GLG News by Steel Experts

Bradford MillsChief Executive OfficerMANDALAY RESOURCES CORPORATION

The Platinum Supply is set to decline in 2009 - Will it be enough to rebalance supply?

January 5, 2009

Analysis of:Russia Norilsk to cut nickel, palladium output | www.reuters.com

The demand for Platinum has fallen sharply in the last several months and with it the prices of platinum, palladium and Rhodium. In the face of these sharp price falls, producers are delaying capital spending, cutting projects and  closing marginal mines. To date these supply cuts amount to some 400,000 ounce of annual Platinum production in 2009 or some 5-6%  of annual supply. Will these cuts be enough to rebalance supply/demand fundamentals in 2009?

Jeff MoserPresidentWest Branch LLC

Dow M&A: Sound Strategy or CEO Hubris?

December 18, 2008

Analysis of:Dow Chemical: Cutting Jobs Instead of the Merger Price | blogs.wsj.com

Dow CEO Andrew Liveris bet the future of the entire company on his 2-stage M&A based transformation:  Sell commodity businesses into a Kuwaiti JV and use the proceeds to buy Rohm & Haas.  Priced at obsolete valuations both of these deals now seem questionable.  Any fallout could cost Dow and Liveris dearly. 

Jeff MoserPresidentWest Branch LLC

Will the Sun Set on New Polysilicon Investments?

December 17, 2008

Analysis of:Dow Corning, Hemlock To Invest Up To $3 Billion In Polysilicon Growth | money.cnn.com

Obama's call for significant new renewable energy generation may drive the need for more solar / PV capacity.   Dow Corning and Hemlock may be relying on this prospect to pay back their $3 Billion polysilicon investment.

Paul GlantzPresidentMetal Recycling Consultants

Indicators Show Base Metal Prices are Establishing a Floor

December 11, 2008

Analysis of:Rio Cuts 14,000 Jobs, Spending as Demand Falters | www.bloomberg.com

Rio announcing major job cuts and expense reduction has major bullish inclination to base metal pricing.

Jeff MoserPresidentWest Branch LLC

Gulf to Gulf - US Petrochemical industry taking flight?

December 11, 2008

Analysis of:Dow Chemical to cut 5000 jobs | money.cnn.com

Cheaper feedstocks and new ethylene capacity in the Middle East have threatened the critical mass of US petrochemical infrastructure.  Redundant plants may be permanently closed as new production grows offshore.

Jeff MoserPresidentWest Branch LLC

Green Energy needs subsidies to compete

December 10, 2008

Analysis of:Alternative energy ideas power down | www.delawareonline.com

Wind and solar power are effective options for satisfying marginal generating demand during peak consumption periods.  If conventional generating capacity is sufficient then the 'Green' alternatives become economically disadvantaged.

Gene PlavnikPresidentHeat Technologies Inc

Oil and Gas Exploration - It Is Not So Bad, After All

December 10, 2008

Analysis of:ABB Wins Offshore Contracts Worth $150M | www.oilandgasonline.com

1. There is global economic slowdown. 2. During the growth period a very strong equipment upgrade push/momentum was created. 3. This momentum eventually will be reduced, but it may take a while.

Bradford MillsChief Executive OfficerMANDALAY RESOURCES CORPORATION

Metal prices have more to fall before the correction is over

December 5, 2008

Analysis of:Metal prices fall further than during Great Depression | www.telegraph.co.uk

Despite the 50%+ falls in the prices of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, Pgms, and Aluminium since early 2008, most metal prices are only just now reaching the average cash cost of industry production. After the 9/11 event, demand destruction in the Western Economies was some 10% within 2 months and commodity prices fell, in most cases, below 90% of all producers cash costs. Since the third quarter of this year estimates of demand destruction are between 15-30% in the Western Economies. Supply in most cases has not yet adjusted anywhere near enough to rebalance this reduced demand. Expect inventories of raw metals to rise rapidly in the first half of 2009 and prices to fall another 25-50% forcing producers to take more decisive action to reduce supply. Comparisons with the Great Depression make interesting headlines but are highly misleading.

Bradford MillsChief Executive OfficerMANDALAY RESOURCES CORPORATION

BHP/RIO Deal Collapse Should Be No Surprise.

December 1, 2008

Analysis of:ASIA-Death of a Megadeal: BHP Ends Its Pursuit of Rio | online.wsj.com

The BHP/Rio deal was always a long shot. Antitrust issues were formidable and the success of the deal was always going to be hugely dependant of regulator demanded asset sales requirements. Given the collapse in asset values in the last three months, any value for synergies would have been overwhelmed by the prospect of low realizations on assets sales over the next two years. Other factors were undoubtedly the proposed list of asset sales from the EU which apparently had a lot more Iron ore on it that BHP hoped. Finally, Rio's large debt and unfunded pension position look decidedly more risky in the current commodity price environment. The bottom line is that a difficult deal in good times became impossible in difficult times and BHPB rightly pulled the plug. Investors should be concerned that BHP ever pursued this as a hostile transaction given the enormous complexity and regulatory risks of the proposed transaction.

Jeff MoserPresidentWest Branch LLC

Will Green Government Suffocate Trucking?

November 26, 2008

Analysis of:Incentivise the transport industry to cut emissions | www.publicservice.co.uk

European nations have used taxes and tolls to 'optimize' truck freight tonnage and reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.  With an aggressive environmental agenda the new US government may seek to harmonize domestic standards with the Europeans. 

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