GLG News by Spectrum Auction and Access Experts (North America)

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics

Hardball 1/5/10: Would NSN Need to Make Mr. Smith its CEO to Get a Deal Done?

January 5, 2010

Analysis of:Ciena Shares Soar on Nokia Rumor | www.thestreet.com

It is our understanding that Ciena has a poison pill provision that was put in place a couple of years ago. It would just add to the hostility in the event of a hostile takeover. We just do not believe that Ciena’s CEO, Gary Smith, will be quick to give up his powerful position at the company.

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics

Hardball 1/4/10: Is AT&T Forcing the Filing of an Antitrust Case by the Feds?

January 4, 2010

Analysis of:AT&T and the end of POTS | telephonyonline.com

Last summer, we wrote, “One wonders whether [AT&T’s] CEO would partially welcome [the] prospect [of an antitrust suit] as a way to unload large assets from this unwieldy monstrosity created by his predecessor.” The carrier’s extraordinary response back to the FCC that it wants to dump the PSTN could result in the start of such thinking by the government.  It certainly fits in with well with AT&T’s current mentality that it wants to spend as little as possible on its networks.

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics

Hardball 1/3/10: Expect Google’s Nexus One More Competitive with Apple’s iPhone

January 3, 2010

Analysis of:Google's Very Own Android Launch | www.thestreet.com

There have been questions over whether any handset company could ever rival Apple’s iPhone. We recently wrote: “It appears that Verizon’s Droid just does not reach the level of attraction of the iPhone.”  However, we expect the Nexus One, which will offer a new version of the operating system, to be very much like its arch-competitor. 

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics

Hardball 1/2/10: Calix IPO: Supplier’s 4thQ Should be Impressive

January 2, 2010

Analysis of:Next Year's Big IPO | online.barrons.com

CenturyLink does a large amount of business with Calix. The supplier is having a hard time meeting its ship dates at the moment because it has been slammed with orders from the largest IOC. It is certainly outside of normal production for Calix.

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics

Hardball 1/01/10: Calix IPO Could Achieve New Access Paradigm with Cyan

January 1, 2010

Analysis of:IPOs make a comeback in 2009 setting stage for a busy year of companies going public in 2010 | www.sfexaminer.com

In terms of excitement level to get the valuation the highest, Telecom Pragmatics still believes that nothing would compare with Calix combining with Cyan in terms of impact.The two CEOs would have the cachet to redefine and expand the meaning of access networks.   Or they could just outright proclaim that Cyan is definitely an access play.

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics

Hardball 12/22/09: Calix’s IPO to Bolster Access Play?

December 21, 2009

Analysis of:Tech IPOs filed so far have shades of dot-com bubble | www.marketwatch.com

In a recent article, we talked about the possibility that Calix’s IPO was about it and Cyan getting together. There is an alternative explanation.   It could be to become a more well-rounded access supplier.

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics

Hardball 12/19/09: Case for Telstra’s Open Network Being Advantageous

December 19, 2009

Analysis of:Telstra, Australia lay groundwork for proposed broadband plan | www.fiercetelecom.com

The concept of open networks has been around for a long time. Any phone, video, etc. service provider can take advantage of an infrastructure. While it is getting a great amount of legs internationally, it has not done so in the US too much.

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics

Hardball 12/15/09: PR Spin of Verizon’s Restricted FiOS in Greater Boston Area

December 15, 2009

Analysis of:Verizon enhances its Massachusetts DSL footprint | www.fiercetelecom.com

There is sure a nice ring to the press release title.  It says: “DSL...Service to More Than 17,000 Consumers in New Neighborhoods in 17 Massachusetts Communities.” It does not take long to figure out that this announcement is quite underwhelming.

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics

Hardball 12/14/09: Backhaul Opportunity for Hybrid Fiber/Microwave Limited

December 14, 2009

Analysis of:FiberTower Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Listing Compliance Notice | www.marketwatch.com

There can be little doubt that especially with Verizon’s big push for LTE, that the backhaul activity will be huge over the next few years. At the same time, there may be already one too many players focused in the hybrid fiber/microwave alternative carrier space. There are at least four competitors in the US, which have been mostly dedicated to wireless backhaul.

Samuel GreenholtzPrincipalTelecom Pragmatics

Hardball 12/13/09: Market Stranglehold Removed from Canadian Wireless Incumbents

December 13, 2009

Analysis of:Canada Rule Change Could Shake Up Telecom Market | seekingalpha.com

Earlier, the Canadian government’s rules on ownership ensured the dominant positions of a few large carriers, including Rogers Communications and BCE.  The overruling is definitely “a populist decision to ensure increased competition in wireless in Canada.” It also provides a better shot for smaller, regional players to make penetration.

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