 2008

Analysis of:New technology to make smaller, smarter, faster computer chips | www.business-standard.com

There periodically appears seeming breakthroughs in process that could change the fundamental way semiconductors are made or perform. This new technique could be very significant because of its impact on speed and power Ther have been other "breakthroughs" like GaAs and SOS substrates that have limited success due to cost, performance, or other unforseen problems. The good news is this would use the same existing factories with a change in lithographic process. What is not yet known is performance over temperature, unknown quantum effects, potential frequency resonance, etc. The new techniques major impact would be on niche semi companies nibbling on the speed/power edge using exotic processes, and on end use devices by reducing power and increasing processing power- extending  Moore's Law.                

Neil KellySemiconductor Test ConsultantNeil Kelly

Eagle finds a white knight.

September 4, 2008

Analysis of:Teradyne Coughs Up $250M For Eagle Test | www.forbes.com

Industry consolidation in this case will not lead to a reduction in available products in the short term, so is of little immediate benefit to the industry as a whole.  Verigy will be the strongest out of the remaining SOC test companies as they alone benefit from the economics of single platform, and will compete with a Teradyne that is financially weaker after the Eagle acquisition.  Eagle doesn't have any test technology that isn't already part of Teradyne's FLEX platform - indeed Teradyne has recently beaten Eagle in head-to-head competition.

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